ITM Plus - Oaklawn Park Primer
By Nick Tammaro
One of the sport’s premier meets begins Friday in Hot Springs, Arkansas when Oaklawn kicks off a 65-day stand with Friday’s 10-race card. Here’s an overview of some of the trainers who you’ll see dominate the racing programs with an eye on last year’s performances and that of prior years.
STEVE ASMUSSEN
Steve Asmussen is not only the all-time winningest trainer in American thoroughbred racing, but he is at Oaklawn as well. He won the training title again in 2023-2024 and is an overwhelming favorite to do so this year. Asmussen overwhelms with numbers, as he sent 461 starters out last year, over double the next highest amount.
Asmussen has a 16% strike rate and a $1.32 ROI at Oaklawn over the last five years. He was 14% with a $1.24 ROI in 2023 and 15% with a $1.38 ROI in ’23-’24. You’ll see Asmussen use his sons, Erik and Keith, in the saddle more than ever, which he has throughout 2024 barring when the latter was sidelined with an injury. When you really dig into Asmussen’s stats, you find a lot of the same numbers overall. He is generally 16-18% with an ROI hovering around $1.40. In general, betting Asmussen’s runners blindly is a horrible wagering proposition. Interestingly, there’s one category where you should take a second look at his starters. Over the last 5 years, he is 19% with a $2.16 ROI stretching out non-maidens at Oaklawn. This includes a handful of stakes starters, but also plenty of claimers and allowance horses.
KENNY MCPEEK
There’s no denying McPeek has had a banner year in 2024, and it started with last year’s Oaklawn meet. He is 17% overall at Oaklawn over the last 5 years, good for a $2.20 ROI. At last year’s meet he was a very strong 19% with a $2.40 ROI. The remarkable thing about that mark is that not only did he have a large sample size (162 starters) but he was just 3-26 at Oaklawn in 2022-2023. He clearly targeted Oaklawn in a bigger way last year and delivered with strong results. As has always been the case with McPeek’s runners, the longer they go, the better. He was 18% with a $2.51 in routes, which obviously included a win in the Southwest from eventual Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan and a Fantasy score for presumptive Eclipse Award winner Thorpedo Anna.