ITM Plus - Miss Grillo Horse x Horse Analysis
By PTF - October 6th, 2024 BAQ Card
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The Miss Grillo is a key trial for the Juvenile Fillies Turf. This only makes sense as it takes place in Chad Brown’s backyard and he’s run the BCJT six times. He has won nine runnings of this event. Brown has three entries in this renewal but contentions runs deeper than just those entrants here. Let’s go through the field horse-by-horse to not only try and find the winner but also to look for some clues about the big race in four weeks’ time.
#1 DAISY FLYER won a slow maiden at Kentucky Downs with a perfect trip. There is plenty pace signed on here but I think there are better closers than her despite this cozy draw.
#2 SALT was a big longshot in the Catch a Glimpse and basically did no running. Given the torrential rains that day and the way that race was run, you don’t have to hold that against her too much. But the previous run, a narrow win against a field with four runbacks with none who’ve hit the board, doesn’t inspire confidence. Looks a longshot.
#3 VIRGIN COLADA won a productive maiden at Saratoga and made an excellent visual impression as well, finishing with alacrity. She was against the flow of the race trying to close into the slow pace of the P.G. Johnson in defeat next up. This race, with its big full field, should be run better to suit. I like that both her races are better than the bare running lines suggest. Looks an A-level contender to me.
#4 SHIFTY won the Catch a Glimpse Stakes at Woodbine over a wet course (guessing it was softer than good). She had the easiest trip imaginable, loose on the lead. The time figure was by far a field best – 85 on the Beyer scale – but I’m not sure how relevant it is to today’s race, which will be run under very different conditions. She’ll take money off of that number she ran but I am going to make her prove it to me.
#5 GRACE AND GRIT won a New York-bred maiden in near gate-to-wire fashion. Competition for the lead, and the win, will be a lot tougher here. She’s a pace factor but I don’t see her being able to hang on for the wire this time around.
#6 SHE’S GOT WILL had the lead in the stretch in a listed stake at KD and may have moved prematurely to get there. That was a good run given that she also had to rush up a bit early to gain position. I wish her final times were a little faster and that the form of the maiden win was better. Not out of it but more of a deep backup type for me.
#7 RARE ART has form that ties in closely with a couple of today’s rivals, having run third to Virgin Colada on debut, and just beating Good Conduct second-time out. She’s not that far behind the best of these but this is a tricky draw and others appeal more.
#8 SCYTHIAN ended up on many “watch” lists off her promising debut, showing an interesting combination of speed and stamina and looking like a runner who would benefit from the experience and for having more ground to work with. She won her maiden on turf second-up, beating males with a perfect trip of her own making. There is plenty of upside here and she should be a good price. Might end up being a value B (technically a B, but might use as an A in some pools for the price she offers relative to her chance.
#9 ANNIE GOODBODY won her maiden in a decent time with a perfect trip and setup at Saratoga against a field comprised of runners that cost less than $50,000. The water gets much deeper here and she didn’t finish up that well on the clock in terms of closing sectionals. I’m not sure she’ll class up with these.
#10 LAVENDER DISASTER is another new entrant since this race was rescheduled. Won her maiden just three weeks ago and did so with something in hand at long odds on, suggesting she was no secret. This is a big ask from a tricky draw and others appeal more, but it’s also not like she’d be some huge surprise coming the powerhouse stable Chad Brown stable.
#11 CORRETO, cross-entered at Keeneland, really impressed on the Kentucky Downs debut. He broke from a tricky post and lost a little ground on a day when ground loss mattered, still earning a strong figure. This is a massive step up and could be a case of too much, too soon, but you can certainly make a case. Trainer Graham Motion is excellent with these types. B.
#12 MARVELOUS MADISON likely has the early speed to lead as she’s stretching out from a 5.5-furlong sprint. She showed a good attitude on debut, taking a bump early and going through on the inside. That was against New York-breds and it’s open question if she wants to run this far. Third of the Chad Brown runners could be a de-facto rabbit for his other two.
VERDICT: My top selection and likely win bet is #3 VIRGIN COLADA, who should be able to get a great trip from the inside draw and may have the market made for her by a couple of today’s rivals.
#11 CORETTO and #8 SCYTHIAN are interesting “value” types who might make good each-way plays or USA exotics players.