ITM Plus - Euro Shipper Deep Dive

Steven Bonnick

Good Morning. We are excited about the exclusive content below from Steven Bonnick! We like the approach he’s taken and think you will too. His speed figure conversions won’t be found anywhere else and hopefully, they’ll provide an edge as you look to approach the next two days.

There will be a lot of stuff coming today for ITM Plus Subscribers. The highlights include the ITM Picks Grid (PTF, JK, Nick T, etc.), a wagering strategy guide (budgets of $250, $500, and $1,000), and a look at vulnerable favorites and viable longshots from Drew Coatney.

Plus, Nick Tammaro will have written analysis for his vertical (exacta and trifecta) wagering strategy and a trio of podcasts/videos that will cover the All Turf Pick 4 and likely the Early Pick 5 for both days.

And, you’ll want to tune in later today for a Breeders’ Cup Best Bets show that will feature Jerry Bailey, Steven Crist, and Randy Moss - That’ll drop on YouTube (Please Subscribe!)

It’s a lot and we are trying our best to get it to you ASAP! Thanks for your continued support.

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Notes: Ratings out of 5 are a reflection of the likelihood of that horse winning the race in my opinion, but should be related to the price. For example, 3.5/5 horse at 20/1 would be far more appealing to me than a 4/5 horse at 7/4.

BHA rating is the rating assigned by the British Horseracing Authority official handicapper Equivalent Beyer is the best speed-figure of the year converted to the Beyer scale, but does not include runs in France and Germany

Juvenile Turf Sprint

The Platinum Queen – 3.5/5 – Timeform Rating 111; BHA rating 111; Equivalent Beyer 92 - a very talented and fast filly, who won't mind what the ground is like. Beat elders last time out in the Prix de l'Abbaye and hard to argue against her having the best form in this field. The clear issue here is the draw, with a ton of pace inside her. Even with a solid run to the turn, she's going to have to be used up early to get her favoured prominent position. On the plus side, she is usually quickly into stride, but she isn't a horse I would be considering at 5/2 or so.

Dramatised – 3.5/5 - Timeform Rating 104; BHA rating 108; Equivalent Beyer 89 - looked a top- notch filly when storming clear in the Queen Mary – had Love Reigns and The Platinum Queen behind - having been a well-backed winner on her debut. Disappointed last time out in a Group 2 at York but was too keen in the lead and actually ran well for a very long way in that race, only fading out of things late on. This has been her target since and not hard to see her running a very big race from a good draw with Ryan Moore booked – expect her to be ridden with a bit more restraint this time.

Mischief Magic – 3.5/5 - Timeform Rating 107; BHA rating 108; Equivalent Beyer 89 - a progressive colt who won a Group 3 on synthetics impressively prior to a solid fourth in the Group 1 Middle Park last time. That form is pretty solid, even if you accept that run was the absolute peak of his ability, but he didn't seem to handle the track too well there, looking all at sea in the dip having travelled well. He will be better suited by this flat track and should get a nice toe into the race from stall 5. Solid shout.

Persian Force – 2.5/5 - Timeform Rating 108; BHA rating 113; Equivalent Beyer 83 - ahead of Mischief Magic in the Middle Park but unlike that rival he gave the impression that was as good as he was. Been on the go a long time now and, although some of his form is very good and gives him a solid chance, he perhaps lacks the scope of some of his rivals. Looks about the right price at 10/1.

Lady Hollywood – 2.5/5 - Timeform Rating 101; BHA rating 103; Equivalent Beyer NA - behind Dramatised two back – probably didn't stay - before winning a Group 3 at Longchamp last time out. She continues to improve and the time of her last run wasn't bad. Well drawn and could outrun big odds.

Juvenile Fillies Turf

Meditate – 3.5/5 - Timeform Rating 109; BHA rating 112- Equivalent Beyer 90 - a high class performer who has progressed with every run. Was favourite for the 1000 Guineas at one stage but her reputation has taken a couple of hits with back-to-back defeats at Group 1 level, although she has still run extremely well on both occasions. On pure form, she has a very solid chance. The concern for me would be that she was an early foal by a sire whose progeny are generally precocious, so it's possible her edge might decrease as the year goes on. With that said, the last run was a career-best on ratings, which does undermine that view somewhat. Untried over a mile and wouldn't be sure to stay, she is about the right price.

Midnight Mile – 3/5 – Timeform Rating 103; BHA rating 103; Equivalent Beyer 78 - a winner of both of her starts to date, she was impressive last time out when landing the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes, quickening up nicely from the rear. Trainer brings his horses along a bit slower these days and physically she seems the type to be well suited by US racing. Drawn wide and needs more here, but has scope to progress again.

Basil Martini – 1.5/5 – Timeform Rating 93; BHA rating 100; Equivalent Beyer 74 - broke her maiden at the fifth time of asking on most recent start, but that was in a Group 3. Form is fairly solid but has a lot to find with the principles on that run and has stall 14 to overcome.

Spirit Gal – 4/5 – Timeform Rating 101; BHA rating 103; Equivalent Beyer 84 - got off the mark at the third time of asking and improved again when stepped up to seven furlongs last time out, landing a Listed race in excellent fashion. Impressed with her strong-galloping nature there and turned away a very good colt who has since gone on to win a Group 3 himself. Looks to be improving rapidly, should relish the mile and is very attractively priced at 16/1 or so currently.

Manhattan Jungle – 1/5 – Timeform Rating 95; BHA rating NA; Equivalent Beyer NA- capable sprinting filly with some solid Stakes form, but looks overmatched here even if she improves for the distance, which doesn't seem too likely.