ITM Plus - Breeders' Cup Wagering Guide

Strategies for $250 - $500 - $1,000 Budgets

*Note - This is long but hopefully worth your time. I welcome your feedback in the comments. The picture from the graphic above is of the ill-fated, Battle of Midway - one of my favorite horses of the past decade and winner of the Dirt Mile last at Del Mar in 2017. It serves as a reminder of the fragility of these athletes, so assuming you have some success this week, do your part and donate to a reputable aftercare charity. Thanks - Tyler

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Ticket construction and overall wagering strategy are topics that clearly deserve more attention. However, the appropriate wagering strategy is largely dependent on one’s budget and goals. The number of iterations is limitless and as a result, it’s a topic that most pundits mostly ignore.

Most of the current talk (primarily on social media) on the subject comes as harsh criticism as opposed to constructive feedback. That is, the keyboard warriors assume they know what’s best for you despite having no knowledge of your bankroll and expectations. We’ll refer to them as the EV (expected value) Police. If they’re reading this, I expect to receive plenty of flack - I actually welcome it.

My plan here is to cover a few different budgets for the Breeders’ Cup cards. We will outline approaches for budgets of $250, $500, and $1,000.

In order to understand my wagering strategy, it’s necessary that I explain my handicapping opinions so you can see how I plan to leverage them at the windows. You may disagree with my handicapping but might be able to gain some insights as to how I think through my approach. Put differently, the idea here isn’t that you tail my suggestions, but that you take your opinions and hopefully, think about the best way to spend your budget.

Before I jump in, I want to provide a couple of generalities with regard to bankroll management.

Review your Records

Regular ITM listeners know the importance of keeping wagering records. Luckily, most ADWs do the work for you.

Spend some time digging in and identifying your strengths. Specifically, you’ll want to arm yourself with your ROI by wager type. Generally, this is readily available and allows you to identify areas of strength and weakness.

Simplify your Approach

Part of the allure of Breeders’ Cup weekend to most horseplayers is that most races feature bulky, competitive fields and larger-than-normal pools. As a result, the payoffs can be huge but do recognize the level of difficulty increases exponentially.

If you’re a horizontal player who likes to play the Pick 5, consider playing the Pick 4 instead. Likewise, if you typically only wager on the Pick 4, try focusing on the Pick 3.

By simplifying your normal approach, you might miss out on a larger score but given a limited bankroll, it’s more likely that you might be undercapitalized and whiff entirely if you stick with your standard approach. This a reminder that the takeout on losing wagers is 100%.

If you disagree with this suggestion, surely you can agree not to go the other way. That is, if you’re usually a Pick 4 player, don’t be tempted by the Pick 5 or 6.

And the Breeders’ Cup is certainly not a time to forget about the simplest weapon in the wagering arsenal - The win bet.

Maximize your Opinions

It’s hard for many horseplayers to pass races once you’ve handicapped them and formed an opinion. This is true on a Thursday, let alone two of the biggest days the sport has to offer.

But it’s unlikely that your opinion is equally strong in all of the races, and a disciplined approach can be the difference between a winning and losing weekend.

You don’t need to participate in every Pick 3 or Pick 4. Identify your strongest opinions and spend some time figuring out the best way to exploit that opinion in the pools.

To be clear, I’m not suggesting you limit your bankroll. Instead, I’m advocating that you leverage in accordance with the strength of your opinion.

Don’t be a Hero

This will seem somewhat contradictory to what I just suggested and it is, to a degree.

The Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup cards offer the most acceptable opportunities to spread.

Thus, a balanced approach using the last two concepts is generally my strategy for these big days.

My Handicapping Assessment

Again, in order for the wagering strategy to make sense, I need to explain where I stand from a handicapping standpoint.

Main Opinions:

Juvenile Fillies - This race is fairly wide open but the more I go back and watch the Alcibiades, the more I like Chop Chop. This filly should move forward for a barn that had tremendous success here in 2020. Additionally, Grand Love will be overlooked and likely represents tremendous value here.

Juvenile - Cave Rock looks like a standout on paper, but he’s no cinch. My thoughts on this race are that Verifying offers some vertical value and that National Treasure should not be taken lightly.

Juvenile Turf - Silver Knott figures to have plenty of backers and looks pretty good to me. The local horse, Andthewinneris looks more than okay. I’ll use them both with a few longshots vertically, namely - Gaslight Dancer. Remember, Maker stole this race in 2020 with a longshot.

Dirt Mile - I’ve narrowed this race to three runners on the win end; Cyberknife, Cody’s Wish or Laurel River. They all have questions with regard to the mile distance, at least around two turns. My main opinion in this race is that Simplification is a very strong exotics key.