ITM Plus Breeders Cup Recap/Results
November 9, 2024
Breeders’ Cup 2024 - ITM Plus Highlights
TLDR Highlights:
Rob Dove - On Fire with his Final Answers including 33/1 Starlust
More Than Looks at 20/1 ML on top for Nick and Drew
PTF kicks off BC card with $27 winner
Trip notes leading to prices in exotics including an undercard winner
HxH writeups had useful insight on the top finishers
Euro/Japanese figures from Dove/Henry held up well
Vertical Wagering Podcast was spot on in the Dirt Mile
Race by Race highlights as requested by newsletter subscribers:
Nick nailed his P.O.D on Breeder’s Cup Friday. Here is what he had to say about Twirling Queen in the second race on Friday.
Race 2 - #4 TWIRLING QUEEN – I don’t think we’re getting the morning line on this gal as she moves back to the turf following an ill-advised try on dirt last time out. She is clearly at her best on the grass and has the tactical speed to be a major factor from the start. Her best races put her in line with the favorites in here, even if those tries came against straight 3YOs. Let’s get this day started on the right note!
Winner in Race 4 Friday could be found in the Trip Notes
DMR Friday Race 4 (Finished 1st @ 6-1)
Chasing Liberty: Indian Summer S. (G1), 5 1/2f, Keeneland, 10/06, 4th.
Drawn 2/12. Brk slowly & was slow into stride, trailing in last, 11 3/4L at first POC, looking thoroughly outpaced; managed to find stride & was taken 2W round bend, suddenly making noticeable headway under minimal urging; nudged along rounding into stretch; angled 5W into centre of track where he changed leads well but was then bumped hard by inside rival ~3/16 pole, losing some momentum; recovered & came under firm L-hand ride 1/8 pole, finishing strongly into 4th with a standout closing sectional. Lost race with slow start.
Juvenile Turf Sprint:
Euro Fig Highlights:
Dove had both the 12/1 winner and 27/1 runner-up running to Beyers of ~85, which was much faster than any of the USA based runners. Also correctly identified that the winner’s “best chance will probably be to hold up and hope for a meltdown”.
HxH write-up highlights:
Bill Duncliffe gave a positive comment to and used Governor Sam in his top three verdict; the horse finished 3rd at 8/1.
Drew Coatney’s Article:
Consideration: #4 Magnum Force (15-1) Last out faded to run a decent third behind the top of the market. Two back ran a good race overcoming some adversity. There’s no reason this horse can’t step forward again and pop on the firm and fast turf in Del Mar.
Grid Picks:
PTF had Magnum Force on Top to start the BC Races $27
Juvenile Fillies:
HxH write-up highlights:
Jackson Muniz identified that Quickick was providing value at ML odds of 10/1, as one who could benefit from a heated pace scenario; the filly finished 3rd at 8/1.
Drew’s Article was spot on here:
Make of it what you will, but the final time Beyer for Scottish Lassie is 90 vs. the TFUS figure of 107. #3 Immersive is 80 and TFUS 107. I like the Immersive figure better: more adversity faced, repeated similar on 8/31.
Live Longshot: 5 Quickick (10-1) Presser/closer who has the better draw of my top two choices. Continues to get better and should be overlooked in the market. The pace should be hot, and Dylan Davis will be able to take advantage of the pace setup. Horse needs to run 5-10 Beyer points higher today, which isn’t impossible for a day like today. Workouts look strong.
Most Logical: #3 Immersive (3-1) Cox entrant has three races under her belt with 3 wins and two of those were tending hot paces. Manny should be able to break and let the mad dash for position unfold upfront then setup shop 2-3 wide staking the hot pace. Figures trending the right direction.
Vulnerable Favorite: #10 Scottish Lassie (5/2) Debut ran into pace pressure and wilted. Last out got a perfect setup and ran on well. Today is going to see so much pace, I have minimal confidence in that 90 figure will hold up with the pace in this race. I also hate trusting a last out top Beyer in a maiden win when things went the horses way.
Grid Picks:
Immersive and Quickick prominent on many handicappers sheets.
Juvenile Fillies Turf:
Euro Fig Highlights:
Dove highlighted that Lake Victoria had recently run an 89 Beyer which was the highest on offer in the race. Described her as an “obvious standout”.
The other speed figures for the Euros clearly showed that they had no real edge over the USA based runners and were well below Lake Victoria’s level. That was correct as they ran 4th, 10th & 11th.
HxH write-up highlights:
Our main man, PTF, described Lake Victoria as “the one to beat”.
Grid Picks:
6 of 7 had Lake Victoria with Mike, and the Eric’s having May Day Ready in the Mix.
Trip Note Highlight here:
DMR Friday Race 8 (finished 2nd @ 13-1)
May Day Ready: Jessamine G2 (1st) 10/4/24
the comment "bothered early" is a gross understatement; she was bumped out the the gate and then the horse directly to her outside veered in sharply and squeezed her between horses forcing her to shuffle right back to last losing all her position and 3-4L; approaching the first turn she was headstrong and throwing her head while under stout restraint; she finally got comfortable in her stride around the turn and down the backside while racing in 8th and 2W; she moved up between horses 2W approaching the far turn and raced there into the stretch; jock got a split outside the 3/16th pole, exchanged bumps with an inside challenger in the stretch, powered past that one, extended her stride to the wire and got her nose down in a three horse photo; WOW! This girl had a NO CHANCE trip and still won; AND she galloped out past everyone; HUGE effort here.
Juvenile:
HxH write-up highlights:
Eric Solomon highlighted that 6/1 runner-up Gaming, had “been training like a Baffert runner that will move forward” before adding “I like what I’m seeing going into this race. I think he could be one that sits in the middle of this pack and gets to take a run at the front-runners, who could be cooking early in this one”.
Eric also highlighted some key points about 61/1 third place finisher, Hill Road, discussing how he was bred to be a talented dirt horse and cost $350k; the fact that Rispoli had been booked for the ride; and Eric also discussed how the owner & trainer teamed up with two runners at the BC last year, indicating their intent/ambitions of winning at the meeting. Eric specifically said he’d be using Hill Road underneath in exotics.
Grid Picks:
The Trifecta found its way minimally into the picks with Mike having Citizen Bull in 3rd, Eric Decoster having Gaming on top and Eric Solomon with Hill Road in 3rd.
Juvenile Turf
Euro Fig Highlights:
Dove specifically said about 7/2 winner, Henri Matisse “he’s got the ability” having previously mentioned that he’d run a 91 Beyer in his third career start, which competitive with the 93 Beyer produced last time by ML favorite, New Century.
Rob Dove in his Final Answers article: I’m going to take on the runners from the Summer Stakes. I’m not sure the race was that strong that they took a big step forward & the stable jockey has overlooked Al Qudra. The horse I think maybe overlooked by the market is Henri Matisse especially with the wide draw, he does have the best form in the race & the wide draw maybe an advantage for him to get a clear run held up off a strong pace.
HxH write-up highlights:
WH spoke highly of 9/1 3rd place finisher, Aomori City, highlighting how his prior race warranted a form upgrade and that he had a running style that would work well around Del Mar, especially as he was stretching out to one mile for the first time.
Also, significant concern was raised about the horse who ended up getting bet into 4/1 second favorite, Zulu Kingdom; the colt finished 7th.
Grid Picks:
Nick Tammaro takes the prize here having winner (13) Henri Matisse as a top pick and his price play. ($9.80) PTF and Eric D also had that one in the mix.
F&M Sprint
HxH write-up highlights:
Michael Domabyl identified the correct pace scenario: Society leading with Pleasant pressing.
Tough one for the Grid Picks here with the winner not found. Society was prominent on 5 of the 7 sheets.
Turf Sprint
Euro Fig Highlights:
Dove identified that 33/1 winner Starlust, would be coming from mid-pack and was capable of running a 100 Beyer. A case could have been made for him using that info.
Rob Dove in his Final Answers: Also, I can’t resist Starlust. He was going to go close in the Abbaye before being stopped & was only a length behind Bradsell the run before & there will probably be a huge price here. It's probably not a bad play to have those three behind Cogburn in exacta/forecasts.
HxH write-up highlights:
Eric DeCoster spoke favorably of the winner, highlighting how he was only 1 ¼ lengths behind Big Evs in 3rd in last year’s BC Juvenile Turf Sprint. He identified how the USA experience could give him an edge over the other shippers and that he was much better than his most recent result, owing to a bad trip.
Eric mentioned how 12/1 runner-up, Motorious, was back on the improve and gave him a mention in his final verdict as one who could hit the board as a closer.
Eric also said about 9/1 third place finisher, Ag Bullet, “if she can translate that speed (shown in longer races) over this distance, she can play”.
Distaff
HxH write-up highlights:
Jessica Paquette spoke favorably of Thorpedo Anna, saying how she had “blossomed even further this fall and was strictly the one to beat”.
Also spoke highly of 4/1 runner-up, Raging Sea, identifying how she was “getting better as she gets older” and was “the biggest threat to Thorpedo Anna”.
Chalky result here with the Favorite over the 2nd choice.
Turf
Euro Fig Highlights:
Dove highlighted how 9/5 winner, Rebel’s Romance, was consistently running 100+ Beyers and said that he expected “he can run another high 100 Beyer here as he did when winning & that may well be enough”. Dove also discussed how RR’s last two efforts were better than the bare result/margin of victory would suggest.
Here’s Rob’s Final Answer thoughts: Rebel’s Romance is the most consistent and best performer in this race. The wide draw is a slight worry, but hopefully, it helps us get a little bigger price. It feels like another race that could go badly wrong for Emily Upjohn, and I’m not sure Jayrebe has the class. Wingspan might get overlooked and be overpriced. She has a nice upward profile, and I will keep her on my side.
Japanese Figure Highlights:
Alex Henry had favorable comments on the 2nd/3rd place finishers in her column
1. Rousham Park | 5H | Harbinger* GB x Reinette Groove* JPN by King Kamehameha* JPN
Most Recent 3 Beyer Equivalent Speed Figures: 92 – 97 – 100
Morning Line: 20/1
Northern Farm and Sunday Racing teamed up again to campaign this top-level horse, albeit with plenty of patience. Rousham Park found his best form in 2023, winning 4 of 6 starts, including the G3 Hakodate Kinen and G2 Sankei Sho. This year, his best finish was 2nd in the G1 Osaka Hai over 10f just missing to Bellagio Opera. His trainer and jockey in his previous 3 starts, Kei Tosaki, both agree that he tends to lose momentum late in his races. Perhaps the Del Mar turf will be to his liking to spring an upset, as his past speed figures position him worthy of a good run here.
3. Shahryar | 6H | Deep Impact* JPN x Dubai Majesty by Essence of Dubai
Most Recent 3 Beyer Equivalent Speed Figures: 92 – *101 (from Timeform) – 106
Morning Line: 10/1
World traveler sired by my personal favorite stallion in recent memory has won over $10,000,000 in just four wins. He ran well in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf to finish a troubled 3rd after encountering traffic; however, he continues to show up on the international stage, finishing 2nd in the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan in March. He seems to pull out his best performances abroad as of late, but he’s hit the trifecta in 6 of 8 starts at 12f on turf so far in his career. His form this year puts him in contention with the US entrants, however, the European team (notably Rebel’s Romance who won the Dubai Sheema Classic) will certainly give Shahryar all he can handle.
HxH write-up highlights:
Andrew Harman discussed how Rebels Romance’s last two efforts were better than the bare result/margin of victory would suggest.
A positive word was spoken about 22/1 runner-up, Rousham Park; Andrew mentioned that his best form puts him “right in the mix”, correctly identified that he’d be “off the pace and have a strong finishing kick” and Andrew also made him a “lively outsider”.
8/1 third place finisher Shahryar was highlighted in Andrew’s final verdict as one to use underneath, after Andrew said, “he ran much better in his prep race this time than last year and looked all set to run his usual solid race in optimal conditions from a handy draw”.
Grid Picks:
Rebel’s Romance was listed on everyone’s sheet with JK and Mike using on top.
Classic
Euro Fig Highlights:
Dove’s Beyers for City of Troy (108, 95, 105) could easily have put people off, in the presumption that he’d have needed a career best to win. Dove then discussed his overall chance: “He has a long stride measured at 27 feet at York with a low cadence of about 2.2; it will probably be very important for him to break well and not get stuck behind horses, but with his lack of experience and inside post, that would be a big worry for me. I’m not sure he will end Aidan’s drought in the race”.
HxH write-up highlights:
Nick Tammaro said about 6/1 winner, Sierra Leone: “One thing you know you’re getting here is a decent pace, and with a better price than you’ve gotten in recent starts, he becomes awfully enticing”.
Nick also spoke favorably of (and made his top choice) 4/1 third place finisher, Forever Young, having discussed how he showed far better gate speed in Japan last out, how he had “been campaigned conservatively with this race in mind”, and that “he has run well in every start”.
Drew’s Article had some solid analysis
Next best: #9 Fierceness (3-1) Hate the price but this horse should get a similar trip to next, press the pace and go on with it. Best overall figures and I have a trip note to upgrade that last perfect big tie.
Consideration: #11 Sierra Leone (12-1) This is a stretch of a pick, but will be closing late and maybe, just maybe, Chad has go this one figured out.
Grid Picks:
PTF nailed the 3 yo trifecta if you boxed his picks. Sierra Leone/Fierceness were on JKs, Nicks, and Drew’s sheet. Eric D. grabbed a 6/1 winner here.
F&M Turf
HxH write-up highlights:
Steve Bonnick spoke highly of 5/1 winner, Moira, and included her in his final verdict section, suggesting she would run well. He talked out how she had galloped out strongly in her last start, which “slightly assuages some stamina doubts based on her third in the F&M Turf last year, where she looked like she was wilting a little late. She ran a 128 Timeform US figure there, which would likely be good enough here, and may now be at her peak aged 5”.
Grid Picks:
Moira was nailed on top by Nick and Eric S. Cinderella’s Dream found her way on many sheets.
Sprint
HxH write-up highlights:
Dean Keppler spoke highly of 6/1 winner, Straight No Chaser, saying how he is super quick out of the gate and how he’d produced “an excellent prep for this” when winning last out. He also mentioned how he had “proven he can fire over multiple surfaces and venues with sharp victories at Oaklawn Park, Pimlico, and the aforementioned Santa Anita Park. He sports the field’s fastest-registered Beyer with a (107) in the Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Stakes and is dangerous with an alert break”. Dean selected him 3rd in his overall verdict.
Dean suggested using 28/1 runner-up, Bentornato, underneath in vertical wagers and picked him fourth overall. He mentioned how he was “the gem of consistency” and had run a career-best Beyer last out. He then added: “A perfect 3 for 3 going today’s six-furlong trip, he makes the third start of the form cycle today. He is not without a longshot punter’s chance with another forward move”.
Dean made 3/1 third place finisher Mullikin his top pick and also spoke highly of his chances, highlighting his recent Beyers, how well he’d been training, and the fact that Prat took the ride.
Mile
Euro Fig Highlights:
Dove went beyond the bare figures provided for both Notable Speech and Porta Fortuna and raised concerns about their chances; Notable Speech finished 3rd as the 2/1 favorite while Porta Fortuna finished 8th at odds of 9/2.
His Final Answers comment on the winner More Than Looks also looks worth a play at big odds on the same form lines and may get a better trip.
HxH write-up highlights:
Barry Faulkner picked 6/1 winner, More Than Looks, third in his final verdict and suggested that he was a “live contender” having discussed his prior races and identified their fact that he’d be suited by a strong pace.
He also spoke positively about Notable Speech.
Trip Notes were useful here:
More Than Looks: Turf Mile G1 (1st) 10/5/24
slow from the gate and bumped which cost him 2L; settled 2W then was carried out to the 5 path at the beginning of the turn; tough start to this race for him; content to be last down the backside and when they approached the far turn this guy wanted to run but was still being held up; found a seam while 2W into the stretch; encountered some traffic, altered course to the outside, and showed a wicked turn of foot unleashing a furious run to come up just short; better-than-looked and this guy should have won.
Grid Picks:
Nick Tammaro and Drew Coatney had More Than Looks on top.
Drew’s comment from his article Live Longshot: #8 More than Looks (20-1) Was only 80% cranked in the debut at the Four Star Dave. Caught a slow pace that day. Last out caught another very slow pace. Still running huge numbers. Love this one in the mix. This is a four year old with only three starts this year.
Dirt Mile
HxH write-up highlights:
Edison Hatter picked 13/1 winner Full Serrano in second, having discussed his overall prior form. He gave him a very positive mention and said about him in his ‘Final Thoughts’ section that he “shouldn’t be ignored at a price and can potentially be in the mix late”.
Edison also correctly picked Domestic Product to finish in third, having discussed how he was live in the race and a “worthy morning-line favorite” before adding that “this big 14-horse field where anything can happen isn’t the time to take too short of a price on anyone”.
Grid Picks:
Full credit to Eric Solomon with his Price Pick of Full Serrano on top at 13/1. Also had the 100-1 exacta with Post Time right on the sheet. Lots of love from the panel on the runner up and 3rd place finisher.
Honorable Mention to Don Tiger on the Vertical Wagering Podcast. He was quite high on the winner and runner up here looking to build tickets around them in this wide open dirt mile.