ITM Plus - Belmont Stakes Horse by Horse and 2-Day Pick 4!
ITM Plus - Belmont Stakes Horse by Horse and 2-Day Pick 4!
For the Preakness Stakes, we provided a horse-by-horse analysis that proved very popular. Our own PTF and Kevin Kilroy are back to take a trip through this year’s Belmont field, horse-by-horse.
Then, Drew Coatney takes a look at the 2-Day $2 Minimum Pick 4
PTF: #1 WE THE PEOPLE looks to be a textbook example of a lone speed horse. This is a time honored path going from the Peter Pan to the Belmont and the Beyer figure might be a little for him. I liked him a little better before the weather forecast cleared up but he’s very live.
KK: Don’t be spooked by the big jump in his Peter Pan speed figure—this highly regarded Constitution colt (Tiz the Law, American Revolution) had progressed but had excuses in the Arkansas Derby. Pros: his front-running style, speed figures, talent, jockey, success over the course. Cons: price, potential to be anxious and off his game as he was in the Arkansas Derby. Watch him in the paddock—if everything looks good, he is a cinch to run in the top 3.
We the People, trainer Rudolph Brisset
“He doesn't have to go to the front. Flavien (Prat) knows what to do. Based on the way he galloped out last time and based on what Flavien said to me after the race, we are hoping he will be okay at 1 1/2 mile.”
PTF: #2 SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING is likely going to be a lot closer to the early pace here and could be a factor in that regard. I don’t think he’s fast enough and I’m also not sure today’s added ground will be his friend.
KK: His early pace figures make him interesting in a race with few front-running threats. His Beyers have progressed but he has not been competing for the win recently—just happy to stay within the pack. Maybe being more involved early on will wake him up to want to separate late. File Skippy and Golden Glider under Superfecta Juice.
Skippylongstalking, trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.
"He's going to need to improve again or he'll need some of the others to regress a bit for him to be competitive, but we're hoping he'll go over there and run the race of his life.”
PTF: #3 NEST is super interesting. In theory, she’s not fast enough. But the added ground, which she and her stablemate are both well bred for, could be an equalizer. I also haven’t heard enough about the rough trip she had last time, forced to idle buried down inside while the winner put the race to bed. If the public money comes for the filly vs. the boys angle, I can see getting off of her, but if the morning line is right and she’s 8-1 I like her.
KK: The pace setup and the distance are two huge positives for Nest. Speed figure-wise she would need to take a huge step up to win, but they will likely bet her based off connections and the filly-versus-fellas narrative alone. I feel fading her is warranted and will likely earn us the equity we need to warrant taking a swing in this race.
Nest, trainer Todd Pletcher
“She has the pedigree to suggest she’ll stay the mile and one half. I think she’s got the right running style. She’ll relax early on so that’s a big key.”
PTF: #4 RICH STRIKE is your Derby winner, and they can’t take that away from him. Can’t shake the idea that backing him here is like finding a wallet on the sidewalk on Saturday morning and then going back and expecting to find another one Sunday. If he wins, I lose.
KK: The Derby winner looked amazing training up to that race, and all reports verify he has that same energy: bouncing out of his skin yet focused, flying across the track. Two huge considerations: his closing running style with little pace to bite into, and jockey Sonny Leon has never wrestled with the Big Sandy.
Rich Strike, trainer Eric Reed
“I think he’ll be a lot closer to the pace than anyone imagines. He’s gotten smarter and more aggressive. The pace won’t be near what he’s used to running in any of his other races. I could be wrong because he’ll do whatever he wants, but something tells me he’s going to be more aggressive on his own for this race. I think he’s changed for the better. I think in the middle of the turn, if he’s within four or five lengths, they’ll have to deal with him.”
PTF: #5 CREATIVE MINISTER is sharp, fast and interesting. Has an OK pedigree for this, and I like the thought that he’s the poster child for “See, modern trainers, you CAN run well in three races in five weeks.” I’m of the mind that the Preakness pace was slower than Timeform has it, which makes me think he might be farther back and/or used to hard early so I don’t love him, but he’s an include.
KK: This fella can handle the distance, has the early pace to be involved near the front, the speed figures that fit against these, and will be piloted by one of the most underrated jockeys in the States, Brian Hernandez Jr. The only entrant who will be running 3 races in 5 weeks gives me pause, but the fact that he is lightly raced coming in and the reports of high energy squash any doubts this conjures.
Creative Minister, trainer Kenny McPeek
“It was another big step forward for him,” McPeek said of the Preakness effort. “He showed he fits in with some of the better 3-year-olds in the nation. He’s progressed really really well. He’s bitten everybody who has handled him all week. You like to see that aggressiveness.”
PTF: #6 MO DONEGAL shows the best bit of form with his against-the-flow win in the Wood Memorial, a race I like more than most. His trip in the Derby stunk upon reflection, going from too far inside on a not great rail to WAY too far outside. Draw a line through it. He’s showed a little more early speed energy in his works and I think he can get a fantastic trip grinding from a few lengths off the pace, perfect for the test. Using everywhere.
KK: This closer had a couple excuses in the Derby, and there is the potential for him to be sitting on a huge race hidden by that tough Run for the Roses. He’ll need to be more involved, and he has the trainer who understands that and knows how to win this race. I think he will be used heavily by many bettors in the horizontals and bet down to an underlay in the win pool, so I will only be using him underneath.
Mo Donegal, trainer Todd Pletcher
“He’s a horse that from the very beginning has shown us he wants to run longer. I thought he ran a very credible race in the Derby. He was still closing in the end. Unfortunately he didn’t break well. What I liked is he kept running to the wire. Ithink he can run [closer to the pace], and I think he will need to be [be closer].”
PTF: #7 GOLDEN GLIDER is a no hoper. Couldn’t get within 10 lengths of the We the People, and but for the pace scenario, I’ be trying to beat him. Toss.
KK: There’s only one angle I can see that makes him interesting. His last three starts have come on off tracks, and possibly a return to a fast track could propel him a step further. But the chances of that will likely be lower than his price will warrant playing. Still, legendary superfectas are built with bombs.
Golden Glider, trainer Mark Casse
“I'm not worried about the mile and a half, it's just how long it's going to take him,” said Casse, with a laugh. “He's a one-paced type of horse, so I’m hoping he'll have a similar trip like Sir Winston. In his previous races, Sir Winston used to come from the clouds but in the Belmont, Joel Rosario kept him close enough and I could see the same thing happening Saturday with Dylan [Davis].”
PTF: #8 BARBER ROAD might be responsible for the funniest moment in the eight-year history of the shows when I played “Devil’s Advocate” and made the case for the horse: he’s improving, he’s a fighter, he could be suited by the trip. Steve Crist told me, “The Devil called. He wants a new advocate.” LOL. Seriously, I am a fan of this horse but even in my optimistic view, he’s my fifth choice. Consider for underneath in supers.
KK: In the two races prior to the Derby, he had some trouble in the stretch makes you wonder if he has found his own trouble and will again in the Belmont. However, trainer John Ortiz takes the blinkers off, so there is a strong chance this fella could find the right spots that eluded him in the past. Would take both a big step up and a masterful trip to win—but if just one of those, he is in the money.
Barber Road, trainer John Ortiz
“I’ve seen a big maturity boost in him leaving the Kentucky Derby. He finally got that stretch run with no interference and even though he went wide, I was happy to see him able to run in the clear. You could see how hard he was closing. He moved at the same time as Rich Strike—he went to the inside and we went outside, but we were only four lengths short. That gave our horse the strength and fitness we were looking for. He looks more athletic after the Kentucky Derby.”
VERDICT:
PTF: For me, the play is to bust Rich Strike out of the exacta and maybe even the tri. I was initially thinking of keying #1 We the People, but the more I look, I might do a four horse dutch if the return is OK: 1-3-5-6. Depending on where the value is between those runners, I may do some topping up or keying. Godspeed everyone.
KK: I’ll take the trio of rock n’ roll chords on top in my horizontals: 1,4,5. I will be watching the pools to cook up a vertical following this map: 1st/2nd/3rd: We the People, Rich Strike, Creative Minister. 2nd/3rd/4th: Rich Strike, Mo Donegal, Barber Road
2-Day $2 Pick 4 Analysis and Wagering Strategy - Drew Coatney
*Event Code on ADW - BQP