ITM Plus - BC Wagering Strategy
$250 - $500 - $1,000 Budget Strategies
*Note - This is long but hopefully worth your time. I welcome your feedback in the comments. The picture from the graphic above is of the ill-fated, Battle of Midway - one of my favorite horses of the past decade and winner of the Dirt Mile last time BC was at Del Mar. It serves as a reminder of the fragility of these athletes, so assuming you have some success this week, do your part and donate to a reputable aftercare charity. Thanks - Tyler
Before I jump in, I want to point out that Domestic Spending was one of my strongest opinions of the weekend. And I was planning to backup with United (among others). So the events from this morning have resulted in a lot of rework.
Some of the text below is from the Kentucky Derby Wagering Strategy Guide - It’s worth repeating.
Ticket construction and overall wagering strategy are topics that clearly deserve more attention. However, the appropriate wagering strategy is largely dependent on one’s budget and goals. The number of iterations is limitless and as a result, it’s a topic that most pundits mostly ignore.
Most of the current talk (primarily on social media) on the subject comes as harsh criticism as opposed to constructive feedback. That is, the keyboard warriors assume they know what’s best for you despite having no knowledge of your bankroll and expectations. We’ll refer to them as the EV (expected value) Police. If they’re reading this, I expect to receive plenty of flack - I actually welcome it.
My plan here is to cover a few different budgets for the Breeders’ Cup cards. We will outline approaches for budgets of $250, $500, and $1,000.
In order to understand my wagering strategy, it’s necessary that I explain my handicapping opinions so you can see how I plan to leverage them at the windows. You may disagree with my handicapping but might be able to gain some insights as to how I think through my approach. Put differently, the idea here isn’t that you tail my suggestions, but that you take your opinions and hopefully, think about the best way to spend your budget.
Before I jump in, I want to provide a couple of generalities with regard to bankroll management.
Review your Records
Regular ITM listeners know the importance of keeping wagering records. Luckily, most ADWs do the work for you.
Spend some time digging in and identifying your strengths. Specifically, you’ll want to arm yourself with your ROI by wager type. Generally, this is readily available and allows you to identify areas of strength and weakness.
Simplify your Approach
Part of the allure of Breeders’ Cup weekend to most horseplayers is that most races feature bulky, competitive fields and larger than normal pools. As a result, the payoffs can be huge but do recognize the level of difficulty increases exponentially.
If you’re a horizontal player who likes to play the Pick 5, consider playing the Pick 4 instead. Likewise, if you typically only wager on the Pick 4, try focusing on the Pick 3.
By simplifying your normal approach, you might miss out on a larger score but given a limited bankroll, it’s more likely that you might be undercapitalized and whiff entirely if you stick with your standard approach. A reminder that the takeout on losing wagers is 100%.
If you disagree with this suggestion, surely you can agree not to go the other way. That is, if you’re usually a Pick 4 player, don’t be tempted by the Pick 5 or 6.
And the Breeders’ Cup is certainly not a time to forget about the simplest weapon in the wagering arsenal - The win bet.