ITM Plus - BC Saturday Pick 4 Matrix

Frank Scatoni

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Breeders’ Cup Saturday Late P4 Matrix

By Frank R. Scatoni

(follow on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot and also visit @OptixEQ)

11/6/2021

NOTE: Because this analysis is posted in advance, always check my Twitter feed @ScatoniSureShot for real-time updates based on scratches and track conditions—as this analysis is written for surfaces that are fast and firm. Thanks!

INTRO

What a Late Pick 4 to sink our teeth into today—ridiculously competitive races with big, full fields—and a star-studded sequence that ends in the Classic (G1). As is the case with yesterday, I’m not here to tout a bunch of favorites to you: I’m looking for combinations that are going to connect for a big score, so if we can be right about a couple of our prices, we should be in pretty good shape. So, without further ado…let’s see if we can make some noise here!

LEG 1 (DMR R9):

We start today’s Breeders’ Cup Late P4 with the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1), an 8-furlong turf affair with the rails at zero-feet. We’ve got a fine mix of international runners with both genders represented—and we’ve also got an oversubscribed field with some Also Eligibles. Can the Europeans prove best or will an American take top honors today?

#1 MASTER OF THE SEAS (IRE) (12/1) is a 3-year-old colt who will need to step forward today, but I do think that’s eminently possible since he’s making the third start of his form cycle. I can also make excuses for his last two races, while his race three back, when he lost by a nose in the Group 1 Guineas at Newmarket, is good enough to win this. Last time, he steadied at the start and was racing on off-going, while two back, he was likely a short horse. Throw in the rail draw, and you’re looking at a runner who should improve leaps and bounds if he can find a seam late. GRADE: A.

#2 SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT (10/1) is a very nice animal, but Mo Forza has been his nemesis, so he’ll need to finally outkick that foe while also fending off some other terrific milers. On the plus side, he’s very tactical, so he can sit a good trip just stalking the pace, since I’m sure Blowout (GB) will be leading the way. He’s done good work over this course and at this distance, but he will need to show a bit more oomph in a race such as this. GRADE: C.