ITM Plus - BC Friday Pick 4 Matrix

Frank Scatoni

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We are excited to add Frank R. Scatoni to the ITM Content Team for the Breeders’ Cup. Anyone that regularly plays southern California tracks will know Frank - the consummate professional. We’ll be back with his Saturday Matrix tomorrow. Enjoy!

***BOLD = A’s

Breeders’ Cup Friday LATE PICK 4 MATRIX

(follow on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot and also visit @OptixEQ)

11/5/2021

NOTE: Because this analysis is posted in advance, always check my Twitter feed @ScatoniSureShot for real-time updates based on scratches and track conditions—as this analysis is written for surfaces that are fast and firm. Thanks!

INTRO

It’s “Future Stars Friday” to kick off Breeders’ Cup weekend, so that means a cornucopia of juvenile races to sink our teeth into. We’ve got lots or really good up-and-coming horses to look forward to, so not only will we get to experience these prospects at an early stage of their development, but we’ll also get to see them progress heading into next year. Might the 2022 Derby (G1) winner be seen today? Let’s find out…

LEG 1 (DMR R7):

We start today’s Breeders’ Cup Late P4 with the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) contested at 8.5-furlongs on the main track. We’ve only got six horses and a big morning-line favorite, but if we could beat that favorite, this whole sequence will open up nicely, even with the small field. You don’t have to be a hero if you don’t want to, but I’m looking to be a wise-guy in order to hit a big score.

#1 DESERT DAWN (20/1) is a bit of a grinder who would benefit from a pace collapse, and that’s not impossible given how much speed is signed on in here. She’s definitely not as fast or as flashy as some of the others, but pace makes the race, and if this gal just keeps ticking off consistent fractions, it will look like she’s flying late as the others start to really slow down. That said, she needs a big step forward. GRADE: C.

#2 HIDDEN CONNECTION (5/2) gets top honors from me, since she has good early speed, but she doesn’t need the lead, so I can see Gutierrez just sucking back a little and sitting off the two outside horses who should go hard from the gate—and then we’ll see if she can pour it on like she did in her first two races, which she won in dominating fashion. GRADE: A.