ITM PLUS: 2025 Kentucky Derby Pace Analysis

from ThoroPACE

Tyler is here with a look at the 2025 Kentucky Derby Prep races and how the pace of those races will impact this edition of the Run for the Roses.

PTF and JK will cover the expected pace scenario once the draw is complete. If you don’t want to miss it, make sure you’re subscribed to the ITM YouTube Channel

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Before we look ahead to the 2025 Kentucky Derby, let’s take a look back.

First, here is a quick reminder about our pace scale. ThoroPACE Pace Forecasts range from -35 (favors speed runners) to +35 (favors stretch runners).

With that in mind, the table below lays out the ThoroPACE Pace Figure assigned to each of the 2024 Kentucky Derby Prep Races.

When reviewing the Kentucky Derby Prep races, I first look for extremes—those races assigned a ThoroPACE Pace Figure color-coded in dark red or blue.

But that’s not the entire story, as we’ll discuss.