ITM Players' Newsletter - Travers Preview!
Plus FREE Contest Jockey Contest with HUGE Prizes!
Friday, for the rescheduled King’s Plate, we have the biggest Contest Jockey event to date.
One player will win a $1,000 entry to the Woodbine Mile contest outright and two others will qualify for a future “Final Table” contest broadcast where a second seat will be awarded. The other Final Table seats will be awarded on contests with Woodbine races this Saturday and next Friday and Saturday. Sign up to play for FREE today over at contestjockey.com.
(Unfortunately, Canadian residents are not eligible to win the prizes.)
Players’ Podcast - Alabama Recap, Travers Look Ahead and More
PTF and JK kick things off recapping a busy weekend with lots of action amongst three-year-old fillies, with Power Squeeze winning the Alabama, Iscreamuscream winning the Del Mar Oaks, and Grayosh winning the Lake Placid.
They also look ahead to the Travers, but you’ll have to go to the YouTube channel (while you’re there — SUBSCRIBE!) for their picks.
Then Kim Weir is here to give us an update on Therapeutic Horses of Saratoga fundraising for the summer and to tall us all about next Monday’s Pickle for the Ponies.
Players’ Podcast - King’s Plate Day + Saratoga
With the King’s Plate moved to Friday and the stakes races remaining as is, listen back to Jackson Muniz and PTF’s discussion of some of the stakes from last week’s Players’ Podcast.
Welcome to our comprehensive preview of the 2024 DraftKings Travers Stakes (G1), featuring an exciting field of 3-year-old stars battling for a share of the $1.25 million purse at Saratoga Race Course. The prestigious "Mid-Summer Derby" will see the top horses of the season, including Kentucky Oaks winner Thorpedo Anna taking on the boys, and Dornoch, the Belmont and Haskell Stakes champion, headlining the field. This preview is packed with facts, post positions, jockeys, trainers, and insights into the betting angles. While the video provides expert analysis, the opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those in the referenced articles. Let’s dive into this thrilling showdown!
The summer rolls along with Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Notebook and Frank Scatoni’s “Frankly Speaking” Del Mar Diary! Subscribe to ITM Plus for exclusive picks, written analysis, and shows from your favorite ITM contributors.
Weekend Eye Catchers - August 16-18, 2024
By Will Humphrey ©
I hope that you all had an enjoyable and successful weekend of wagering. With a view to the future, here are a few horses that you can take away from the weekend and use in your upcoming wagers.
Friday, Saratoga, Race 10: MIXOLOGIST (1st)
Ten runners lined up for a 1 1/16-mile OC 80k/N1X allowance on good turf at the Spa on Friday, where the disqualification of VINO ROUGE resulted in Brad Cox’s MIXOLOGIST earning her second career victory. Although she didn’t actually cross the wire in front, this was a step back in the right direction from MIXOLOGIST, and I think that she has the potential to develop into a very talented turf router.
Prior to making her third career start on Friday, the daughter of FROSTED had broken her maiden on debut at Churchill Downs, before disappointing in her second start. However, legitimate excuses can be made for that effort, as she pulled hard while racing wide and then made an early move into a pace that ultimately fell apart late on. Geroux handled her tenderly in the stretch as well that day, exasperating the distance that she was beaten.
This was much more like it on Friday as she earned her second career success and ran a career best Beyer of 84. However, the performance and speed figure still don’t truly reflect how much ability she possesses, and I think that she can continue to take large steps forward.
Once again, MIXOLOGIST was drawn outside in gate ten and got stuck wide around the first bend under Joel Rosario, who was then faced with traffic trouble turning for home and forced to angle MIXOLOGIST extremely wide into the lane. Slowish fractions of 25.11 and 49.85 didn’t provide a strong pace for her to close into, which made her task all the more difficult, and then in the stretch, she consistently hindered her own forward momentum by changing her leads numerous times on the soft turf and became unbalanced when shying away from the crop somewhat.
Nevertheless, MIXOLOGIST traveled through the race like a classy individual and managed to overcome all of the above with a game attitude to beat a talented group of more experienced rivals. She took her career record to two for three and if her pedigree is anything to go by, she could be better than just an allowance horse.
A $175,000 yearling purchase owned by LNJ Foxwoods, MIXOLOGIST is by three-time G1 winner FROSTED, out of six-time winner and stakes placed mare MASQUERADE, making her a half sister to five-time GSW and G1 runner up PRINCESS GRACE, as well as G3 winner and G1 runner-up CATNIP.
It’s worth highlighting that PRINCESS GRACE and CATNIP, both started their career’s aged three (just like MIXOLOGIST) and had recorded top Beyer speed figures of 88 and 81 respectively after only three starts, prior to developing into GS winning turf routers. The family tends to develop with age, offering hope that, after having recorded a Beyer of 84 on Friday, MIXOLOGIST can herself continue to improve with age and experience to become a very classy turf router as well.
Friday’s race didn’t exactly go to plan for MIXOLOGIST, but she got the job done regardless (kinda!). She will now have to raise her game again when she steps up in class, but with this further experience underneath her belt and hopefully a cleaner trip on a firmer surface next time, she has the potential to make the required jump. Where she goes next will be interesting, but regardless of whether it is another allowance race or a stake, this well-bred filly remains unexposed, full of potential, and shouldn’t be underestimated.
Saturday, Saratoga, Race 10: MISS JUSTIFY (4th)
The absence of THORPEDO ANNA allowed POWER SQUEEZE and CANDIED to produce a thrilling finish to the $600,000 Alabama Stakes (G1) at Saratoga on Saturday. Going forward though, I think that the fourth-place finisher, MISS JUSTIFY, could be the horse to take out of the race.
Having previously shown her tactical speed and versatility, Flavian Prat was content to settle MISS JUSTIFY in second place down the back stretch, 1 1/2 lengths behind CHATALAS, who was setting legit fractions of 23.31 and 47.06 for the 1 1/4-mile distance. As the field sliced through 3/4 miles in 1:11.92, CHATALAS started to feel the effects of the strong early pace and the back markers started to come under pressure, yet Prat remained still on MISS JUSTIFY, who had traveled powerfully throughout and drawn upsides the leader, looking as if she could potentially go onto win. However, off the home bend, CHATALAS became leg weary and drifted out off of the rail, squeezing MISS JUSTIFY into a tight sandwich with CANDIED, knocking her off stride and hindering her momentum. A lot of horses would have called it a day after that, but not MISS JUSTIFY. She stuck her ears back and battled on determinedly to remain neck-and-neck with CANDIED all the way up until the 1/8th pole. Somewhat unsurprisingly, MISS JUSTIFY did then tire inside the final furlong and eventually dropped back to finish 9 1/2 lengths behind POWER SQUEEZE in 4th with a mediocre Beyer of 76, however, that doesn’t reflect how well she actually ran, for multiple reasons.
First of all, we have to remember that this was her time testing graded stake waters, her first time truly running around two turns, and first start beyond one mile. Her prior races over one mile had come around only one turn at Churchill Downs and 1 1/2 turns out of Saratoga’s Wilson Shute, so her competition had something of an edge on her in that regard.
Secondly, you should look at where the first three finishers were positioned after the first 1/2 mile - 7th, 6th & 8th, respectively. MISS JUSTIFY was sitting in second place behind blistering fractions for the distance which ultimately led to a pace collapse and the race finishing with a tediously slow final furlong time of 26.71 seconds. Therefore, it was remarkable that MISS JUSTIFY was able to travel so strongly in second throughout, and even after being bumped, was still vying for the lead at the 1/8th pole.
Thirdly, she is by no means meant to stay this far. By JUSTIFY, (whose progeny’s average winning distance is 7.4f), MISS JUSTIFY is out of a MAJESTICPERFECTION mare who was bred top and bottom for sprinting and only ever hit the board in races over 6 1/2f or shorter. Furthermore, MISS JUSTIFY’s only sibling to race, an AMERICAN PHAROAH gelding named SWISS GAURD, also never hit the board in races beyond 6f. Based on her pedigree, it’s no surprise that she tired late on, and it was just grit, determination and raw talent that saw her finish 4th.
All of the above reinforces the fact that, going forward, MISS JUSTIFY can most certainly be a major factor in this division when cut back slightly in trip. After all, if you had stopped this race at the 1/8th pole, she would have been in a photo with CANDIED for the win and we’d all be taking her very seriously next time.
When her next start rolls around, I wouldn’t be focusing too much on MISS JUSTIFY’s final speed figure for this race, nor her finishing position or beaten margin, but instead, focus on how she performed for the first nine furlongs of the race. Whether she is going to be able to win a G1, I don’t know; but she remains somewhat unexposed, and her determined attitude will make her competitive wherever she shows up. Over shorter distances, she certainly shouldn’t be underestimated.
Saturday, Del Mar, Race 4: THOUGHT PROCESS (1st)
Two-year-old maiden fillies stretched out to one mile in race four at Del Mar on Saturday, where Phil D’Amato’s THOUGHT PROCESS destroyed her rivals in an impressive turf debut.
Bet down to even money under Hector Berrios, THOUGHT PROCESS broke well from the outside post and slotted over to travel comfortably in the two path, three lengths behind the fast pace being set by the eventual runner up, LEE’S BABY GIRL. With his mount striding out beautifully down the back stretch, Berrios let out an inch of rein as they passed the 3/8 pole and in a matter of strides, THOUGHT PROCESS had menacingly loomed upsides the leader while still racing in hand. Upon straightening, it was simply a matter of how far, as she maintained her powerful strides all the way to the wire, scoring by 3 1/2 lengths going away. With her ears pricked, she galloped out well and earned a very respectable Beyer of 81.
Admittedly, this wasn’t the strongest of MSW races and having shown plenty of promise to finish 3rd in a salty 5 1/2f MSW on the dirt at Del Mar, July 27, this race did look THOUGHT PROCESS’ for the taking, even before the starter had sprung the latch. Visually though, she looks the real deal and the way that she was able to make a big move into a fast pace with such ease was impressive. For a filly only making her second career start and turf debut (which came without a breeze on the lawn), she goes about her business with complete professionalism and when you combine all of this with her attractive turf pedigree, the ingredients are there for her to go a long way in this division.
By G1 winning sire COLLECTED, THOUGHT PROCESS is out of three-time winning turf router, CREATIVE THINKING, who scored over 1 1/2 miles in the 2018 Keertana Overnight Stakes at Churchill Downs. She herself, is a half-sister to turf winner CHA CHA TAP, out of a half-sister to two-time G3 winner D’HALLEVANT.
THOUGHT PROCESS’ 81 Beyer is certainly nothing to be sniffed at either. In fact, last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner, HARD TO JUSTIFY, had recorded Beyer figures of 59 and 80 prior to winning at Santa Anita in November. I’m not saying that she is going to be a lock for November, but this really was a nice performance.
THOUGHT PROCESS did jump back onto her left lead late on which wouldn’t typically be desirable; however, the effortlessly athletic fluidity of the change could actually be taken as a positive as it indicates that she still had plenty more left in the tank. It also came as she passed the section of the stretch without an inside running rail, so for now, it can just be put down to greenness.
It will be interesting to see how ambitious connections get with this exciting filly, because there really wasn’t much to dislike about Saturday’s performance. Wherever they point her, she looks a talented horse to follow.
Others To Mention…
I also want to give a mention to both CLAIRE’S CHARM and TENMA, two fillies who both shaped nicely in MSW races this weekend.
Starting at Saratoga with CLAIRE’S CHARM; Phil Bauer’s filly was heavily bet in the opener on Sunday but lost her chance at the gate when she was badly squeezed, bumped and pinched. She recovered well though, took the kickback like a seasoned pro, and rallied strongly in between horses to finish second.
It was a promising debut effort that earned CLAIRE’S CHARM a 76 Beyer, and as a $385,000 half sister to Bob Baffert’s extremely talented two-time G1 winner, MUTH, she’s bred to be pretty good too. We aren’t going to be getting a big price on her next time, but following this effort, she should break out the maiden ranks very soon and has the potential develop into a talented individual. Worth adding to your tracker.
Talking about Bob Baffert, he unleashed another potential star in race four at Del Mar on Sunday, as the $850,000 purchase, TENMA, gutted out an impressive maiden breaking debut.
Having broken slowly and outwards from gate seven, the daughter of NYQUIST trailed the field early before making a spectacular four wide move on the bend, blowing by her stablemate UHSA, and locking horns with MANCUSO down the stretch. With strong strides and a relentless attitude, TENMA got the of better of the argument and scored by a neck, covering 5 1/2f in 1:04.22 and earning a 78 Beyer.
I know that it’s not very original to suggest that a debut winner trained by Baffert could be above average, however, TENMA has a fascinating pedigree that opens up multiple options for her and is worth highlighting. By NYQUIST, she is a granddaughter of Aidan O’Brien’s former listed stake winning turf router, TWIRL. She herself, is a full sister to three black type performers, including O’Brien’s four-time G1 winning turf router, MISTY FOR ME, who has gone on to become the dam five black type performers, including three-time G1 winning turf router ROLY POLY, as well as three-time G1 winning turf sprinter, US NAVY FLAG.
With such strong GALILEO bloodlines, it will be interesting to see which direction Baffert points this filly in, as she certainly shaped as if a stretch out in trip will bring out the best in her down the line. Whether she ever tries the turf is another question, but for now, this was an eye-catching debut, and TENMA looks an exciting horse to follow.