ITM Players' Newsletter - Thanksgiving Week Recap
Plus other Weekend Eye Catchers!
Players Podcast - 12/2 Weekend Recap
Mike Pribozie and Nick Tammaro recap the Thanksgiving weekend Stakes and give some thoughts on the impressive two year olds winners. CD and Del Mar meets wrapped up with Graded Stakes.
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Weekend Eye Catchers - November 29-December 1, 2024
By Will Humphrey
During a week when we feasted on turkey, stuffing, and graded stakes races, there were plenty of eye-catching performances in both victory and defeat. Here are a few runners from the weekend who should be worth keeping an eye on in the near future.
Saturday, Del Mar, R3: CIRO DI MARZIO (2nd)
We’ll kick off proceedings this week with a look back at CIRO DI MARZIO’s promising American debut in Del Mar’s third on Saturday - an OC 40k/N1X turf allowance going one mile.
A beautifully bred three-year-old son of JUSTIFY and a half brother to the former Chad Brown trained Grade 1 winner FOG OF WAR, who downed WAR OF WILL in the 2018 Summer Stakes (G1), CIRO DI MARZIO cost €518,519 at the 2023 Goffs Dubai Breeze-Up Sale and had accumulated a 1-0-1 record from five starts back over the pond in England. He brought a respectable level of form into Saturday’s contest (OR 87) as he made his debut for the punter friendly Wes Ward barn, yet he was concerningly unloved at the windows and sent off at odds of 10/1 under Mike Smith - a far cry from his 9/2 morning line odds.
In hindsight, the 10/1 we were getting about him was tremendous value as he ran a super race; breaking well from gate six, he settled and traveled sweetly in mid-division before creeping closer along the rail on the far turn and bursting through into a slim lead at the 1/16 pole, only to be run down in the dying strides by another recent ITM Eye-catcher, SIENNOIS. In what was a promising performance, CDM crossed the wire one length back in second with an 86 Beyer. Here’s the stretch run.
Considering that this race marked CDM’S first start in America, his first start for Wesley Ward, his first start off a 105-day break, and his first start as a gelding, it was creditable effort to say the least, and having previously highlighted SIENNOIS in theses lines as a talented individual who was capable of putting in a big effort on his day, there was no disgrace defeat to that foe. Going forward, you’d now imagine that, with this first taste of American racing and extra shot of match fitness behind him, he’ll be able to step forward in his upcoming starts and get off the mark stateside. Furthermore, as a son of JUSTIFY, out of a GALILEO mare, who has already hit the board over 1 1/2 miles in England, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him improve with more distance either.
Whatever the case, this was an eye-catching USA debut from the Mrs. Fitriani Hay owned gelding who presumably shipped over here with big enough targets in mind. It’s no secret that European turf horses demand respect in the States and with seemingly more to offer, CIRO DI MARZIO will be worth following.
Saturday, Churchill Downs, R12: BURNHAM SQUARE (3rd)
Unsurprisingly, the twelve two-year-old races that Churchill Downs hosted on Saturday spawned an abundance of potential eye-catchers for this week’s newsletter, none more so BURNHAM SQUARE, who finished strongly for third in the nightcap - a MSW going 1 1/16 miles.
Ian Wilkes’ trainee was making just his second career start on Saturday following a runner-up effort over six furlongs at Keeneland last month, in which, he shaped for all the world as if more ground would be to his advantage. By moving his Beyer speed figure from a 58 to an 83, the two-year-old son of LIAM’S MAP proved more ground was indeed what he was after. The only things was though, on this occasion at least, the distance still proved to be insufficient.
In similar style to on debut, he lacked speed early and found himself well off the pace, racing around double-digit lengths off the lead in tenth as the field passed through the opening half mile in 47.72. Also in similar style to on debut, Francisco Arrieta was nudging on him from halfway down the back stretch but it was only when he hit the far turn that he finally clicked into gear, swiftly circling runners towards the outside before coming six wide into the stretch and maintaining a furious rally to miss by just 3/4 lengths. Here’s the stretch run, where you can see him flying late on. What you don’t see in this clip however is the gallop out that he then put in - strong, and about seven lengths ahead of anyone else.
Now, it’s often easy to get carried away with fast finishers who get beaten and then gallop out on front of the field, believing that if they had just saved ground here or made this move there, they’d certainly have found the winners’ circle and therefore, should win next time - some horses just never get up. However, this guy could be an exception for multiple reasons.
Firstly, connections have the option of applying blinkers, which should theoretically help him travel better/sit closer early on, meaning that he doesn’t have so much late ground to make up. They could also stretch him out to 1 1/8 miles, which should have a similar benefit to the blinkers. Or, considering that his dam and granddam were G2 winning turf routers, connections could make a surface switch to the turf with BH, where horses typically find it easier to close from the rear and there is less of an advantage given to horses who possess strong early speed.
Essentially, this well-bred individual has now gone close in both starts and improved his figs for a trainer whose runners tend to develop over time, yet there are still many stones left unturned. He shapes well visually, and as he’s been sent off at odds of 30/1 and 18/1 in both starts to date, there’s also a chance that, if keeping him onside, you can catch him at a squarish price.
Sunday, Churchill Downs, R8: THE WARDEN (2nd)
When Bill Mott, Tyler Gaffalione and Juddmonte team up with a runner hailing from the same family as CLOSE HATCHES, IDIOMATIC, TACITUS, and so on, they’re always going to be hard to beat against MSW company and so it wasn’t much of a surprise to see BURNING GLORY get the job done at odds of 6/5 in the one mile eighth on Sunday. He was forced to pull out all the stops however, because Ron Moquett’s pesky 28/1 shot, THE WARDEN, simply would not lie down in what was a very taking effort.
Prior to Sunday’s race, the two-year-old colt by WAR OF WILL had recorded Beyer speed figures of 50 and 59 in two MSW races on the turf when trained by Mark Salvaggio. Even though the ownership of THE WARDEN hadn’t changed for Sunday’s race, the trainer had, as Moquett had recently taken the helm and instantly made the switch to dirt, following a series of impressive drills over the surface at Penn National.
It was little surprise to see bettors allow this colt to be sent off at such a price - after all, there was nothing in his PP’s to suggest that he’d make such a bold showing; however, following a clean break, THE WARDEN pressed a contested pace while parked three wide, put away his two sparing partners rounding for home and forged into a clear lead at the top off the stretch before locking horns with BURNING GLORY. Now, at any stage of the stretch run, THE WARDEN could have unashamedly conceded defeat to the chalk, who looked as if he was going to just saunter on by at the head of the lane, but he didn’t - he fought like a terrier and quite frankly, didn’t deserve to loose. Here’s the stretch run, where you can see just how dogged he was and also, just how far clear the front two pulled of the others - 11 lengths in total.
Whether it was the surface switch, trainer switch, a little bit of both, or just the simple fact that he’s a young and improving horse, this was a huge step forward from THE WARDEN, who ran a career best Beyer of 75. He may not be a stakes horse in the making; however, someone saw enough in him to flesh out $170k for him as a two-year-old this May and with an attitude as commendable as the that one he displayed on Sunday, it seems inevitable that he will break his maiden before long, with the option of two-turns on dirt likely to eek out some further improvement. In the hope that he’ll be a respectable enough price once again next time, you should keep this determined young chap on side.
Winners to Mention…
As per usual, I also want to give a mention to a few impressive winners from the week who will be worth keeping an eye on going forward.
We’ll start off by wheeling the clock back to Thanksgiving, the day in which DEEP MANHATTAN made this very impressive five length winning debut for Cherie DeVaux, John Gunther and Eurowest Bloodstock Services. By JUSTIFY, this two-year-old colt is the eighth foal out of G3 winner/2x G1 runner-up turf router TAKE THE RIBBON, making him a half to recent Virginia Oaks winner, DEEP SATIN. This was an eye-catching performance to say the least - one that earned him an 84 Beyer - and for now, he looks destined for big things.
Moving onto Saturday, and we have to talk about PATCH ADAMS, who did this in the fifth at Churchill Downs, blitzing a MSW field by over ten lengths while covering 7f in a time of 1:20.77, just 0.33 off the twelve year old track record - incredible considering that he did it under a hand ride! By INTO MISCHIEF, out of a stakes winning half sister to G1 winner AMERICAN PATRIOT, he’s bred to be a high-class performer and more importantly, bred to get further than this. So, for him to have earned a 98 Beyer second out over a sprint trip in such style really is impressive and going forward, there looks no reason why he can’t continue to progress under the tutelage of Brad Cox. At this criminally early stage of the process, he seems, to my eye at least, a legit Kentucky Derby contender.
Down at Gulfstream on Saturday, I was also taken by this victory from the Todd Pletcher trained, ENLIGHTEN, who broke his maiden stylishly at the fifth attempt. Admittedly the $450k son of CITY OF LIGHT did get a dream rail trip to score here, however, he did it nicely regardless and also off a 343-day layoff. In his two prior turf tries last year, he had finished just a nose behind both CUGINO and DASHMAN in separate MSW races, so it’s fair to say that his two-year-old form has worked out well and going forward, he could be the type to rack up a sequence of wins in Hallendale this winter.
Back at Churchill Downs on Sunday, we witnessed a couple of impressive performances from three-year-olds and none more so than the 8 1/4 lengths romp that GRAND JOB delivered in the seventh. The raw speed figure he ran (88 Beyer) wouldn’t scream stakes winner in the making and it wasn’t a particularly high quality field that he beat, however, if you watch the video, it’s hard not to be impressed with his athletic and energetic late strides which strongly suggest that, if challenged, he would have found plenty in reserve - he certainly didn’t look a tired horse here. The fascinating, and really quite rare feature about this colt, who is clearly thriving on the dirt and now two-for two on the surface, is that he actually started his career on the turf in Ireland where he remained a maiden after four starts. In fact, his mother did the same; having won three times in England through 2011, she ended up competing at Charles Town in 2014! When you do a little more digging into this son of JUSTIFY’s pedigree, there is actually plenty of dirt form, so its not all that surprising to see him excelling right now, but whatever the case, he’s clearly thriving on the main track and one would imagine that bigger targets are in his near future.
Out of the Tracker…
It’s now been six months since ITM President PTF encouraged me to start this weekly newsletter segment and I’m happy to say that following and wagering on ITM Eye-catchers, when and where appropriate, has been a successful and profitable handicapping tool. However, they haven’t all achieved what was projected for them and so from now on, for not wanting to have a tracker full of dead wood, I’ll be highlighting the horses who’ll be exiting my own tracker and no longer considered to be ITM Eye-catchers. Consequently, when former ITME’s with current entries are highlighted both in these lines and Saturday’s ‘Horses to Follow’ segment, I’ll be highlighting horses who I still believe should be kept onside/given extra consideration when wagering.
Exiting the tracker this week are…
LA FANTASTICA - Half to SPEED BOAT BEACH did some likable things on debut; is now 0-0-1 for 5 starts with a top Beyer of 59.
PERFECT FORCE - Shaped early in his career as if he’d come into his own over route trips; remains a maiden after seven starts.
MIDNIGHT MILE - Well bred European turf router who flashed potential in her first couple of USA starts but has disappointed since and has provided little value.
ANAKARINA - Half sister to HOIST THE GOLD was impressive on debut but has not progressed as expected.
Former ITM Eye-catchers With Current Entries…
It was another profitable week for recent ITM Eye-catchers on the track. Thursday thru Sunday, nineteen ITME’s produced six winners, three double digit runner-up efforts, and a $2.00 win ROI of $4.43, aided by winners such as NEOM BEACH ($15.08), SIENNOIS ($42.20), and FIRST RESORT ($14.66).
Make sure to keep your eyes peeled for these former ITME’s with current entries…
Friday
TP R5: FINAL GAMBIT (8/5)
Saturday
AQ R8: MUHIMMA
FG R6: FANCY QUALITY (3/1)
OP R10: VOLT
I hope that you had an enjoyable and successful Thanksgiving week at the windows, and good luck this week!
We are so glad you started this newsletter. Great insight