ITM Players' Newsletter - Kentucky Derby Market Watch & Weekend Eye Catchers
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Weekend Eye Catchers
January 11-12, 2025
By Will Humphrey
Following another informative weekend of winter racing, here are a few horses to keep onside going forward.
Saturday, Gulfstream Park, R1: HURRICANE EXPRESS (2nd)
To kick off this week’s eye-catchers review, let’s look back at the fast-closing runner-up effort that HURRICANE EXPRESS delivered in the Saturday opener at Gulfstream - a MC25K going 7 1/2f on the turf.
Having broken cleanly from gate ten under Joe Bravo, the four-year-old son of MORE THAN READY suffered substantial ground loss around the clubhouse turn when being floated way out into the seven path by a runner towards his inside. The trouble resulted in him falling back to ninth position early, ~6L behind the eventual gate-to-wire winner, ETON. Having then worked his way back down into the two path on the back stretch, HURRICANE EXPRESS gently crept his way into the race and looked to be in possession of menacing momentum on the home bend. However, he then had to briefly steady in traffic and concede further ground loss when forced from behind horses into the five-path turning for home. When finally straightened for the drive and let loose down the centre of the track, he shot past no less than six rivals inside the final furlong and made up four lengths on the ground saving 7/2 winner, bursting his way back into the camera shot to finish an eye-catching second.
Would he ever have beaten the winner? I’m not sure. But owing to the ground loss, this impeccably bred former Chad Brown trainee was no doubt better than the margin of defeat would suggest, and given the circumstances, I thought this was a solid barn debut for trainer Jeff Engler. Not only did he suffer an inadequate trip on Saturday, but he also had to overcome a 98-day layoff; he was asked to close on a track which, as was proven by the gate-to-wire winner here, has been exceptionally hard to close on; and also, this 7 1/2f distance was unquestionably on the sharp side for him too. He might not have cut the Chad Brown mustard, nor have lived up to the standards of his multiple graded stake winning dam, but HURRICANE EXPRESS does look to have found his friends racing at this maiden claiming level and with this return to action now behind him and a better trip next time, likely over further, I’d be looking for him to take a step forward from this runner-up effort and enter the winners’ circle before long - hopefully at a respectable price once again.
Saturday, Tampa Bay Downs, R7: AMERICAN RETRO (4th)
Next up, let’s take a look back at the strong fourth place finish from AMERICAN RETRO in Saturday’s 1 1/16-mile Wayward Lass S. at Tampa.
Having seen her 10/1 ML odds crumble to 9/2 by post time, the Ian Wilkes trained $200k daughter of AMERICAN PHAROAH broke well from gate four and settled nicely into a comfortable mid-pack position in the two path down the back stretch, closely stalking the even money favorite, PEIGNOIR. As the even pace then quickened heading into and around the final turn, she was undoubtedly traveling best of all under a motionless Antonio Gallardo. However, she was also being forced wait in behind a solid wall of horses that contained the eventual top three finishers, allowing those rivals to gather valuable momentum off the bend and get the jump on her. With just over a quarter mile left to run and still three lengths to make up on the leaders, Gallardo skillfully managed to work AMERICAN RETRO out from the rail into the four path, from where, he received a determined finishing effort from the mare that produced the fastest late closing sectionals in the race (12.50s final furlong time) and saw them hit the wire in a three way photo for second. HERE’S THE REPLAY. The photo unfortunately went against AMERICAN RETRO, and she had to settle for an off-the-board finish in fourth. However, considering the trip that she sat and the margins separating the second-through-fourth place finishers at the wire, it’s easily argued that she was better than the bare result would suggest.
While acknowledging the fact that this wasn’t the deepest of stakes races, this was a strong effort in defeat from the lightly raced five-year-old nonetheless, especially as she was making just her second start back from a 274-day layoff, her stakes debut, and her first ever start around two turns on dirt. While she may not have a huge amount of scope for improvement in general at her age, she should be able to step forward somewhat from this better-than-looks fourth place finish when she next returns to make her third start of the form cycle and beyond, and you’d now hope to see her picking up similar quality events in the coming months. Her attitude is hugely commendable and although she’s clearly a fragile mare, now looks a good time to keep her onside and capitalize on the fact that she’s in a rich vein of healthy form at present, seemingly sitting on a profitable upcoming run of results.
Saturday, Fair Grounds, R6: HAY JUDE (3rd)
Owing to the scratch of GOSGER at Gulfstream and the abandonment of Turfway’s Saturday card, HAY JUDE was the only horse flagged up in Saturday’s ‘Horses to Follow’ email that actually had the chance to line up. An eventual third place finish in the 6f OC 100k/N1X at the Fair Grounds wasn’t what I, nor the betting public who hammered him into even money was hoping for but regardless, he looks a horse to keep onside.
On Saturday, I wrote about how the wickedly fast pace forecast would be beneficial to Tom Amoss’ three-year-old son of AURELIUS MAXIMUS, as it would string the field out somewhat and therefore, make life easier for Edgar Morales to work out a trip from the rail on HAY JUDE, allowing him to strut his stuff as predicted. Unfortunately, though, that’s not how it played out. The pace was honest - fractions of 22.21, 46.04 were set - but there was absolutely no stringing out of the field and while under a tight hold on the leaders heels throughout, HAY JUDE never saw daylight until it was all too late. The field was tightly bunched all the way up to the 1/8th pole and as you can see from the stretch run video HERE, Morales was desperately struggling for a clear path. When he finally found that daylight, HAY JUDE made a valiant bid for glory but just couldn’t muster up enough of a rally to get by the first and second place finishers, both of whom are talented horses in their own right. He eventually had to settle for a half-length defeat in third.
A bad trip and a disappointing result it was, but I didn’t feel HAY JUDE lost anything in defeat here and regardless of the result, it was encouraging to see him prove his ability outside of state bred restricted company. Having previously broken his maiden by eight lengths, dusted his rivals in a LA bred stake and then finished a troubled second to the highly regarded SMOKEN WICKED in the Louisiana Champions Day Juvenile S. last time out, when suffering similar misfortune from gate two, shaping like the best horse in that race, I have little reservation about the fact that this colt is highly talented and with a likable attitude such as his, he’ll no doubt be returning to the winners’ circle before long. Low draws have cost him victory twice in a row now, but that may not be a bad thing if it means that we get a slightly inflated price about him next time and with only four starts behind him, chances are he’s not finished improving just yet. Regardless of this defeat, HAY JUDE remains an exiting Louisiana bred 3YO and I for one will be keeping my eyes peeled for when and where he next shows up.
Winners to Mention…
Regular readers will be well aware that I’d now typically go onto wax lyrical about three or four winners from the past weekend who I wouldn’t be rushing to oppose in their upcoming starts. This week however, there’s only one: RIVER THAMES.
Fortune favors the brave and Todd Pletcher was just that with regards to his campaigning of this $200k son of MACLEAN’S MUSIC, opting to bypass what would have been a free square in a NY bred restricted race, instead taking on a tougher field for a bigger purse in South Florida. RIVER THAMES was clearly impressing Pletcher at home and when he then went ahead and did THIS, easily swatting aside the highly regarded VANDERBILT in an effort that saw him cover 6f in 1:10.27 with a 94 Beyer, it became clear that Pletcher knew exactly what he had on his hands. RIVER THAMES was mightily impressive.
Seeing as this guy’s dam was a sprinter, his second dam was a sprinter and a half sibling to G1 winning sprinters, DADS CAPS and PAULASSILVERLINING, and also, offspring of MACLEAN’S MUSIC have an average winning distance of just 6.1f, it’ll be interesting to see whether connections now try stretching RIVER THAMES out in distance to hunt some lucrative 3YO prizes. Regardless of where he’s pointed next though, having struck all the right notes on Saturday, there’s little doubt that big things are on his agenda and I for one am excited to see him out again.
Out of the Tracker…
ITMEs exiting the tracker this week, to ensure that those with current entires highlighted in both these lines and Saturday’s ‘Horses to Follow’ email are those I still believe to be worth keeping onside/given extra consideration when wagering are…
JUSTDENY: Danny Gargan’s well bred turf router looked set to excel in three turn turf marathons last summer but hasn’t really lived up to expectations and once again disappointed at a short-price last week.
ROYAL MAJESTY: Another extremely well-bred turf router, ROYAL MAJESTY showed plenty of ability when competing in the three-year-old graded stakes in New York last year but was disappointingly coming up short without excuse each time. Life isn’t going to be any easier for him in open company this year and with Gulfstream his likely next port of call, I don’t want to be endorsing him on that tight, speed friendly track.
Former ITM Eye-catchers With Current Entries
Only four recent ITM Eye-catchers ran last week, SCARLET POPPY ($3.60) being the sole winner. Weather permitting, we’ll see a little more action this week and if we do, make sure to keep your eyes peeled for these former ITME’s with current entries…
Saturday
GP R8: BEDAZZLE ‘EM (AE)
FG R8: STIR CRAZY
FG R12: GOLDEN AFTERNOON
FG R12: ADMIRAL DENNIS
LRL R4: ONCOURTCOMMENTATOR
Sunday
FG R8: PRETTY SASSY
I hope that you had an enjoyable and successful past week at the windows, and good luck this week!