ITM Players' Newsletter - Eclipse Award Finalists & Weekend Recap
Plus the return of Weekend Eye Catchers & updated Derby contenders!
Players’ Podcast: Weekend Recap from Gulfstream and Santa Anita + Eclipse Finalists Announced
PTF and Nick Tammaro are back with you at a look at last weekend’s racing action including Triple Crown preps with a big win from Barnes at Santa Anita and a promising maiden winner named Rodriguez (also for Bob Baffert) on the undercard as well.
They also talk about the Eclipse Award Finalists and talk a little Texas sports.
2025 Kentucky Derby Top 10 + Other Contenders
After a big weekend of Derby preps with key races in California, Florida, Arkansas, New York, and Kentucky, who is #1 in the latest Derby Top 10 update?
Also updated with recent Beyers, replays, and next likely starts for the top 20 contenders. Plus written thoughts on over 40 other horses, including contenders from Japan and Dubai!
Will Humphrey delivered a winning Pick Five ticket on Sunday’s ITM Plus Show for Oaklawn, paying $3,498.
Subscribe to ITM Plus for more exclusive picks, written analysis, and shows from your favorite ITM contributors!
Weekend Eye Catchers
January 4-5, 2025
By Will Humphrey
Hello and welcome to the first of ITM’s weekly Eye Catchers emails of 2025. Each week, I’ll be taking a look back at the past weekend’s action, highlighting several beaten horses who should be plugged into your preferred tracker and kept onside going forward, as well as pinpointing any impressive winners who could be destined for greater things. I had a lot of fun writing these articles last year and am excited to be doing so again in 2025. So, without further ado, let’s dive in!
Saturday, Santa Anita, R6: MARIA TALLCHIEF (2nd)
Let’s start off this week by wheeling back to the sixth Santa Anita on Saturday - a CA bred MSW for 3YO fillies on the turf - to take a look at the runner-up effort from Phil D’Amato’s second time starter, MARIA TALLCHIEF.
Sent to post at odds of 5/1, the Nick Alexander owned and bred daughter of OM, whose two time winning dam was a half-sister to ENOLA GREY and ALICE MARBLE - two stalwarts of Cal-bred racing who won eleven stakes between them - MARIA TALLCHIEF broke well and traveled powerfully in a rail stalking position through the opening half of the six furlong contest on Saturday, but then had to check hard as the field bunched up into the bend, ultimately losing ground at a pivotal stage of the contest. Impressively, she recovered almost immediately from the interference and jumped straight back onto bit under little encouragement from rider Kyle Frey, carrying him back into contention along the rail as they rounded for home. Straightened for the drive, and more trouble was met, as the pair then found themselves boxed in and frantically searching for room up until the 1/8th pole, while the 2/5 fav and eventual winner MISO PHANCY was rolling with a clear trip down the centre. Having finally shaken clear inside the final furlong, MARIA TALLCHIEF drove on valiantly into better-than-looks second place finish and strode out nicely across the wire, two lengths behind the long-gone winner with a 59 Beyer. She then went ahead and galloped out past the winner post race.
I’m not sure whether I’d go as far as to say that with a clean trip MARIA TALLCHIEF would have caused an upset here - the winner won authoritatively – but there’s little doubt in my mind that she was better than the bare result/margin of defeat would suggest, and she lost little in defeat. I like the fact that this race marked a significant step forward from her debut third place effort over five furlongs when she wasn’t nearly so strong at the finish, and I thought that physically, she looked a well put together type. She strides in a manner that suggests more ground could be to her advantage, yet she’s clearly a horse with gears and her fiery attitude suggests that sprinting will continue to be her best game for now. With a strong pedigree such as hers and a top Phil D’Amato team behind her who hit at 27% ($2.16 ROI) with third out maidens who finished ITM last out, she should be able to progress again with a cleaner trip in her upcoming starts and she looks a sure-fire winner in waiting.
Saturday, Gulfstream, R11: LOVE CERVERE (2nd)
Sticking with the 3YO filly theme, it wasn’t long after MARIA TALLCHIEF had run that Christophe Clement’s second time starter, LOVE CERVERE, delivered a hugely eye-catching effort to finish second in Saturday’s Ginger Brew S. at Gulfstream going one mile on the turf.
Having broken from the inside post, Tyler Gaffalione tried to squeeze LOVE CERVERE into a forward rail stalking position heading into the first bend, however, it got tight as the field bunched up and, although no rival made contact with her, the 7/1 shot evidently became claustrophobic down towards the inside and hit the running rail hard, consequently losing four of five spots as well as significant momentum. To her credit, she was seemingly unfazed by the trouble encountered, recovered well and proceeded to travel sweetly in mid-pack down the back stretch, from where, as the race heated up in front, she responded willingly to minimal urging from T Gaff on the turn for home and loomed as a huge threat entering the lane. Having then had to briefly alter course back inside when straightened for the drive, she quickened up impressively in the stretch, nosing her way past recent stake winner CIVETTA to take the lead close home, only to agonizingly get nailed on the wire by the fast finishing 9/5 favorite and recent Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) third, NITROGEN.
Whether or not the early interference cost LOVE CERVERE the win in this race is up for debate and quite honestly, it’s a debate I’ll sit on the fence about. It clearly didn’t help her chance, however, the winner also suffered a troubled trip and finished like she should have won by five. You can watch the stretch run HERE, although I’d encourage you to pull up the full race replay if possible and form your own opinion.
Whatever the case, whether this daughter of INTO MISCHIEF, who hails from the same family as GSW’s SKY TREASURE, SURGICAL STRIKE, and $600k earner AXTHELM should have won is neither here nor there at this point in time. What we should be talking about is the fact that for a second time starter who was making her two turn debut following a first out success over 6f in November (71 Beyer), this was a huge effort to split two proven stake quality fillies in NITROGEN and CIVETTA, who had already made three and four starts, respectively.
Going forward, as Clement’s horses tend to do, you’d like to think that with this first route race now behind her, LC is only going to continue to progress and play a major role in similar contest throughout 2025. She makes a great impression visually and seemingly has a super attitude. What’s more, it’s noteworthy that over the last five years, only six other second time starting turf horses trained by Clement had managed to hit the board in a stake; five of them became stake winners, four became graded stake winners and two became G1 winners. That’s great company for LOVE CERVERE to be keeping and following this eye-catching effort, at this stage of her career, she looks a talented filly with a big future and one to keep onside.
Sunday, Santa Anita, R8: OMNIPONTET (2nd)
Moving back over to Santa Anita for their Sunday program, I thought that OMNIPONTET shaped encouragingly in the eighth race - an OC 80k/N2X going one mile on the turf - and could be one to keep onside going forward.
A key feature of this race was the ferocious early pace set by OMNIPONTET’s stable mate, EXCELERINA, who blasted through fractions of 22.44 and 45.34, opening up a four-length lead on the field and spreading them out by no less than 13 lengths at halfway. Making just her second start for the barn of Phil D’Amato, the former Brazilian G1 winner OMNIPONTET stalked the Flavian Prat ridden even money favorite and eventual winner SAREEHA ~10 lengths back in fifth down the back stretch, before trying to follow the electric move of that foe on the bend. Ultimately, OMNIPONTET proved no match for SAREEHA, who drove away to a 4 1/2 lengths success and recorded her third win in her last four starts, looking as if a dabble in stakes company is in her near future. However, D’Amato’s trainee ran a valiant race in defeat. Slicing her way past rivals on the bend, the 11/1 shot made a sticky lead change at the top of the lane when trying to push on into second, losing that spot to the fast finishing REAL FIRE, but then rebalanced herself and fully re-engaged, knuckling down admirably under Antonio Fresu to forge her way back into a clear second at the wire before galloping out past the winner post race. For the effort, OMNIPONTET was awarded a 76 Beyer.
Although well beaten at the line, I thought that there was no disgrace in OMNIPONTET finishing second in this spot, especially as it was just her second start in the USA, second off a 426-day break, and her first route race since September 2023, when she finished a nose second in a Brazilian G1 to the promising now Graham Motion trained filly, FOR FLYING. She showed significant improvement from her stateside debut in the Senator Ken Maddy S. over 5f in November, pace to quicken past rivals on the bend, good stamina late on in the game, and a terrific attitude to boot. Although one could argue that she was aided by a strong pace here, there was plenty to like about her effort and with this further American racecourse experience and return to two turns now behind her, I’d be hoping that OMNIPONTET can press on in her upcoming starts and continue to feature in similar contests, possibly coming into her own over further than one mile. With the promise of more to come in America, she’s a G1 winning filly worth keeping an eye on.
Winners to Mention…
As always, I’d also like to name check a couple of winners from the weekend who should be worth keeping onside in the future.
Starting with Bob Baffert’s tremendously well bred three-year-old son of AUTHENTIC, RODRIGUEZ, it was hard not to be impressed when he did THIS in the second at Santa Anita on Saturday, drawing away from his rivals to score by seven widening lengths with a geared down 93 Beyer. Following a runner-up effort to Saturday’s San Vicente (G2) second ROMANESQUE on debut, this marked a huge step forward for the SF Racing LLC Starlight Racing or Madaket Stables LLC, et al owned colt, whose Beyer figure was only one point slower than his stablemate and early Kentucky Derby favorite BARNES ran just three races later. While I try to refrain from hyping up Baffert trained runners who look impressive breaking their maidens (cos’ they all look like flippin’ rockets!) this guy was good, and I’m sure that we can expect to hear more about RODRIGUEZ in the near future.
Back over at the Fair Grounds on Sunday, and I finally succumbed to the idea that HALL OF FAME is indeed a pretty smart individual worth keeping onside, as he won like THIS under Jose Ortiz, making it 2-for-2 as a four-year-old. The heavily hyped $1.4m son of GUN RUNNER, who broke his maiden last year with a 94 Beyer before disappointing in both the Risen Star S. (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G2), looks a far more accomplished runner this year and a return to stakes company surely now beckons. Sure, he was 1-5 in this spot - anything less would have been a disappointment - and it also remains a question as to whether he’s as effective off lasix (3-for-3 with; 0-for-3 with a top Beyer of 82 without), but for now at least, he’s performing exceptionally well and looks a smart older horse who could be set for a big 2025.
Out of the Tracker…
ITMEs exiting the tracker this week, to ensure that those with current entries highlighted in both these lines and Saturday’s ‘Horses to Follow’ email are those I still believe to be worth keeping onside/given extra consideration when wagering are…
GRAND LOVE: A half sister to G1 winner Malibu Prayer as well 4x GSW and G1 runner up, Valid, GRAND LOVE won impressively on debut but has disappointed thereafter while providing little value.
GUN PARTY: A $1.7m yearling purchase out of G1 winner CARINA MIA, GUN PARTY showed early promise but was well beaten in his first start against winners last June and hasn’t been seen since. Currently working at the Fair Grounds, he’s a slow grinding horse who shapes as if he’ll need a run to return to peak fitness and is not a horse I don’t want to endorse on his first start back.
NAVY SEAL: This former Aidan O’Brien trainee who hails from the unprecedented URBAN SEA linage showed plenty of promise finishing behind WEST HOLLYWOOD at the Spa last summer but has continuously stepped back since and was poor when finishing just eighth at GP on Saturday. Possibly STONE AGE mark two?
Former ITM Eye-catchers With Current Entries
It was another profitable week for recent ITM Eye-catchers on the track last week, with G W’S GIRL ($12.80), ENLIGHTEN ($11.40) and VERSUS ($9.00) all scoring on Saturday. So, make sure to keep your eyes peeled for these former ITME’s with current entries…
Thursday
FG R5: PARTY ON GIRL
Friday
FG R7: THINK BIG
GP R7: JUSTDENY
OP R9: NEOM BEACH
TAM R9: SCARLET POPPY
Saturday
TP R5: DAIRAGO
TP R6: EARHART
I hope that you had an enjoyable and successful past week at the windows, and good luck this week!