ITM Players' Newsletter - Early Breeders' Cup Predictions
Players’ Podcast - Insights and Predictions for Breeders’ Cup
PTF kicks off the new show with JK as they take a look back at the Keeneland Fall Challenge and reflect on a breakthrough performance from She Feels Pretty.
Next up, they take a look at the ten horses they most want to see at the Breeders’ Cup — this is the audio of a video over at our In the Money Media Youtube channel. Navigate over there and drop a comment with the horses you most want to see.
In the next segment, PTF and JK make their Way Too Early Predictions for this year’s Breeders’ Cup — once again, this is the audio of a video over at our In the Money Media Youtube channel. Navigate over there and drop a comment with your way too early predictions.
Last but not least, Jackson Muniz drops by to tell us about his maiden voyage to Keeneland racecourse, giving his opinion of the place and telling us about a close call in the Keeneland Friday contest as well as a preview of Thursday’s HorsePlayer Happy Hour.
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Weekend Eye Catchers - October 10-13, 2024
By Will Humphrey
A few horses from the past week to keep an eye on going forward…
Thursday, Keeneland, Race 5: MINOUSHKA (1st)
Tepid early fractions of 23.93, 49.39 gave forwardly placed horses an advantage in this 1 1/16 miles N1X turf allowance, helping the 27/1 pace setter, SMOOTH WAVES, hold on for the runner-up spot. The second-though-fifth finishers were all positioned within four lengths of the pace at the second point of call, which makes MINOUSHKA’s facile three length romp even more impressive, as the Brendan Walsh trained French import sliced through the field from almost ten lengths last to kick clear in deep stretch, exuding class and looking in a different league to her opposition.
Graded and listed stake placed back over the pond, it was no surprise to see this well-bred €170,000 daughter of STARSPANGLEDBANNER hammered into even money by post time, but I’m not sure anyone was expecting her to overcome a 127-day layoff in such eye-popping fashion. In what was her American debut, she looked to relish the firm turf under her hooves (which she had never experienced in France) and hit the line full of energy before galloping out strongly, earning an 84 Beyer for the effort. Given that she was beaten less than five lengths in the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (G1) over one-mile on soft turf in May, you’d have to think that, over one-mile + on firm turf in America, she could easily step forward from this run and potentially be up to winning graded stakes on this side of the Atlantic.
Over the last five years, Walsh has trained eleven Euro shippers to win first off the bench in their American debuts and then run back. Of those eleven winners, four became stake winners, three became graded stake winners, and seven became graded stakes placed in America. Following this performance, there’s nothing to suggest that MINOUSHKA can’t add to those stats, and she’ll definitely be worth keeping an eye on.
Saturday, Keeneland, Race 2: PLENSA (2nd)
Having gone just 1-for-42 in 2023, it’s fair to say that trainer Rusty Arnold is having a standout year with his first time starters, as his current tally sits at 5-for-27 (19%, $2.71 ROI). He very nearly added to that haul on Saturday too, as PLENSA overcame a lack of experience to finish an eye-catching second in Keeneland’s second race.
Green, keen and slightly wide early on, Geroux had to nurture this guy through the race and give him a couple of firm taps down the shoulder as they straightened down the back stretch, asking him to pick up the bridle, travel forward, and keep straight. He took his time to figure out the task at hand, consistently going back and forth between traveling strongly and looking as if he was just out for a Sunday stroll, dropping back to be over six lengths off the pace as the leaders galloped through a half in 47.11. Then, just like that passing the 3/8 pole, the penny seemed to drop and suddenly, Geroux found himself sitting up on plenty of horse, awaiting room to make a run. When in the clear and straightened for the drive, PLENSA efficiently changed leads, lowered himself and extended his stride nicely, making up significant ground on the always prominent winner to finish a conspicuous second by two lengths.
Without showing any signs of being a future superstar, there were plenty of things to like about this performance. Firstly, it was noticeable that, despite being the only horse in the field without prior racing experience, PLENSA took at the windows, with his 10/1 ML odds falling to 6/1 by post time, which always a good sign for debutants going out for barns whose runners aren’t prone to being heavily bet. Secondly, it was clear how green he was throughout which never allowed Geroux to find that all important rhythm on him, making the fact that he still finished second really quite impressive. Also, he shaped well visually, maintaining big, athletic strides all the way to the wire, yet he still looked as if he has room to grow, strengthen and fill into his frame, offering the hope of physical improvement to go along with the mental maturation that will inevitably come his way.
All in all, while leaving plenty of room for improvement, I thought that this was an encouraging start to the career of this nicely bred colt and in the expectation that he’ll only step forward drastically for the effort, he looks one to keep an eye on.
Saturday, BAQ, Race 6: VOLT (2nd)
Having earned an 85 Beyer when just missing behind future G1 runner-up TIP TOP THOMAS on debut, KEEWAYDIN was unsurprisingly drilled into 1/5 favoritism for BAQ’s 7f MSW on Saturday, and duly obliged as the chalk. That’s not to say that he didn’t have to work for his victory though, as the Mark Casse trained VOLT, made him pull out all the stops and looks a smart prospect to follow himself.
A grey son of TAPIT, out of MGS winner MY WANDY’S GIRL, and a half to G3 winner, MY PRANKSTER, VOLT had been purchased for $300k after breezing 21-flat in April and bet down to favoritism when making his debut at Colonial in the summer. He disappointed with a never threatening fourth place finish that day but showed far more on Saturday; stalking the pace in the three path down the back stretch, he made a sustained move around the outside of horses rounding into the lane and briefly looked as if he could swoop on by to score, forcing Dylan Davis to go for the crop on the favorite. KEEWAYDIN’s class and ideal race set-up ultimately allowed him to sustain a healthy lead and saw him score by 1 3/4 lengths, but VOLT never dropped away from him, maintaining strong strides all the way to the wire as the front pair pulled ten lengths clear of the third-place finisher. For the effort, VOLT was awarded a very respectable Beyer of 87 - one point faster than the 86 Beyer TIP TOP THOMAS earned when finishing second in last week’s Champagne Stakes (G1).
The benefit of experience and stretch out to 7f really seemed to bring out improvement in this colt, who was unlucky to have bumped into a smart individual here (KEEWAYDIN, is definitely a name to note as well). He’d never have beaten the winner, but could potentially have gotten closer if he hadn’t gone so wide on the bend and/or sat a little closer early on, which makes you wonder whether he’ll be fitted with blinkers next time?
Nevertheless, this was an above par performance from a second out 2yo; his gallop out and pedigree would suggest that sprint trips will continue to see him in a good light and assuming that there’s more to come after only two starts, he should be tough to beat in a similar spot next time, potentially going onto become an above average individual.
Saturday, Keeneland, Race 7: KEEPSAKE (2nd)
Incredibly, even though four of them started at odds of 2/1 or shorter, Brad Cox has gone 0-for-8 with first time starters at the Keeneland Fall Meet. That’s a stat that he’ll probably be well aware of and not care for much, especially as KEEPSAKE should really have scored in the seventh on Saturday.
Unsurprisingly for a debutant going out for the barn, KEEPSAKE was bet into 2/1 favoritism for the six furlong event but essentially lost all chance at the break, as she was bumped, pinched, taken up sharply by Flavian Prat, and gave the field a head start, falling back to be over ten lengths off the pace at the first point of call. From the position that she was in, winning had become an almost impossible task, especially as the pace was only moderate and held up well, with the winner and the third-through-fifth finishers all sitting in the first four positions at the second point of call. That makes it even more impressive that KEEPSAKE came flying into second late on, despite having had to check very sharply again rounding the home bend, losing momentum when shut out of a rail run inside the 99/1 shot, FREE PASSAGE. All things considered, this was a huge effort from KEEPSAKE, who simply lost the race at the break.
There’s little doubt that the betting public were spot on in thinking that this filly was the best horse in the race, and it goes without saying that she seems better than her 61 Beyer would suggest. It would be surprising if, at what will likely be skinny enough odds, she couldn’t make amends next time. Taking a longer look into the future, based on what she achieved in defeat, the physical and visual impression that she left, and the fact that she’s an INTO MISCHIEF filly, hailing from a family riddled with stakes winners, she seems to have the ingredients required to become a talented filly. I’ll be putting KEEPSAKE in the tracker, expecting her to break the maiden next time out, and I won't be surprised if she goes onto become a name we hear more about.
Sunday, BAQ, Race 3: REDISTRICTING (2nd)
ANDTHEWINNERIS led home a $42.80 Chad Brown exacta in the Grade 3 Knickerbocker Stakes at BAQ on Sunday, as his stablemate and 6/5 post time favorite, REDISTRICTING, had to settle for the runner-up spot. Take nothing away from the winner who bagged his second graded stake victory, but there’s little doubt about the fact that the best horse in the race finished second.
Making only his fifth lifetime start and first for 316-days, having been sidelined since he was pulled up in last December’s Hollywood Derby (G1) at Del Mar, REDISTRICTING was fresh off the layoff and pulled hard under Manny Franco in the early stages, closely stalking the 23.56, 47.78 fractions being set up front. With seemingly a ton of horse underneath him rounding into the stretch, Franco took a couple of glances over his right shoulder, knowing that he was loaded with horse and only had to find daylight in order to draw off for the win. Unfortunately, however, that daylight never materialized. Frantically searching for running room, Franco remained stuck in behind a wall of horses and was forced to keep his mount firmly on the bridle right up until the 1/16 pole, when he then angled REDISTRICTING into the centre of the track and asked him to make one final bid for glory. To the colt’s credit, he gave it a good go, making up a length on the fully extended winner inside the final hundred yards to get within a neck of that foe at the wire, but just came up short. The way in which he then galloped out like a fresh horse in front of the field only added insult to injury for his supporters.
To say that this was a tough beat would be an understatement. With a view to the future however, plenty of positives can be taken away from this comeback effort as REDISTRICTING proved that, even off such a lengthy break, he’s good enough to win graded stakes. Having been pitched into G1 company in just his second career start following a scintillating debut win, he’s clearly held in tremendously high regard by the Chad Brown team, which in itself is a huge accolade, and with a pedigree such as his (by KINGMAN, O/O a half sister to 6x G1/2011 BC Turf winner, ST NICHOLAS ABBEY), it would be a surprise if he didn’t find the winner’s circle in a similar contest soon. He’s clearly a fragile colt yet riddled with talent and as he only has the five starts underneath him, it will be fun to see how far he can now climb. REDISTRICTING is definitely a name to note.
I hope that you had an enjoyable and successful past week at the windows, and good luck this week!