ITM Players' Newsletter - California Crown Recap
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Players’ Podcast: Breaking Contest News + California Crown Recap
The show starts off with breaking news as Darin Zoccali of Twinspires.com announces the re-birth of the Kentucky Derby Betting Challenge and gives us an overview of the excellent new contest platform over at twinspires.com, including nearly daily contest action. There’s also a BCBC/NHC qualifier this weekend.
Next up, Nick Tammaro is here with PTF as they look back at a great inaugural California Crown and talk about potential Breeders’ Cup implications for all of last weekend’s major prep races.
A New Dawn: Morning Line Club Develops World's First Marketplace For Trading Shares in Racehorses
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Weekend Eye Catchers - September 27-30, 2024
By Will Humphrey
Well, what a weekend that was! From G1 thrillers to informative MSW’s, the action came thick and fast as we were treated to some stellar racing with standout performances in both victory and defeat. Here are a few horses who I’ll be taking away from the weekend, putting in the tracker, and keeping a close eye on going forward.
Friday, BAQ, Race 6: SOVEREIGNTY (2nd)
Going back to BAQ on Friday, this one-mile MSW for two-year-olds had the feel of one that could work out very well, as Chad Brown’s $725,000 protege, PRAETOR, took the victory with a 90 Beyer - but only just. Flying late was the Godolphin homebred SOVEREIGNTY, who could be the horse to take out of the race.
A son of INTO MISCHIEF, hailing from the same family as three-time GS/2009 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes (G1) winner, MUSHKA, SOVEREIGNTY had caught the eye on debut with a respectable fourth place finish over six furlongs at Saratoga, where he came rolling from the rear and shaped as if he would be benefited by more distance.
More distance proved to be exactly what he was after, as he improved his Beyer to an 89 by comfortably sitting much closer to the speed, before he once again delivered a power packed finish, making up over three lengths in the stretch to this time miss by just a neck. The front two pulled over four lengths clear of the regally bred 2/1 second choice, CLASSICIST, who was exiting a third-place finish in one of the hottest MSW’s from Saratoga, and there was then a further 19 ½ length gap back to the fourth-place finisher. SOVEREIGNTY then proceeded to gallop out well clear of the field, leaving no reservations about his stamina, ability, or the validity of his performance.
Although this colt may have already broken a couple of hearts by doing his best work too late in both of his starts now, it seems that he was just unfortunate to bump into a nice two-year-old who took advantage of the clear rail bias here, and it’s far too early to think that for one reason or another, he won’t ever get up in time. He still looks a little green when asked to quicken and appears to have more development in him, plus connections still have the option of stretching him out to beyond one mile and/or adding blinkers, if needs must.
He doesn’t yet look the finished article but is already performing to a high level, and with his wicked pedigree and top connections behind him, he remains an exciting juvenile with a promising future and a first career success looking imminent.
Saturday, Santa Anita, Race 3: DAIRAGO (4th)
At long last, at the age of five, G1 runner-up SYCATCHER finally managed to break his maiden in the third at Santa Anita on Saturday, as he stamped his class over his seven rivals to score comfortably. Just over two lengths behind him in fourth, finished Bob Hess’ DAIRAGO, who, without showing any obvious signs of being a superstar, I thought shaped with plenty of promise in his American debut.
A French bred three-year-old son of CITY OF LIGHT, who interestingly comes from the same family as Japanese superstar LEMON POP, as well as British G1 winner/sire of sires, DANEHILL, DAIRAGO was making only his second racecourse appearance on Saturday, having flashed ability by finishing second on debut at Dundalk (Ire) in April, splitting an Aidan O’Brien odds-on favorite and two future GSP performers.
He took some money at the windows on Saturday and stepped into the gate at odds of 5/1, but didn’t do his supporters any favors by then breaking slowly and trailing the field by a good seven lengths entering the first bend. From the position that he found himself in down the back stretch, winning had become an almost impossible task; however, I was still taken with how he consistently progressed through the field to cross the wire in fourth, despite the chart comment reading “consistently bumped stretch”. For his effort, he was awarded a respectable Beyer speed figure of 80.
Considering that this race marked his first start for the trainer, first start in America, first start for 169-days, it was his first route, and his first start on turf, I expect that DAIRAGO learned plenty from this outing and with the run now underneath him, it would be disappointing if he didn’t progress forward with an upward trajectory – possibly aided by a stretch out to beyond one mile.
Despite the off-the-board finish, there appears to be large scope for improvement in this colt and following this encouraging showing, I’d be surprised if he wasn’t able to shed the maiden tag soon - hopefully at a reasonable price.
Saturday, BAQ, Race 11: NOBLE CONFESSOR (2nd)
At odds of 4/5, ZULU KINGDOM took his career record to three-for-three at BAQ on Saturday, as he made it back-to-back G3 wins over yielding turf in the Pilgrim Stakes. It wasn’t quite as straight forward as his supporters would have liked though, as Todd Pletcher’s NOBLE CONFESSOR got to within a neck of him at the wire and on another day, could easily have caused the upset.
Out of a half sister to MGSW/G1 placed turf router, SWEET MELANIA, this son of QUALITY ROAD had always been held in high regard by connections and made a nice impression when finishing third on debut behind future G1 winner, CHANCER MCPATRICK. However, he then disappointed as a short-priced favorite in start number two, finishing a well-beaten fifth when stepped up to one mile, having never threatened or appeared entirely comfortable in the stretch.
Switched to the turf for the first time, this was much more like it from NC; he showed good speed from the gate, traveled powerfully along the rail in second, picked up nicely in the stretch, changed leads efficiently, and was full of run late on. He was unfortunate that he ended up getting caught in a pocket rounding the home bend and had to wait far longer than ideal for a run, as with only one more jump, he’d have found the winner’s circle. The fact that he then galloped out well in advance of the others, seemingly full of energy, only added insult to injury for his supporters and it wouldn’t be unreasonable to suggest that the best horse on the day finished second.
Regardless of the defeat, this was an eye-catching turf debut from this colt, who looked far more comfortable on the surface and could have more to come when he gets onto firmer ground. The fact that he was entered into this spot as a maiden also highlights the regard that connections hold him in and following this effort, it will be interesting to see whether Pletcher opts to break the maiden in a MSW or continue down the stakes route. Wherever he next shows up though, off the back of this effort, it’s hard to believe that he won't be winning prestigious turf races before long and to state the obvious, he looks a winner in waiting.
Saturday, Santa Anita, Race 8: KING OF GOSFORD (3rd)
I could quite easily write another blog waxing lyrical over the ride that Mike Smith gave on FIRST PEACE in the Eddie D. Stakes on Saturday, because you’ll struggle to find anything quite as beautiful as that. Instead, though, I’ll stick to the script and highlight the run of the third-place finisher, KING OF GOSFORD, who could easily be winning similars contests before too long.
Even though he brought a perfect three-for-three C&D record into this race, bettors had reason to oppose the formerly Irish trained son of ZOUSTAR, as he was taking on established older horses for the first time and seemingly had a mountain to climb on speed figures. However, he more than held his own and actually ran much better than his third-place finish would even suggest, as he traveled comfortably in a stalking position down the hill and into the stretch, but just never found daylight until it was all too late. As Mike Smith was squeezing his way through along the rail, Fresu was checking off of heels and essentially lost all chance in mid stretch. To KOG’s credit, he then picked back up to determinedly edge his way back into the money, but there was no way he was getting back into the exacta.
Did the troubled trip cost him the win? Probably not. However, for a first start against older horses he ran a huge race regardless, and still managed to beat the likes of BIG INVASION and JOHNNY PODRES, which is nothing to be sniffed at. The career best 88 Beyer that he earned (which can justifiably be upgraded by a point or two) is right in line with the level to which FIRST PEACE was performing as a 3yo last year, and as is commonly seen among sprinters, it wouldn’t be in any way surprising to see this guy improve to be of a similar standard by this time next year. He clearly loves the Santa Anita downhill turf course and going forward, he looks one to keep onside in these races.
Sunday, Churchill Downs, Race 10: LADY LIBERTY (3rd)
SOUK PLAZA was one of the most hyped-up maidens going into this weekend and following her win in the nightcap beneath the Twin Spires on Sunday, it’s easy to see why. Having broken poorly and met traffic rounding the home bend, it was raw talent that won her the race and it would be fair to say that she’s far better than the winning margin suggests. As a half sister to G3 winner ENCINO, out of a half-sister to 2007 Kentucky Derby winner STREET SENSE, the Godolphin owned, Brad Cox trained daughter of STREET BOSS is bred to be a cut above average and one would expect that she is only going to step forward from this effort. She looks one to keep an eye on.
In the same race, I was also taken by the performance of Cherie DeVaux’s $625,000 daughter of CONSTITUTION, LADY LIBERTY, who was also troubled at the start and had to check after getting in tight, 50yds or so out of the gate, which resulted in her racing seven lengths last of eleven down the back stretch. She traveled very powerfully in rear though, took the kickback well, glided her way past rivals towards the rail under a typical Brian Hernandez, Jr, ride, and then finished strongly from a poor position to run into the money. Her finishing speed was almost identical to that of the winner’s (who was already a length ahead of her turning in) and she then went ahead and galloped out strongly upsides the winner, leaving the impression that the two were more evenly matched than the one length margin at the wire suggests. She also shaped as if a stretch out to beyond six furlongs will see her to good effect.
She’s out of a stakes winning/MGSP half-sister to G1 runner-up MYTHICAL POWER, and a half-sister to 2024 Summertime Oaks (G2) show finisher, JANE AUSTIN, so is certainly bred to be talented and on pedigree, should continue to develop with time. What’s more, Cherie DeVaux’s two-year-old debutants often aren’t quite as cranked up first time out as other trainers would have them (12% FTS 2yo’s), so it wouldn’t be surprising to see this filly take large steps forward in her upcoming races and she could be tough to beat in similar contests.
I hope that you had an enjoyable and successful past week at the windows, and good luck this week!