ITM Players' Newsletter - Breeders' Cup Prep Recap
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Weekend Eye Catchers - October 04-06, 2024
By Will Humphrey
From G1 thrillers to informative MSW’s, the past weekend had it all. The action came thick and fast as we were treated to some stellar racing with standout performances in both victory and defeat, providing plenty of clues to help us cash future tickets. Here are a few horses who I’ll be taking away from the weekend, putting in the tracker, and keeping a close eye on going forward.
Friday, Keeneland, Race 8: MECHAYA (4th)
Although MECHAYA had faded out of the money by the time the wire came in Friday’s Jessamine Stakes (G2) at Keeneland, I thought that the $150k daughter of LIAM’S MAP shaped as if she could develop into a very smart individual moving forward and will be one to keep onside.
A fourth-place finish in a G2 is nothing to be sniffed at as it is, though you’d imagine that connections were left wondering what might have been if things had panned out differently in the race. Having broken outwards and been bounced around like a pinball leaving the gate, she had her hind heel clipped from behind, briefly lost her back end, and was then set alight early on, wasting unnecessary energy by pulling too hard through the first half of the contest. Then in the stretch, when looking to come with a menacing run at the 3/16 pole, she was hemmed in by Dettori on the eventual winner and had to steady in order not to clip heels with TOTALY JUSTIFIED, which stalled her momentum and understandably, she was unable to re-rally, eventually crossing the wire two lengths back in fourth.
Regardless of the off-the-board finish, there were plenty of things to like about this performance. First of all, it was noticeable that although bettors had reason to question the validity of her debut victory at Kentucky Downs (69 Beyer), she took money at the windows, with her 15/1 ML odds welting away to 8/1 by post time - always a good sign with horses going out for connections whose runners aren’t prone to being heavily bet. It was also noticeable how she was traveling as well, if not better than anyone rounding the home turn and looked to have every chance when the inference occurred late on, despite having pulled so hard and wasted so much energy through the early stages of the race. Lastly, I liked how she showed great tenacity to battle away and hold on for fourth in the closing stages, which is an essential trait among successful thoroughbreds.
All in all, there were plenty of positives to take out of this effort and ample indications of raw ability from MECHAYA, who’ll have learnt plenty from the outing and is entitled to take large steps forward in her upcoming starts. She’s a filly who’s likely to be overlooked and go off at respectable prices while she’s still figuring the game out, but the talent seems to be there and she’s in good hands to help her fulfill her potential. I’d be keen to keep her onside moving forward with the view to catching her at a square price.
Saturday, BAQ, Race 5: DASHMAN (4th)
Once again displaying an impressive turn of foot, CARSON’S RUN registered his third graded stake victory in Saturday’s Jockey Club Derby Invitational Stakes (G3) at BAQ, swooping around the field from last position to win cozily at the wire. Nobody was stopping the winner, although the steadily improving DASHMAN still caught the eye by running better than his fourth-place finish would suggest.
Having progressed with each start to break his maiden in July, before following up against elders at Kentucky Downs last time, the Rainin Frances owned son of OSCAR PERFORMANCE was facing by far his biggest test on Saturday, as Brian Lynch stepped him up in distance and pitched him in against stakes company for the first time.
Admittedly he never looked like winning, although he was unquestionably traveling as well as anyone rounding the home bend and was unlucky to have found himself boxed in along the rail turning in, as this forced Manny Franco to check his momentum upon straightening when going in search of racing room out wide. Just when it looked as if he had found daylight towards the centre of the track, the winner then came came rolling from the rear and penned DASHMAN back in behind horses, meaning that he had to once again check and steady. Unsurprisingly for the big, long striding distance horse that he is, the turn of foot wasn’t there to see him sprint his way back into the money when he eventually got clear at the furlong pole; however, he was noticeably closing ground on the leaders at the wire and galloped out strongly, leaving you to wonder, had he been granted a smooth stretch run, how close could he have gone?
Regardless of the defeat, by being beaten less than two lengths by a two-time G1 winner and recording a fourth straight improved Beyer speed figure of 88, DASHMAN confirmed himself to be a stakes quality animal, yet as he only has six starts under his belt, he remains open to plenty of further improvement. While shaping better than the bare result and speed figure would suggest, he didn’t look in any way short of stamina or outclassed here and assuming that he has more to offer going forward, he should be capable of winning a high-level marathon turf stake before long - hopefully at a respectable price.
Sunday, BAQ, Race 8: YOUGOTTAHAVEHOPE (3rd)
Former ITM ‘Eye-Catchers’, ABIENTOT and CIVETTA, completed a $44.75 exacta in BAQ’s Matron Stakes (G3) on Sunday, extending what was a successful weekend for horses formerly highlighted in these lines. Less than a length behind the pair in third finished the Horacio De Paz trained, YOUGOTTAHAVEHOPE, who in only her second lifetime start, confirmed herself to be a horse with a future.
Having recorded a Beyer speed figure of 69 when crushing in a NY bred restricted MSW on the dirt at Saratoga, 63-days ago, the dark bay/brown daughter of TWIRLING CANDY was facing a stiff task on Sunday as she faced largely more experienced rivals in what was her turf debut, not aided by the fact that she drew the outside post in gate twelve. She more than held her own though; contesting a heated early tempo (fractions of 21.58, 44.48) while remaining in the three-path turning for home, she gamely pushed her way into a slim lead late on, only to be passed in the dying strides by two more experienced rivals who had benefited from an ideal pace scenario. She showed a wonderfully determined attitude to hold on for the show spot and by a long way fared best of the forwardly placed horses, jumping her Beyer up to a 73.
Considering that this was only her second lifetime start and first on turf, this was just about as much as could have been asked of De Paz’s trainee, who didn’t have any particular excuses for defeat, but showed plenty of favorable qualities and professionalism to earn her first stakes placing.
Being by TWIRLING CANDY, out of a NO NAY NEVER mare and hailing from a long line of European black-type runners who trace back to 2001 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner, SAKHEE, it was unsurprising that she looked a complete natural on the turf and you’d expect that, with the benefit of time and racing experience, she’s only going to step forward from this effort. It wouldn’t be surprising if she was able to win a similar type of race before long and she looks a smart juvenile filly worth following.
Sunday, Keeneland, Race 10: GOLDEN AFTERNOON (2nd)
At odds of 38/1, MINARET STATION booked his ticket to the Breeder’s Cup on Sunday, as he swooped past the entire field to cozily win the Bourbon Stakes (G2) and round out a superb opening weekend’s action at Keeneland. Completing the $563.03 exacta was Carlo Vaccarezza’s $70k son of GOLDENCENTS, GOLDEN AFTERNOON, who in defeat, also shaped with immense promise and looks a juvenile to make a note of.
An extremely well-bred grandson of seven-time graded stake/2010 Spinster Stakes (G1) winner, ACOMA, GA was heavily bet on debut at Kentucky Downs last month and justifiably so, as he couldn’t have been visually any more impressive in winning by just under three lengths with a 69 Beyer.
Pitched into graded stakes company for what was his route debut against far more experienced rivals, bettors were understandably less in favor of the colt and sent him to the gate at odds of 11/1 on Sunday. He clearly didn’t know his odds though and ran a winning race in second; closely stalking the blistering 22.29, 47.02 fractions, he responded willingly to his rider’s urgings around the far turn and bravely battled away down the stretch, sandwiched in between the second and third betting choices, CAVALLO BAY and CLOCKTOWER. Despite being bumped around a little in between horses, GM fought off both of those rivals and had seemingly sewn things up with fifty yards to run, only to be inhaled late on by the fast-finishing winner.
Quite honestly, GM and his connections didn’t deserve to lose this race. On the bright side from them however, through backing up his debut victory with one of the gamest runner-up efforts you will find and displaying heaps of ability to become graded stakes placed on only his second start, you’d have to think that they’ll be celebrating a stakes win soon.
Visually, he looks a very well put together two-year-old who has a beautiful flowing stride, and it shouldn’t be understated how impressive it was to see him fighting in between horses through the lane, when a lot of inexperienced juveniles would have backed out of there. He still left room for improvement regarding how he settles in the early stages of the race, as he over-raced somewhat around the first bend, but all in all, it was an eye-catching effort from such a lightly raced, well bred colt. Assuming that he’s only going to continue on an upward trajectory with this first route underneath him, GOLDEN AFTERNOON looks an exciting addition to Vaccarezza’s barn and one to keep an eye on.
Others to mention…
I typically like to cherry-pick five horses each week for this column, looking for sneakily good performances from runners who may be able to provide value in their upcoming starts. However, with the vast amount of options that I had to choose from this week, it was tough narrowing it down to just five. So, rather than leaving some eye-catching performances out, I thought I’d just spin through the others in one go…
First of all, and this one isn’t so much of an under the radar performance, but didn’t MORE THAN LOOKS run a terrific race in the Coolmore Turf MIle Stakes (G1) at Keeneland on Saturday? Having been squarely bumped around the first bend, he weaved his way through traffic in the stretch and came flying home from an impossible position to finish just a length behind CARL SPACKLER, who couldn’t have asked for an easier time of things on the front end. MTL’s running style isn’t particularly favorable in these types of races and will more times than not create risks when playing him at a short price - especially if he goes to Del Mar - but he unquestionably looks a better horse now aged four-year-old and clearly has the talent to land a top-level race of this kind. Following this effort, he’ll demand respect whenever and wherever he next shows up.
Another name for the notebook is G W’S GIRL, who massively outran her 34/1 odds in the Indian Summer Stakes at Keeneland on Sunday. The Greg Compton trained daughter of MUNNINGS was a 9/1 debut winner at Delaware only 17-days ago and proved that was no fluke. She traveled best of all throughout the race and rounding into the stretch but was denied a clear run and shuffled back into eighth at the furlong pole. When she eventually found room, she stayed on resolutely to hit the wire in a photo with CHASING LIBERTY for fourth and the more I watch the race, the more I think that with a better trip, she’d have at least hit the board. Nevertheless, this was a solid from this lightly raced filly who looks to have plenty of ability and is bred to be above par also. (Out of a half sister to ten-time stake winning sprinter/$1.4m earner, ESSENCE HIT MAN). I expect that she’ll be a square price again next time but shouldn’t be underestimated.
Last but by no means least, I’ll give a shoutout to Tim Yakteen’s two-year-old son of GRAZEN, SABERTOOTH, who somehow managed to finish second for the fourth time in as many starts in his career to date, as he was promoted the place spot in Sunday’s Zuma Beach Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita. He had a fairly torrid time of things in the stretch on Sunday as he was twice denied a clear run before receiving a hard bump at the wire, and it wouldn’t be crazy to think that he was actually the best horse on the day. With a string of runner-up finishes to his name, one could start to question how genuine he is in a finish, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see blinkers applied in the near future. However, just like his stake winning dam and G1 winning half-brother GOING TO VEGAS, he clearly has the ability to be winning at this level and so it will be interesting to see whether Yakteen continues down the stakes route with him, or opts to break his maiden in a MSW. Regardless of where he shows up though, he’s clearly talented and surely won’t remain a maiden much longer.
I hope that you had an enjoyable and successful past week at the windows, and good luck this week!