International Horses - Speed Figure Conversions
via Rob Dove
The famed Rob Dove (one of the Top 10 Pro Punters in the UK) checks in with his analysis of the International runners at Breeders’ Cup. As you’ve likely heard PTF discuss, Rob has a way of “converting” sectionals of international runners into a Beyer speed figure equivalent.
Additionally, Steven Bonnick provided detailed form analysis to accompany the speed figure conversions. Together, it’s quite useful information that you won’t get anywhere else!
Thanks to Steven and Rob for their detailed thoughts!
Equivalent Beyers are derived from Timeform Ratings, where applicable.
Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing.
Juvenile Turf Sprint
Tiger Belle
Equivalent Beyer: 82
A fast filly who continues to improve, coming into this off a career-best in France last time out. Hasn’t got any form on firm going and needs to improve on her best efforts, although could get a decent trip here behind duelling speed. Best price of 12/1 currently looks about right.
Big Evs
Equivalent Beyer: 92
A very fast horse who only has one bad run to his name. That came against elders in the Nunthorpe two back but he bounced right back to his best next time out in the Flying Childers. Firm ground is fine and clear chance here on ratings, but the Weaver pair inside are potential spoilers. Will be hard to beat if he can clear on his own terms, but there has to be a doubt about that and the market hasn’t missed him. 11/4 looks about right.
Givemethebeatboys
Equivalent Beyer: 87
This colt has a little bit to find on form but has a couple of nice angles. Most notably, the drop back to this distance looks like it could really suit this strong-travelling, keen sort, who is going to love stalking off a furious gallop. Nicely drawn to do pull those tactics off and double-figure prices look attractive, as he showed that he is not out of place in Group 1 races in Europe last time out. 11/1 looks more than fair.
Starlust
Equivalent Beyer: 83
Steady improvement has brought him out of handicaps and into Group company. Behind Givemethebeatboys last time out, however, and doesn’t look up to this. 33/1 reflects his chance.
Cherry Blossom
Equivalent Beyer: 83
Comes into the race off a solid fourth in Group 1 company and represents the Aidan O’Brien yard, so hard to dismiss too easily. Needs more on her best form and I’m not sure dropping to this distance on fast ground will see her to best effect. 14/1 looks a bit short.
Valiant Force
Equivalent Beyer: 81
Raced on the wrong side when behind Givemethtebeatboys in May prior to springing a huge shock at Royal Ascot, showing blistering speed on his side to win with plenty in hand. Looked to get bogged down in soft ground in a Group 1 in France last time out and plenty to prove now off a break, particularly as the draw has not been kind to him. 16/1 doesn’t offer much value.
Juvenile Fillies Turf
Laulne
Equivalent Beyer: 85
Spent her career in Europe so far but I like the switch to a very good West coast barn. Dropped to sprinting last time out having been keen prior but should be able to stretch out in a race of this nature and her speed could prove useful in what is likely to be a tactical contest. Big price for one with a nice profile with 20/1 looking OK.
Content
Equivalent Beyer: 80
Represents top stable and got back on track at the Curragh last time out. That win was on bad ground and she looked to be at an advantage racing wide off the chopped up inner having raced against the bias on her penultimate start. Disappointing on her only start on fast going and weak in the market in recent days, but was impressive last time out and it’s possible that this superbly bred May foal is getting better as the season goes on. 12/1 makes a small bit of appeal.
Porta Fortuna
Equivalent Beyer: 88
Back to form to win a Group 1 last time out and has just about the best form in the race based on that effort. The rub is that run was over six furlongs and she has to stretch out here, although she is bred to do so. Only managed third on her penultimate start over seven panels but that doesn’t tell the full story, as she was possibly on the unfavoured inside there – the other two horses to race on the rail finished last and second last and came out to finish 2nd and 1st in Group 1 races next time out. Well drawn and is the one to beat; 11/2 looks decent.
Carla’s Way
Equivalent Beyer: 87
Very talented filly who looked better than ever last time out in the Rockfel Stakes. Got a dream trip that day and very much got first run on the second, but was visually impressive and the time was excellent. Drawn a bit wider than ideal here but there’s hardly a load of pace signed here and perfectly feasible that she can clear and get the lead, or a prime stalking pitch. Very good chance but 3s looks to reflect it accurately.
Les Pavots
Equivalent Beyer: 83
Confirmed she was a Group 1 performer in the Marcel Boussac last time out when throwing in some very quick late splits. Handed out a three-length beating to Laulne two back and very solid on form but she has had a bit of a disaster with the draw. Going to need a strong pace and plenty of luck; 12/1 about right with those caveats.
Juvenile
Cuban Thunder
Equivalent Beyer: NA
Switches to US trainer for dirt debut. Masses to find and no promise for dirt in breeding. Zero appeal, even at 100/1.
Juvenile Turf
River Tiber
Equivalent Beyer: 89
Looked one of Ballydoyle’s best juveniles earlier in the season but hasn’t quite kicked on in Group 1 company despite running well the last twice. Third to the exciting Vandeek on both occasions and there’s very little wrong with that form. Rates amongst the best in this field and looks ready for this step up in distance now. Very solid chance but was 6/1 earlier in the week and is only 11/4 now, which isn’t very juicy.
Unquestionable
Equivalent Beyer: 90
Impressive visually and on the clock when breaking his maiden and has run well twice since, while he had very valid excuses for a dull effort two back. Had a nice trip tracking the speed in a steadily run affair last time out in a Group 1 at Longchamp but still ran very well behind a leading 2000 Guineas hope last time out. Should stretch out and that last run was just about the best form on offer, although Moore picks River Tiber and drawn a little wider than ideal in 8. 4/1 about right.
Mountain Bear
Equivalent Beyer: 84
Improving sort who clocked some rapid splits when winning a Listed race at Dundalk last time out; a fast effort that gives him a real shot here. That run was on synthetics, however, and plenty more needed back on turf from a very wide draw. 14s doesn’t look like it has much edge.
Filly & Mare Turf
Warm Heart
Equivalent Beyer: 101
Improved throughout the season and comes here following two wins in Group 1 races. Her last two runs have been in races that were run to suit, but she has travelled and quickened well in both and has been idling in the lead. Showed plenty of pace when clocking fast last splits most recently and drop in trip should be fine. Prominent type who should get the run of the race from a nice draw – the one to beat and 3/1 probably a smidge big.
With The Moonlight
Equivalent Beyer: NA
Well known to American bettors and hasn’t been able to live with the best of the home team this year. Plenty to find with the likes of Fev Rover, and even more to find with her compatriots, so little appeal at 20/1.
Win Marilyn
Equivalent Beyer: 101
Working towards something better based off the last twice and it’s possible this has been her target all along. Will need to step forward again on her third run off a lay-off but that’s possible and her best form in Japan and Hong Kong makes her hard to entirely dismiss, particularly given her good post and 25/1 odds, which looks to underestimate her chance a tad.
Inspiral
Equivalent Beyer: 108
Back to her best the last twice when getting a good trip at Deauville, and again last time at Newmarket when storming clear in most impressive fashion. Little doubt that she has the best form here, but stretches out in what may be a tactical affair. Has run the odd stinker, can be keen and has plenty of speed, so will need Dettori to be at his brilliant best. Her chance is obvious but is priced accordingly and I don’t think that there is much juice in the price at 5/2.
Lumiere Rock
Equivalent Beyer: 100
Two races in cheek-pieces have seen her reach a new level of form, too good for Jackie Oh two back and then running just behind top French filly Blue Rose Cen next time out in the Prix de l’Opera. Very much had the run of the race there but kept on nicely. She will need plenty of pace to run at and the draw has not been kind, so 14/1 looks about right.
State Occasion
Equivalent Beyer: 100
Good record under these conditions and ran great behind Lumiere Rock in the l’Opera last time. Had no hope there given her position off a very steady pace posted a blistering 32.94 for the final three furlongs. Gets the best jockey in the UK up which allays concerns about the draw somewhat, but is another who will need pace to run at and isn’t sure to get it. Still, 33s is probably a small overlay.
Filly & Mare Sprint
Meikei Yell
Equivalent Beyer: NA
Talented Japanese performer but this is a big ask first time out on dirt and there simply isn’t enough encouragement for the surface in her pedigree for her to be of interest in this spot. Little appeal even at 20/1.
Mile
Win Carnelian
Equivalent Beyer: 104
Yet to win at Group or Grade 1 level. Behind Songline off level weights last time having also finished behind her earlier in the year and has to give her 3lb here. However, wasn’t that far away from her and looks to have been prepping for this, and much better drawn than that rival here. Could go well at 33/1, which looks OK.
Mawj
Equivalent Beyer: 102
Returned from a five month break to follow up her 1000 Guineas win in the QEII at Keeneland last time out. Showed a fine attitude there and bound to come on for that run. Has landed a decent post for one that likes to go forward and it’s possible that this race may prove tactical, which could suit her. Needs a career best but has plenty of upside still, although 3/1 looks short to me.
Songline
Equivalent Beyer: 107
Mighty Japanese mare whose form is hard to knock. Ran an excellent prep for this in the Mainichi Okan when arguably unlucky and that should put her spot on for this contest. Another who hasn’t really been favoured by the draw and all her very best form has come in well run races, which she is not guaranteed to get here. Leading chance on form, however, although 7/2 accurately reflects this.
Kelina
Equivalent Beyer: 104
Very strong record if you believe all she needs is fast ground and was most impressive when winning the Foret last time out, typically a leading trial for this race. Has a nice blend or speed and stamina and a good turn of foot too. Sadly, she has landed stall 11, which is going to make life difficult. Will likely need a good pace to run at to be seen at best effect; 7/1 is a little skinny now but watch for a drift.
Master Of The Seas
Equivalent Beyer: 108
Just touched off by the best turf horse in the US last time out having sat closer to the sharp pace than that rival in the Coolmore Turf Mile last time out, but only just missed. Looked very good the time before in the Woodbine Mile, but this slow-starter has been given the worst post in the field which is going to make life extremely difficult, for all that he has just about the best form in the race. 6/1 looks about right.
Turf
Shahryar
Equivalent Beyer: 102
Some good back class but hasn’t run to his best this year and much to prove now following a 20 length defeat last time, so 16/1 doesn’t look enticing.
Onesto
Equivalent Beyer: 110
Hasn’t had much luck in his career but looked as though he was putting it all together in the Arc last time out when producing some very fast splits to just miss second, but basically running the final three furlongs as fast as Ace Imapct, who would be 1/2 for this. Dipped below 11 seconds for the final furlong there and clearly has the tools to win a race of this nature, and arguably the best form. Underbet at 15/2 currently, but a slightly wider draw would have been nice.
Bolshoi Ballet
Equivalent Beyer: 104
Big number last time out but it rained through the card and there wasn’t only one other race run on turf after the going changed, so it’s hard to trust that number. Beat a weak field there and up against it based on everything we know about him prior. 20/1 looks about right.
Auguste Rodin
Equivalent Beyer: 107
Lurched from the sublime to the ridiculous this year but we know that he is very good when at his best. That is under these conditions and come here off a fine performance in the Irish Champion Stakes. Very solid claims and should get a lovely trip from a good draw, but at 11/4 is priced accordingly.
Broome
Equivalent Beyer: 99
Stayer who has looked to have lost has way this season. Blinkered here and could make the pace for better fancied stablemates; impossible to fancy for win purposes even at 50/1.
Mostahdaf
Equivalent Beyer: 111
Some excellent form that gives him a fine chance on paper. Only win over this distance came on synthetics in a race run at a crawl and looks a far from convincing stayer at this trip. Definite prospects if he does get home but not much juice in the price at 3/1.
King Of Steel
Equivalent Beyer: 107
Won the British Champion Stakes last time out. Little between him and Auguste Rodin on a couple of runs but hard to see how Auguste Rodin doesn’t get a better trip here given their running styles and draws. 6/1 looks about the right price.
Classic
Derma Sotogake
Equivalent Beyer: NA
Solid sixth in the Kentucky Derby but hasn’t been seen since. That form doesn’t look good enough anyway and a big ask to win a race like this on your first start in seven month; 16/1 doesn’t interest me.
Ushba Tesoro
Equivalent Beyer: NA
Dubai World Cup winner who benefitted from a suicidal early pace to run down a miler late on. Impressive there and keeps winning but extremely unlikely to get the kind of pace he got there here and how often is this race won by a deep closer? 9/2 looks tight to me.
Turf Sprint
Bradsell
Equivalent Beyer: 104
Behind Live In The Dream in the Nunthorpe and but probably didn’t enjoy the soft ground at the Curragh last time. Should do better on a sound surface and is well drawn with some of the best form in the race; solid shot but 9/2 reflects his chance.
Live In The Dream
Equivalent Beyer: 107
Rapid Nunthorpe winner who clearly did too much early in the Woodford last time. Ran fine there considering and should be at peak for this. Will be hard to catch if allowed his own way but whether the other speed will allow that is a big question mark. Hard to work out if 4/1 Is value or not as he’ll be 6/4 or 12/1 after a furlong.
Aesop’s Fables
Equivalent Beyer: 103
Career-best in the Prix de l’Abbaye when third in first time blinkers last time. That form has not worked out well and more needed here from a draw that could have been better. Price looks right at 14/1.
Jasper Krone
Equivalent Beyer: 102
Excellent effort in a Grade 1 in his native Japan last time when doing plenty in the lead. Drop to this trip should suit but draw is a big negative and he’s likely going to have to engage Live In The Dream early and wide, which won’t help either of their chances. 16/1 reflects the task he has.