Horses to Follow - September 21, 2024

By Will Humphrey

A few horses to consider using in your Saturday wagers. Good luck!

Gulfstream Race 7 - 2YO MSW (6f, Dirt): #10 MELODY MAN

• Trainer: Heather Smullen

• Jockey: Leonel Reyes

• Morning line odds: 7/2

If like me, you are someone who gets excited when an attractively bred two-year-old hits the track for the first time, then take a look at the Heather Smullen trained, MELODY MAN, who is set to debut in the seventh at Gulfstream on Saturday.

Owned and bred by Whisper Hill Farm LLC, the gray/roan son of INTO MISCHIEF (15% 2yo first-time starters) is out of the stake winning UNBRIDLED’S SONG mare, MELODY LADY, making him a half-brother to 2017 Kentucky Juvenile Stakes winner, BUY SELL HOLD, as well as 2020 Alfred G. Vanderbilt H. (G1) winner, VOLATILE, who ran a 100+ Beyer in three of his six starts and is now a burgeoning first-crop sire. If that’s not enough to get your blood pumping, MELODY MAN’s granddam, is/was two-time G1 winner LADY TAK, who earned a huge 110 Beyer when blitzing her rivals by almost five lengths in the 2003 Test Stakes (G1). 

There is an abundance of precocity in the family, and so it’s not particularly surprising to see that MELODY MAN has been turning heads in his morning works, recently firing three bullets including a blistering 46.82 half mile move, September 08. It’s also encouraging to see that all of his works are evenly spaced. 

Trainer Heather Smullen only went out on her own in April of this year, and so is yet to accumulate any significant statistics from her forty-six starters to date. However, she’s the former exercise rider of champions Caledonia Road and Tiz the Law, has been an assistant for trainer Ralph Nicks and Arindel Farms, and has recently worked closely with trainers Dale Romans and Phil Serpe, so it’s fair to say that she knows what the time of day is, and that’s reflected by the fact that she has already sent out a 4/1 debutant winner.

MELODY MAN has drawn favorably towards the outside in gate ten and has attracted top Gulfstream pilot, Leonel Reyes, in for the ride. All indications are that this horse should go well and with a pedigree such as his, it would be risky to kick off the late Pk5 without him on the ticket.  

Parx Race 10 - The Grade 3 Turf Monster Stakes (5f Turf): #4 JEAN VALJEAN

• Trainer: Elizabeth Merryman

• Jockey: Julio Hernandez

• Morning line odds: 9/2

Pin a tail in the donkey? That’s certainly how Saturday’s wide-open renewal of the Turf Monster Stakes looks on paper, but with the potential of more to come after only three starts on turf, I’m leaning towards the horse who defines the phrase, “new lease of life”: JEAN VALJEAN. 

A five-year-old son of UNCLE LINO, owned and bred by Hasting Farm LLC, JEAN VALJEAN seemed nothing more than a nice allowance horse in his first eleven starts on dirt, but has become a different animal since switching surfaces, winning all three of his turf starts by a combined 9 3/4 lengths with Beyer speed figures of 95, 95 and 93. 

Some may crab his from since those races came at Penn National and Laurel Park, however, the speed figures don’t lie and neither does the visual impression that he’s been leaving. His most impressive win came at Laurel two back, when he blitzed to the lead through terrifyingly fast fractions of 21.61, 42.95, opening up an insurmountable six length advantage on his rivals, before he waltzed home alone in front and stopped the clock for 5 1/2f in 1:00.83 - only 0.30 seconds off the twelve year old track record. Interestingly, the horse who chased him home in third that day, MID DAY IMAGE, came back to record a 95 Beyer at Saratoga next time out, finishing only a neck behind Saturday’s ML favorite, SOUPER QUEST. So, JEAN VALJEAN beat MID DAY IMAGE by 1 1/4 lengths; SOUPER QUEST beat him by a neck. Make of that what you please. The other horses to have exited that Laurel allowance certainly don’t dampen JV’s chances on Saturday either, as the fifth place finisher returned with a runner up effort to DEAN DELIVERS in the Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash Stakes (96 Beyer); the sixth place finisher returned with an easy win in a competitive allowance (86 Beyer); and the seventh place finisher came back to finish second in the Find Stakes, August 18. It was an above par group for an allowance at Laurel, and JEAN VALJEAN destroyed them. 

Although there are five or six others in here who look as though they will be trying to implement the same front running tactics as JV, the ease with which he’s been opening up out of the gate and blasting through sub 22.00 second opening quarters, makes me think that he’s going to emerge as the ‘speed of the speed’ here, and if he does, he could be tough to peg back. 

Elizabeth Merryman wouldn’t typically be held in the same regard as the likes of Casse or Clement, but she actually has a sneakily impressive 20% strike rate in turf sprints, and an even better 44% strike rate in turf sprint stakes (7-for-16; 75% ITM), having trained the likes of BC winner, CARAVEL, and current MD Turf Sprint Champion, WITTY. Turf sprints are her ball game, and she seems to have had JV training forwardly at Fair Hill Training Centre in Maryland since his last (geared down) victory at Penn National. 

This is obviously a wide-open race, but JEAN VALJEAN has done nothing wrong lately and might not have reached his ceiling in this division just yet. It would be brave to underestimate him, and I for one will be using him on my tickets. 

BAQ Race #8 Noble Damsel Stakes (One Mile, Turf): #2 FIVE TOWNS

• Trainer: Graham Motion

• Jockey: Jorge Ruiz

• Morning line odds: 6/1

With Saturday’s $175,000 Noble Damsel Stakes falling between the prestigious Saratoga and Keeneland Fall meets, this looks a good opportunity for Graham Motion’s, FIVE TOWNS, to register her first graded stake win. 

Hailing from the same family as recent Kentucky Downs Ladies Marathon Stakes (G3) show finisher, THREE PRIESTS, as well as G3 winner GUILTY TWELVE, and multiple G1 winning European turf router, AGAIN, the four-year-old daughter of LORD KANALOA has steadily been on the improve since she moved to America from England, recording improved TUS speed figures of 96, 102, 111 and 117, since she got off the mark at Gulfstream, March 23. 

Having readily beaten the recent $500,000 One Dreamer Stakes winner, SAFEEN, in the Dahlia Stakes at Laurel three back, and chased home four-time GSW/multiple G1 placed performer, FLUFFY SOCKS, in the Galloret Stakes (G2) at Pimlico two back, we last saw Motion’s trainee finishing third in the Canadian Stakes (G2) at Woodbine - a performance that was probably better than it first appeared. The winner, FULL COUNT FELICIA, came straight back to win last weekend’s E.P. Taylor Stakes (G1) in scintillating front running fashion, while the fourth-place finisher, FASHIONABLY FAB, also returned at Woodbine last weekend, winning the Ontario Matron Stakes (G3). In a race that sees four key players exiting allowance races, that’s standout form.

A repeat of her last start could potentially be good enough for FIVE TOWNS to score here, but as she now cuts back to a flat mile on what will hopefully be firm ground (which she hasn’t had in either of her last two starts), who’s to say that can’t continue her upward trajectory? It’s encouraging to see that Jorge Ruiz - who has a 2-1-0 record from three starts with FIVE TOWNS - gets back aboard for the ride today, as he seems to really click with this filly, and from a favorable draw in gate two, he should be able to adopt a prominent position in what is a seemingly pace-less affair.

It’s also encouraging to note that Ruiz has a superb 27% strike rate with Motion in turf stakes (12-for-45; $2.79 ROI), while Motion himself has an above par 19% strike rate in turf stakes at this track, and is having a standout year all round, hitting at a consistent 20% with a $2.23 ROI. 

Having returned to the work-tab with a couple of appetizing 5/8-mile drills, FIVE TOWNS appears to be arriving here ready to fire a big shot, and at around 6/1, she looks to be providing value. 

Parx Race 14 - Parx Sprint Stakes (6f, Dirt): #3 TWISTED RIDE

• Trainer: Michael Moore

• Jockey: Andy Hernandez

• Morning line odds: 5/1

Parx’s 50 cent Philly BIG 5 sequence rounds out with one of the most challenging handicapping contests that you will find on Saturday, with eight runners listed at between 7/2 and 8/1 on the ML. The exemplary record that TWISTED RIDE holds at Parx attracts me to him though, because in 18 starts at the Bensalem track, the five year old gelded son of GREAT NOTION has accumulated $483,758 in purses, through a sublime 9-4-2 (50% win, 83% ITM) recorded that includes four stake victories, plus a neck defeat to REPO ROCKS in the 2022 Let’s Give Thanks Stakes (95 Beyer). That’s a huge asset on a dirt track that many horses don’t take to. 

Despite his aging legs, Michael Moore’s trainee showed that he still retains all of his youthful exuberance two starts back, when massively outrunning his 34/1 odds to finish 2 1/4 lengths behind NAKATOMI and SKELLY in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt H. (G1) at Saratoga - a race in which he finished with the second fastest closing sectionals and earned a huge career best Beyer of 100. That figure does look a little suspicious, as he had generally been hovering around the high eighties on the Beyer scale leading into the race, but there’s no getting away from the fact that the form is rock solid. 

The race looked to have left something of a mark on him when he ran disappointingly in the 7f Forego Stakes (G1) last time, and that would be a slight concern on Saturday. However, he has since returned to Parx with a swift half mile drill in 47.82, seemingly well over his New York exertions, and this is obviously a much easier spot.

There’s a strong chance that the favorites could duel each other into the ground on the front here - especially over 6 1/2f, which could stretch some of their stamina reserves - so from gate three, TWISTED RIDE should be able to sit an ideal rail stalking trip and be ready to pounce late. I’m liking the fact that, as he now returns to his beloved Parx, he will also be reunited with jockey Andy Hernandez, with whom, he has a 5-4-1 record from 13 starts, and it’s also good to see that Michael Moore himself holds a 5-for-16 record in stakes races at Parx (31%, $2.73 ROI). With track stats and form such as TR’s, it would be a surprise if he didn’t make some sort of a run, and at the very least, he looks a must use on the ticket. 

However you play on Saturday, I wish you all the best of luck!