Horses to Follow - Saturday, September 28, 2024
By Will Humphrey
We have an incredible day of racing in store on Saturday, with coast-to-coast G1 action highlighted of course, by the inaugural California Crown meet at Santa Anita. With so many stars so on show, the wagering options are aplenty and hopefully, we’ll all be collecting at the windows. Here are a few horses to consider using in your Saturday wagers. Good luck!
Santa Anita Race 1 - OC 50k/N1X Allowance (6f, Turf): #4 PARTY ON GIRL
Trainer: Phil D’Amato
Jockey: Juan Hernandez
Morning line odds: 2/1
It’s always fun to start a card with a winner, so I was thrilled to see recent ITM eye-catcher, PARTY ON GIRL, entered for the opener at the Great Race Place on Saturday, because in my humble opinion, she should be tough to beat.
The well-bred Irish daughter of AWTAAD started her career with two wins from three starts in England, before she was privately purchased by D J Stable LLC and joined Chad Brown’s barn in 2022. Having not quite cut the Chad Brown mustard around two turns, Brittany Russell took over the training of POG in June, where straight away she was cut back to 5 1/2f and ran well in what proved to be her only start for the trainer.
Having then been sold for $75,000 at the F-Tipton July (h-i-t) Sale, POG joined Phil D’Amato’s barn, for whom, she made her Californian debut, and second sprint start over a speed favoring Del Mar turf course last time. She traveled powerfully in mid-pack that day, before making an eye-catching rally and throwing down an 11.28 second closing furlong to hit the wire in lockstep with the alway prominent winner, JUST NAILS. One more jump, and POG would have had her photo taken, but agonizingly for her supporters, the bob went against her. Nevertheless, in defeat, she beat several high-quality sprinters and ran a career best Beyer of 83, proving that sprinting really is her ball game.
Considering that POG’s last start came over a distance that appeared shorter than ideal, and it marked her first start in California, (meaning that she had an interrupted prep leading into the the race), it would be a surprise if, in start number two for D’Amato, we didn’t see further improvement as she now stretches out to six furlongs - especially as she has drawn favorably in gate four and has worked well since.
As a former Chad Brown trainee, someone clearly saw potential in this filly at one stage of her career, and over these shorter distances, she might just be realizing it now. She already has a significant advantage over her rivals on the Beyer scale but might not have reached her peak just yet and personally, I’ll be using her as a single to kick off the early sequences.
BAQ Race 11 - The Grade 2 Pilgrim Stakes (1 1/16 Miles, Turf): #8 EARLY ADOPTER
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Manny Franco
Morning line odds: 6/1
No doubt, following a game win that earned him an 80 Beyer in his American debut, ZULU KINGDOM is a worthy 8/5 favorite and likely winner of this two-year-old G2 event. If you want to take him on though, or you want to use some back ups in a race full of unexposed 2yo’s, or you just want to find some horses to use underneath, then I’d encourage you to take a second look at the ‘other Chad’, EARLY ADOPTER.
Now, the first thing I want to mention is this colt’s pedigree. Owned by Klaravich Stables Inc, EA is by two-time G1 winner/leading European sire, LOPE DE VEGA, out of the English G2 winner/G1 runner-up, SILK SARI, who herself is a half-sister to the dam of Brown’s two-time G1 winner, PROGRAM TRADING. Going further back in the pedigree, you will find that EA’s un-raced granddam, is/was a half sister to 2yo G1 winner, IBN KHALDUN, and if you go back another generation you will come across 1994 Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) winner, BARATHEA. To only name a few on the black-type runners in the family, you will struggle to find a deeper pedigree on Saturday.
Brown’s trainee didn’t earn a huge speed figure when breaking his maiden on debut at Saratoga in late August (63 Beyer) but visually, he did it nicely; traveling well in mid-pack, he gradually worked his way up through the gears before angling wide into the stretch and staying on well under a crop-less Franco to run down the longtime leader, who already had a run under their belt.
It wasn’t the flashiest or fastest of wins, but it was a professional effort and physically, I thought he looked a classy individual. I was also exited about the fact that in winning first out, he achieved something that his high-class relations failed to do, because in the last two generations of this stakes laden family, (that includes a total of 18 runners), only PROGRAM TRADING managed to break the maiden on debut, while the others tended to get better with time and experience. As PROGRAM TRADING proved, it’s often a great sign of ability when horses can overcome trends such as this, while it also suggests that there’s plenty more improvement to come from this colt.
How much of that ‘more to come’ will be seen on Saturday is unknown, but he’s seemingly worked well since his last start and on pedigree, should relish any cut in the ground following the forecast rain. Nobody knows the type of horse that excels in these spots more than Chad Brown, who clearly believes that this guy fits the mold and has a 6-for-19 record (32%, 89% ITM, $2.22 ROI) with 2yo debut winners making their second starts in a turf stakes race. Those are some encouraging statistics.
Time and again we’ve seen the ‘other Brown’ cause an upset and in a race of this nature, I don’t think EARLY ADOPTER can be entirely ruled out. Whether he’s good enough to win remains to be seen, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him take a huge jump forward and be competitive at a squarish price. I’ll be using him in both horizontal and vertical wagers.
Churchill Downs Race 4 - 2yo MSW (6f): #10 ATLAL
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Morning line odds: 4/1
We’ve already seen a couple of potential future stars make their debuts at the current Churchill Downs meet, and while it may be ambitious to suggest that any stars are going to emerge out of Saturday’s fourth, there are some attractive pedigrees on display. One of those comes via Billy Mott’s, ATLAL, who, in a race where only one horse has made a racetrack appearance, makes plenty of appeal on paper.
Owned and bred by the powerful Juddmonte operation, ATLAL is sired by four time G1 winner, QUALITY ROAD, out of an un-raced daughter of five time G1 winning champion, CLOSE HATCHES, who won her first three starts by a combined 11 1/2 lengths before going onto to become the Eclipse Award winner for Champion Older Female in 2014. If this pedigree is starting to sound familiar, that would be because CLOSE HATCHES is also the dam of three time G2 winner/five time G1 placed performer, TACITUS; three time GSW/two time G1 placed performer, SCYLLA; and G3 winner, BATTEN DOWN, who only last week recorded a 98 Beyer when destroying his rivals by over five lengths in the Bourbon Flight Stakes, here at Churchill Downs. What a family!
When dealing with first out two-year-olds, precocity in the pedigree is often just as valuable as talent, and so it’s encouraging to see that both SCYLLA and CLOSE HATCHES broke their maidens sprinting on debut, while QUALITY ROAD has an above par 14% strike rate with first out two-year-olds, having sired the likes of leading California Crown Stakes (G1) contender, NATIONAL TREASURE.
Although there’s more stamina than speed in the pedigree, ATLAL has put in some swift morning drills leading into his debut, including a 48.22 half mile work from the gate at Saratoga, August 11, as well as a recent 5/8-mile bullet gate drill, September 09. Only his July 27 workout was published on XBTV, and it may be brave to form judgment off just one workout video, but I certainly liked what I saw.
I also like, (and take it as a sign of confidence), that leading rider, Tyler Gaffalione, has been booked for the ride, as he has only previously ridden six debutants for Mott (including G1 winner PARIS LIGHTS), who himself is 2-for-5 (40%) with first out 2yo’s at Churchill over the past 18 months, boasting a healthy $8.26 ROI.
Obviously, it’s a risk betting any first-time starter, but one of them is probably going to win this race and with a favorable outside post, it could just be ATLAL. Off pedigree and connections alone, he looks a must use in the early sequences and I for one am excited to see what he can bring to the table.
Santa Anita Race 7 - The G2 John Henry Turf Championship Stakes (1 1/4 Miles, Turf): #3 DIVIN PROPOS
Trainer: Phil D’Amato
Jockey: Antionio Fresu
Morning line odds: 6/1
Santa Anita’s late Pk4 kicks off with some familiar names lining up in the eleven runner John Henry Turf Championship Stakes (G2), run over the unique 1 1/4-mile downhill turf course. Most of these guys have seemingly been around forever, knocked heads multiple times before, and taken turns beating each other without anyone raising their hoof as the leader of the pack. So, rather than trying to figure out who’s turn it is to have their day in the sun on Saturday, I’m inclined to take a shot on the new shooter to the division, DIVIN PROPOS, who will be making his American stakes debut.
Originally purchased for only €2,500 as a yearling in France, the son of GEORGE VANCOUVER exceeded expectations when trained in France by Bruno De Montzey, hitting the board in all seven of his starts for the trainer, including a third-place finish behind G2 winner/G1 runner-up, ZARAKEM, in a listed stake last September. Following the race, DP was sold for a far larger sum of €150,000 at the Arqana Arc Sale and hopped over the pond to further his career with leading turf trainer, Phil D’Amato, for whom, he’s instantly caught the eye.
Off a 275-day layoff in June, he turned away six race fit allowance horses over today’s C&D, streaking home impressively at even money to score by two lengths. A wide trip over an inadequate 1 1/8 miles saw him come up 3/4 lengths short in his second American start, but he quickly put that race in the rear-view mirror by once again running out a ready winner over 1 3/8 miles at Del Mar last time - a victory that earned him a 93 Beyer.
Interestingly, the runner-up that day was OFFLEE NAUGHTY, who has been a constant presence in races such as the John Henry for a while now and only two starts prior, had finished just a half length behind today’s 7/2 ML favorite, GOLD PHEONIX. I know it’s not apples to apples, but for comparison, DP beat OFFLEE NAUGHTY by a full length. Make of that what you please.
Even though DP doesn’t yet have the same résumé as his rivals in this spot, there’s no doubt that he was purchased with the intention of competing at this level and D’Amato clearly believes he’s now up to it. Encouragingly, Antonio Fresu seemingly does as well, as he sticks with him, despite having ridden both SEVEN WONDERS and ROCKEMPEROR in their last starts. That’s got to be a good sign.
Saturday’s 1 1/4-mile distance looks made to measure for him, and he should sit be able to sit an ideal ground saving, mid-pack/stalking trip from gate three. On the Beyer scale, he’s got a few points to make up on the ML favorites, however, his last out TUS figure is the fastest last out fig on offer here, and with the potential of more to come from him in America, it would be rash to suggest that he doesn’t fit with his group/can’t rise to the challenge. Some may worry that he’s yet to race in America without lasix, but he would never have had lasix in Europe, so that shouldn’t be a problem and quite honestly, I can’t see why he isn’t going to be very competitive here. He’s got upside over his rivals and at 6/1, he’ll certainly be on my late Pk4 ticket
Good luck with all of your Saturday wagers and make sure to check out the ITM blog for Sunday’s ‘Horses to Follow’!