Horses to Follow - Saturday, September 07, 2024
By Will Humphrey
By Will Humphrey ©
A few horses to consider using in your Saturday wagers. Good luck!
Kentucky Downs Race 8 - The Grade 3 Mint Million Stakes (One Mile): #10 ANCIENT ROME
Trainer: Charlie Hills
Jockey: Jamie Spencer
Morning line odds: 5/2
If you’re looking for a way to narrow down your $0.50 middle PK5 ticket at Kentucky Downs on Saturday, it may be worth getting skinny around ANCIENT ROME, who will be looking to win The Mint Million Stakes (G3) for the second consecutive year.
A son of leading sire WAR FRONT, Mrs Fitri Hay’s five-year-old bay is out of two-time GSW and multiple G1 placed performer, GAGNOA, making him a full-brother to Aidan O’Brien’s former black-type performer, ETOILE, who became the dam of George Weaver’s multiple stake winner, NO NAY METS. GAGNOA herself, is a half sister to Epsom Derby (G1) winner, POUR MOI.
Originally trained in France, ANCIENT ROME has shown an immense amount of talent since the very start, winning three of his first four races as a two-year-old (including a G3 score), before he was narrowly defeated in two G1 events. His form in France then seemed to plateau as a three-year-old, however, since he hopped over the British Chanel in 2023 to join Charlie Hills’ barn in England, he has found a new lease of life, posting four of his five fastest RPR ratings in only six starts for the trainer.
Following his win in the Mint Million Stakes last year and a fourth-place finish in a French G2 after that, he returned to the track from a 262-day winter break with an underwhelming performance in the 1 1/4-mile Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. With that run underneath him though, he then bounced right back to form when returned to a flat mile in the Summer Mile Stakes (G2) at Ascot, closing strongly from last to finish only 3/4 lengths behind the extremely exciting European miler, QUWAH.
We last saw Hills’ trainee when he shipped back over to America and finished third behind NATIONS PRIDE and INTEGRATION in the 1 1/4 miles Arlington Million Stakes (G1) at Colonial, beating the re-opposing TALK OF THE NATION. By not being rushed early, sitting last throughout, and attempting to run by two of the world’s best turf routers from the back of the pack, ANCIENT ROME was set a tough task by Spencer that day. Although he didn’t quite manage to complete the challenge laid out before him, he gave it a good go anyway, crossing the wire only 2 1/4 lengths behind Appleby’s superstar in an effort that earned him a 100 Beyer (the joint highest figure on offer in this race).
Although this year’s renewal of the Mint Million Stakes looks tougher than the one that he scored in last year, Hills’ trainee couldn’t be coming into this race in better form and quite simply, is just a better horse than twelve months ago. In fact, when winning this race in 2023, ANCIENT ROME was officially rated 105 in Britain and had prepped with a 33/1 upset victory in a handicap event and Goodwood. Twelve months later, and he’s coming here off the back of a third-place finish behind two of the world’s best turf routers in a G1 race, officially rated 110. What’s more, he showed last year that he has the speed to sit a stalking trip and travel comfortably in behind honest fractions, so Spencer should once again be able to position wherever he sees fit from gate ten and let the race play into his hands.
To put it plainly, ANCIENT ROME has been listed as the morning line favorite because there really aren’t many holes to poke in him. Even at 5/2 though, he could be a decent bet.
Colonial Race 9 - The Virginia Oaks (1 1/8 miles): #4 ONCOURTCOMMENTATOR
Trainer: Brittany Russell
Jockey: Sheldon Russell
Morning line odds: 6/1
Thirteen three-year-old fillies have been entered for this year’s renewal of the Virginia Oaks, where ONCOURTCOMMENTATOR can confirm herself to be a stakes quality filly and go close at a square price.
Owned and bred by The Elkstone Group LLC, the three-year-old bay filly is sired by leading stallion, UNCLE MO, out of two-time stakes winning turf router, CURLIN’S FOX, who’s own dam (ONCOURTCOMMENTATOR’s second dam) was five-time GSW and G1 placed turf router, HONEYFOX.
Brittany Russell’s trainee made an impressive start to her career in a 1 1/16-mile MSW event at Laurel, June 28, where she overcame a wide trip and relatively moderate early pace to blast home from the rear in scintillating style, scoring by 2 1/2 lengths under Saturday’s rider, Sheldon Russell. ‘Russell the Muscle’, as he is commonly known in Laurel, was was then quoted after the race as saying that “she needs to relax in the morning, but was much better at racing pace and will win stakes races for sure”.
Following such an eye-opening debut, ONCOURTCOMMENTATOR was hammered down to odds of 3/2 for her second start - a one-mile MD bred restricted allowance, again at Laurel. On the face of it, an odds-on defeat with a regressed Beyer speed figure doesn’t look great, however, she drew the inside post that day and fell back to be racing almost 16 lengths off the lead down the back stretch. She valiantly tried to close down the margin and with one more jump would have gotten the job done, but agonizingly fell a nostril short.
When we last saw the daughter of UNCLE MO, she stretched out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time in an off-turf NX1 allowance. Once again burdened with the inside post, she broke much shaper and showed far greater early speed, comfortably settling only six lengths behind solid fractions of 23.99 and 47.85. With more than a half mile left to run, ONCOURTCOMMENTATOR made a huge mid race move, loomed up alongside the leaders three wide around the bend, and then took off like a fresh horse in the stretch to hit the wire a full 6 1/4 lengths in front with a Beyer of 79. Considering that there is nothing about her physical build/stride, nor anything on the dam’s side of the pedigree to suggest that she wants to run on the dirt, it really was quite the performance.
It goes without saying that Saturday will mark ONCOURTCOMMENTATOR’s biggest test to date by far, however, she fits with this group on speed figures and with so many lucrative MD sired/bred restricted stakes upcoming at Laurel (which she is eligible for), it could be taken as a sign of confidence that Russell is opting for the bigger pot. Despite the fact that she was beating up on lesser competition last time, she appeared to have taken a vast step forward when she tried today’s 1 1/8 mile distance for the first time and as she now returns to her preferred surface in career start number four, it would be somewhat disappointing if we didn’t see further improvement on Saturday.
If her three prior races are anything to go by, ONCOURTCOMMENTATOR is going to be finishing stronger than anyone else in this race and with a whole slew of speed horses entered, she should get an ideal pace setup. It’s also encouraging to see that Brittany Russell has been hitting at 22% at Colonial this meet (10-for-45, 58% ITM, $2.05 ROI) and 22% when teaming up with her husband in stake races (27-for-122, 60% ITM, $1.55 ROI).
Everything looks in place for ONCOURTCOMMENTATOR to put up a bold showing on Saturday, and it’s by no means inconceivable that she can jump up to go very close. At a respectable price, this lightly raced filly is certainly worth a second look.
Colonial Race 10 - The G3 New Kent County Virginia Derby (1 1/8 miles): #12 ZVEREV
Trainer: Cherie DeVaux
Jockey: Jorge Ruiz
Morning line odds: 10/1
DETERMINISTIC, the $625,000 Gotham Stakes (G3) winner and one time Kentucky Derby hopeful heads the morning line for Saturday’s G3 Virginia Derby at Colonial following a game third place finish in the Saratoga Derby Invitational Stakes (G1) last time. Christophe Clement’s runner certainly warrants plenty of respect, however, there’s a strong chance that he’s going to be over-bet with Manny Franco in for the ride, and at the prices, ZVEREV looks a better bet.
A $330,000 3yo son of OSCAR PERFORMANCE, ZVEREV has a pretty spectacular pedigree, as he is the eighth foal out of three-time G1 winner BALANCE, who is a half-sister to none other than the Queen herself, ZENYATTA.
Cherie DeVaux’s trainee showed vast improvement when blinkers were put on for his three-year-old debut at the Fair Grounds earlier in the year, and in March, he finally broke his maiden in impressive style at Turfway. Having then suffered a horrendous trip at Churchill Downs next time (a race that can be tossed owing to the troubled stretch run), ZVEREV was ridden much closer to the pace two starts back, where he powerfully stalked a moderate pace set by Brad Cox’s future Saranac Stakes (G3) winner, WEST HOLLYWOOD. ZVEREV drew level with that foe as they turned into the stretch, battled gamely to the 1/8 pole, and then exploded away from the field inside the final 1/16, hitting the line 2 1/2 lengths in front before galloping out well into the back stretch, looking every part a stakes horse in the making and earning a Beyer of 87.
Such was the dominance with which ZVEREV won that day at Churchill Downs, he was bet right down to odds of 4/1 when we last saw him in the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes (G2) at Saratoga. Now, on the face of it, a non-threatening 6th place finish isn’t overly inspiring, however, ZVEREV took an awkward step leaving the gate in that race, almost like a mini stumble, which resulted in him receiving two hard bumps from his neighboring rivals within the first eight strides of the race, immediately putting him on the back foot. He found himself trailing in last down the back stretch and although he traveled extremely well throughout, his rider just couldn’t get him a clean run until it was all too late, and the field had already gotten the jump on him. He did manage to make up more ground than any other horse in the stretch, but the race had been lost at the break and he simply couldn’t close fast enough. Once again, a line can be put through the race.
Considering his pedigree and the utter dominance with which he destroyed WEST HOLLYWOOD two back (the fastest turf Beyer on offer in this race), the potential and ability is there form him to compete at this level, and Cherie DeVaux clearly believes that to be the case. He’s recently returned to the work-tab with a couple of nice-looking maintenance drills, so appears to be coming into this race fresh and with plenty of speed signed on, he should get an ideal pace set-up. The wide post position could be a cause for concern, however, on the inner turf track at Colonial, the field has almost the entire length of the stretch to get themselves situated before they hit the first bend, providing ample opportunity for Ruiz to work ZVEREV over into a favorable position and not get stuck too wide.
If you scratch out the two races where things didn’t in any way go right for ZVEREV, his Beyer pattern this year reads 71, 83, 87, which is not too dissimilar from DETERMINISTIC’s pattern of 81, 85, 86. It’s unlikely that we’ve seen the best of this extremely well-bred individual though, and provided that he gets a clean trip on Saturday, it would be no surprise to see him improve again as he stretches out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time. In a wide-open race, he could be worth chancing at around 10/1.
Del Mar Race 5 - The Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf Stakes (One Mile): #7 SUPA SPEED
Trainer: John Saddler
Jockey: Juan Hernandez
Morning line odds: 6/1
Following a tremendously impressive maiden breaking win last time, former ITM ‘Eye-Catcher’ THOUGHT PROCESS has been listed as a short priced 9/5 favorite for the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf Stakes on Saturday. It really is hard to see past D’Amato’s trainee in this spot, however, if you’re looking for horses to use in horizontal wagers, or simply don’t want to single the skinny chalk in a race full of lightly raced two-year-olds, it could pay to include SUPA SPEED on your tickets.
Purchased for $460,000 as a yearling, SUPA SPEED is by Triple Crown winner JUSTIFY (who hits at 14% with turf routers; 11% all sire average), out of a former Aidan O’Brien trained turf router ELFIN QUEEN. ELFIN QUEEN herself, is a half-sister to four individual black type performers, including the former Bob Baffert trained stake winner INDIANAPOLIS, two-time G3 winner HEART ASHLEY, G3 winner ASHLEY’S KITTY, and multiple GSW CUPID, who took the 1 1/4 miles Santa Anita Gold Cup (G1) in 2017.
With a strong work-tab and set of connections to compliment her pedigree, SUPA SPEED was sent to post as the 3/1 second choice for her 5f debut here at Del Mar, August 01, where she broke alertly from gate six and comfortably stalked the more experienced lone pace setter/eventual runner-up, SOPHISTRY. As they straightened for the drive, Edwin Maldonado briefly looked as if he had stolen the race on SOPHISTRY, however, looming in behind him was SUPA SPEED, who rounded the home bend in the two path before gradually going through the gears to draw up and alongside the leader in the stretch. As they passed the shoot SUPA SPEED’s rider needed to do no more than confidently hand ride her and allow her to draw away from the field to score by a very comfortable 1 1/2 lengths. SUPA SPEED stopped the clock in 57.90 for 5f, earned a 75 Beyer and galloped out nicely, too. For a first out two-year-old, this was a classy performance.
SUPA SPEED’s debut clearly impressed Saddler, as he has now thrown her straight into a stake race for only her second lifetime start - a move that he has only made eleven times in the last five years. The one mile distance on Saturday is obviously a question mark, however, her pedigree definitely supports the move and it’s encouraging to note that Saddler has a healthy record of 4-for-16 (25%, 63% ITM) with horse making their route debut in stakes races. At the end of the day, she wouldn’t be in this spot if connections didn’t think that she would see out the distance.
Following her debut performance, SUPA SPEED has put in a couple of steady maintenance drills and looks to be coming into his race fresh and ready to fire. Leading rider Juan Hernandez (13-for-39 in stakes with Saddler, 33%) takes the ride and from gate seven, he should be able to work his way into favorable forward position on SUPA SPEED, providing her with no excuses. Her debut Beyer of 75 is already the second fastest on offer in this race (behind THOUGHT PROCESS’ 81) and with a degree of natural progression expected in start number two, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her go close at a respectable price.