Horses to Follow - Saturday, October 05, 2024
By Will Humphrey
Strap yourself in because today’s action is going to come thick and fast. We have seventeen graded stakes including six G1’s on tap; star names are out to play, the wagering options are aplenty and hopefully, we’ll all be collecting at the windows. Here are a few horses to consider using in your Saturday wagers. Good luck!
BAQ Race 5 - The Grade 3 Jockey Club Derby Invitational Stakes (1 3/8 Miles, Turf): #6 EL REZEEN
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz
Morning line odds: 7/2
A small but select field of seven have been entered for this $500,000 marathon turf event for three-year-olds, where LEGEND OF TIME, CARSON’S RUN and DETERMINISTIC will duel once again, having filled the top three spots in the Saratoga Derby (G1). All are legitimate win contenders and clearly demand respect, but this isn’t a three-horse race by any means. Enter: EL REZEEN.
A Shadwell Stable owned and bred son of ENGLISH CHANNEL, EL REZEEN carries some of the strongest bloodlines that you will find, tracing back to multiple G1 winning champions/sires of sires, NAYEF and NASHWAN, who produced the likes of four-time G1 winner/Kentucky Derby show finisher, SWAIN.
A deep pedigree it is, but a precocious one it is not, and so it wasn’t much of a surprise that this guy took five attempts to break his maiden, finally getting the job done when fitted with blinkers and trying 1 1/2 miles for the first time at Saratoga in July. He’d certainly flashed ability before in the past, but aided by the new equipment, he could have been called the winner at the 3/8 pole that day, as he traveled with infinite ease, quickened up smartly along the rail and strode out enthusiastically in the stretch, holding off all of the closers to score by a half length.
Following that performance, Pletcher asked him to prove just how good he was by pitching him in against older horses in what his first start against winners - often a horse's toughest test. The answer, very good. Cut back a furlong in trip to today’s 1 3/8 miles distance, he again sat sweetly in his rider’s hands, remained under a firm hold as his rivals began to come under pressure, tipped out into the four-path entering the stretch, and then took off like he’d just jumped in at the quarter pole. Within a matter of strides, he’d put daylight between himself and his rivals, purposefully streaking through the wire by a clear 3 3/4 lengths before galloping out well in advance of his rivals, looking as if he could have gone around again. For the effort, he was awarded a Beyer of 92 - the highest turf figure in Saturday’s race.
The rate at which this horse has been progressing lately has been incredible, and with a pedigree and connections such as his, who’s to say that he’s finished improving just yet. After all, we have no idea how much he’d have found if challenged in the stretch last time. Now trying his hand against stakes company for the first time, this race looks the ideal spot for him as we know that the distance hits him square between the eyes, the Timeform race rating scale indicates that this field is only a touch more competitive than the group of elders that he destroyed last time, and he arrives here with the highest turf Beyer. Furthermore, he has the ability to sit where he pleases according to the pace from gate six under Irad, who has a 9-for 27 (33%) record in three-year-old only graded stakes on turf with Pletcher.
Following some super works since his last outing, there’s every chance that he leaves them for dust once again and regardless of the class hike, he looks a dangerous contender to rule out.
Keeneland Race 6 - The Grade 2 Woodford Stakes (5 1/2f, Turf): #6 NOBALS
Trainer: Larry Rivelli
Jockey: Gerardo Corrales
Morning line odds: 9/2
If you asked Siri to define perplexing, it would probably show you the PPs for this race. Twelve runners (plus three also-eligible entires) are set to line up for this 5 1/2f G2 turf sprint and a justifiable case could be made for any one of them - I’ll make mine for NOBALS.
We already know plenty about last year’s Breeders Cup Turf Sprint (G1) winner; he’s a five-year-old son of NOBLE MISSION, a winner of 10 races, 8 stakes, 2 graded stakes, and he’s made no less than $1.55m in earnings. To put it plainly, he’s a tidy little horse.
On the face of it, one could justifiably argue that having won on the biggest stage at Santa Anita last year, he’s been a little disappointing in 2024, although I beg to differ. Personally, I thought he ran a fine race when he returned to the track with a fourth-place finish in an allowance at Saratoga in late July, as he was giving away race fitness all round and got stuck three wide when dueling for the lead early. Understandably, his fitness looked to catch him out late on but nevertheless, he stuck on gamely to the wire to be beaten just 3/4 lengths by the re-opposing SOUPER QUEST and OUR SHOT. I was also impressed with his effort over at C&D that doesn’t see him to best effect in the Turf Sprint Stakes (G2) at Kentucky Downs last time out, as he did best of the forwardly placed horses who tried to run with the monstrous gate-to wire winner, COGBURN (who recorded a 107 Beyer). NOBALS held off all the closers bar two, who managed to edge their way past him late on but again, there was no disgrace in defeat.
Now with those two runs underneath him and a return to more favorable race conditions, this looks the time to catch COGBURN at an inflated price. I mean, isn’t his third start off the bench always his best? Well, let’s take a look back at his speed figures in 2022: in his first two starts that year, he recorded Beyer speed figures of 76 and 77, and then in his third start of the form cycle, he ran a 92 - the best figure he ran that year. Moving onto 2023… he started the year off by running Beyer speed figures of 92 and 82, and then in his third start of the form cycle, at odds of 38/1, he jumped up to record a 102 Beyer by winning the Turf Sprint Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs - his joint highest lifetime figure. He seems to be a horse who rounds himself into form with racing and comes alive in his third start of the form cycle, and so, having recorded Beyer speed figures of 93 and 96 in his two starts this year, isn’t he sitting on effort good enough to win this race? The answer is that he very well could be. And if you’re not convinced by now, consider the fact that over the last five years, Rivelli has gone 6-for-9 (67%) with horses making their third start back from 200+ day layoffs in turf sprint stakes (78% ITM, $10.60 ROI), compared to 0-for-6 in with horses making their second starts back.
Whether you buy into the theory or not, at the end of the day, we’re getting almost 5/1 about last year’s Breeder’s Cup Turf Sprint winner, who arrives here in good form, looks no worse this year than last (some may say better at this stage of the form cycle), has landed an ideal draw in gate six, and should sit a beautiful forward trip. He appears to be sitting on a huge performance that his rivals might not be able to match and at the prices, you’d be braver than me to leave him off the ticket.
Keeneland Race 9 - The Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders' Futurity (1 1/16 Miles, Turf): #4 HANDSOME PANTS
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr
Morning line odds: 10/1
No doubt, EAST AVENUE and FEROCIOUS look the two to beat in this spot and at skinny prices, they’re the two logical horses to side with. However, in a race full of unexposed juveniles, it’s worthwhile hunting for some value to either beat the favorites with or use underneath and therefore, I’d encourage you to take a second look at the M 5 Racing Stable owned son of DAREDEVIL, HANDSOME PANTS.
Going out for the KY Derby and Oaks winning team of Kenny McPeek and Brian Hernandez, Jr, this guy couldn’t have been much more impressive at Churchill on debut, getting the better of a 3/5 favorite who had been beaten only a neck by AUTHENTIC STRIKE last time. HP showed enthusiasm from the start, took kickback well in mid division, glided his way through the pack under a firm hold rounding into the stretch, and then then quickened nicely to draw off and score by a comfortable 1 1/4 lengths. He galloped out extremely well having stopped the clock in 1:45.11 for the 1 1/16 miles test and earned a Beyer of 81 - a figure that theoretically would have seen him finish third in the Iroquois Stakes run thirty minutes earlier.
It’s always impressive when debutants can turn away an entire field of horses who already had prior racing experience, especially when the trainer is not renowned for having their horses ready to fire first time out. When you look back at McPeek’s record with first out two-year-olds over the last three years, you will find that prior to September 2024, he was only 12-for-183 (7%). Of those twelve winners, nine of them went onto hit the board in stakes races, seven became GSP performers, five became stake winners, and two became GSW’s, highlighted, of course, by THORPEDO ANNA. That’s good company for HP to be keeping and as a $140,000 son of DAREDEVIL with a black-type pedigree such as his, there looks to be no reason why, having been so visually impressive on debut, he can’t add to his trainer’s statistics.
He returned to the work-tab with a tremendous 48.60 half mile move on September 14, where he easily covered the ground with the minimum of fuss while remaining under a firm hold and looking every part a stakes horse in the making. McPeek clearly thinks that he’s up to this standard, and he’s usually fairly sharp on these things, which is proven by the fact that over the last five years, he’s started just sixteen first out winners in a stakes race next time, producing five wins (31%), eight ITM finishes (63%), and generating an ROI of $3.34.
On speed figures, HP has a few points to make up on the top three market leaders, however, he has an asset that they don’t - a start around two turns - the value of which shouldn’t be underestimated in these types of races. Furthermore, he could get an ideal pace set-up in here, with EAST AVENUE and FEROCIOUS both likely to ensure a strong early tempo while being hustled by a number of other speedy types. I expect Hernandez, Jr, will look to ride a similar race as he did last time, saving ground off the pace towards the inside before becoming a threat late on and off the back of his debut, it seems dangerous to believe that he doesn’t have a chance running into the money. To my eye, he looks must use in vertical wagers and I wouldn’t be shocked if he were to cause an upset.
Santa Anita Race 6 - 3yo+ F&M MSW (One Mile, Turf): #10 MIZZYAAN
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Morning line odds: 5/2
Santa Anita’s $0.50 late Pk5 kicks off with a competitive one-mile MSW on the turf, where recent ITM eye-catcher, MIZZYAAN, looks to have a superb chance of finding the winner’s circle.
Having started her career with two promising runner-up efforts in Dubai, including in the UAE Oaks (G3), expectations were high for this filly when owner/breeder Sheikh Mohammed Bin Khalifa Al Maktoum moved her across the world to join Michael McCarthy’s barn in the spring. I mean, after only two starts she’d become a GSP daughter of JUSTIFY, and she’s out of three-time G1 winner VALE DORI - she’s got to be a future star, right?
Well, bettors had reason to doubt that after her American debut in August, as she broke slowly from the rail, resisted the kickback (which she never truly experienced in Dubai) and dropped herself out to be over ten lengths off the lead early. She briefly looked to be making some sort of mid race move but then flattened out to finish a well beaten fifth with a Beyer of 59 - not exactly superstar material. In some ways, a mulligan could have given for the effort, as it was her first start off the bench, first start in America, she broke from the rail, and so on. However, connections decided to pull stumps on the dirt campaign after that and moved her to the turf for the first time, September 07.
As is now becoming a common theme in her races, she once again lacked early speed and fell back to be thirteen lengths off the leaders early on but without any kickback, she was far more enthusiastic in rear and proceeded to make a steady advance down the back stretch. Gradually working her way through the strung-out field, she angled out seven wide into the stretch and opened her stride to finish strongly into second, advancing an impressive 8 3/4 lengths on the always prominent winner in the lane and jumping her Beyer up 13 points to 72. It was a far more encouraging effort from the filly, who appeared to be much more comfortable on the grass and strode out late as if it is what she has been longing for all along, lowering herself and extending her stride powerfully.
Considering that race marked only her fifth lifetime start, second in America, and first on the turf, you’d hope that, with the run behind her, another step forward is going to be taken on Saturday, especially as she faces a seemingly softer group of rivals. Any improvement (or even a repeat) of her last effort could make her tough to beat, as her 72 Beyer is only one point below SHE’S THE LAW’S race top figure of 73, and five of the horses MIZZYAAN beat last time make up the field of eleven. It’s encouraging to see that Umberto Rispoli sticks aboard for the ride, as she looks to be a filly who needs some knowing, and worth highlighting that with McCarthy, he hits at 26% in turf routes ($2.03 ROI).
Sheikh Mohammed Bin Khalifa Al Maktoum presumably went to the trouble of shipping this lightly raced GSP filly across the world in order to embark on an American campaign that included some prestigious prizes. Whether or not she’s going to reach a substantial level remains to be seen, but it does seem that we’re yet seen the best of MIZZYAAN and hopefully, she can deliver the goods here.
I hope that everyone has a successful and enjoyable day of wagering on Saturday. Good Luck!