Horses to Follow - Saturday, November 16, 2024
By Will Humphrey
Horses to Follow - Saturday, November 16, 2024.
By Will Humphrey
Although we’re a little light on the stakes front today, we’re certainly not light on great wagering opportunities. Here are a few horses to consider using in your Saturday wagers. Good luck!
Churchill Downs, Race 3 - 2yo MSW (6f): #3 CAMP HALE
Trainer: Ian Wilkes
Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr
Morning line odds: 3/1
So much for writing about horses to follow - the third at Churchill today looks more of a race to follow. Some of the pedigrees and purchase prices in this oversubscribed MSW would make any racing enthusiast’s eyes light up, and when you then see that old Bobby B has a $650k purchase with five straight bullets in on the AE list as well, one gets the feeling that this contest could work out okay. A case could be made for just about every runner, however, few debutants have impressed me more in defeat this year than CAMP HALE and I have a feeling that the opposition are going to have a tough time stopping Ian Wilkes’ charge second out.
A Whitham Thoroughbreds LLC homebred son of MO TOWN, CAMP HALE hails (see what is did there!) from a long line of stakes winners that includes his incredible grandam, AFFLUENT, who won two G1 races sprinting on the dirt and two more going nine panels on the turf. Check this out for a set of PP’s!
With such a strong pedigree and some impressive looking workouts behind the gelding leading into his debut, (such as this 5/8 drill on 10/04), it was somewhat surprising to see him sent off at odds of 18/1 at Keeneland last month but as the old saying goes, ‘horses don’t know their odds’. He ran a super race; breaking like a rocket from gate twelve and quickly engaging in a speed duel with the 4/5 favorite PATCH ADAMS, CH nosed his way in front of that rival at the top of the stretch, briefly looking as if the race was his for the taking, only to be inhaled late by a fast-finishing Brendan Walsh trained debutant. CH eventually settled for a 3/4 length defeat in second but lost nothing in defeat and was fairly rewarded with a very creditable 84 Beyer/109 TUS figure – 4 points faster than the winner.
Okay, so the track was playing kindly towards speed that day at Keeneland, but having caught the eye visually, I can’t help but think that, with a pedigree and set of morning drills as strong as his, CH isn’t just a really smart horse regardless of whether the track helped him that day. And with the run now under his belt, providing him with an experience and fitness edge over half of his rivals on Saturday, I see no reason why he can’t step forward to shake off the maiden tag.
He returned to the work-tab with a sparkling 5/8 mile drill in 58.80 on November 02, so has clearly exited the race well; he’ll be benefited by the fact that he gets to run out of his own stall for the first time; he’s proven that he has the speed to establish a prominent position and has already demonstrated a gritty attitude to see him fight off the closers; and he also has a speed figure that towers above his rivals’. Furthermore, it’s worth bearing in mind that, in MSW races on the dirt, Wilkes hits at 22% with second out two-year-olds who hit the board on debut - a far cry from the off putting 3% rate at which he strikes when debuting juveniles. To put it plainly, CH has an awful lot going for him here and I for one am excited to see what he can produce. Regardless of whether you get involved in this race though, it could be one to watch with a view to the future.
Aqueduct, Race 9 - The Central Park S. (One Mile, Turf): #11 ROCK D’ORO (AE)
Trainer: Ralph Beckett
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Morning line odds: 5/1
I hope that I’m not wasting ink by fleshing out the chances of ROCK D’ORO in this year’s Central Park S., but if this also-eligible entry does draw in, he’ll deserve the upmost respect.
Having campaigned STARLUST to cause the upset two weeks ago in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1), multiple G1 winning trainer Ralph Beckett (who recently finished 5th in the British Trainers’ Championship) will be seeking more American glory with this €130,000 Amo Racing USA owned son BOLT D’ORO, who may still be a maiden but certainly doesn’t lack talent.
His debut came over seven furlongs on the all-weather track at Chelmsford (Eng), where he was sent off as the 5/1 second choice in a field of ten and very nearly caused a minor upset, having forged into a slim lead at the 3/16 pole. He was eventually worn back down by the long time leading 4/9 favorite BAY CITY ROLLER and had to settle for a 3/4 length defeat in second in what was an eye-catching debut. When the winner then came straight back to win a prestigious G2 next out, beating horses whose form ties in with the 1-3 finishers from the BC Juvenile Turf, HENRI MATISSE and AOMORI CITY, it became clear that there was certainly no disgrace defeat - especially as the winner carried an experience and fitness edge.
Following such a promising start to his career, the betting public decided that Beckett’s charge couldn’t lose his second start - again over seven furlongs, but this time on a right-handed turf course at Sandown - and sent him to post at odds of 8/13. Fingers were then burnt when he had to settle for second again, although that’s not to say that he ran poorly - he was just never going to stop the emphatic debuting winner COSMIC YEAR, who carries the most impeccable Juddmonte blood lines and instantly earned quotes of 20/1 for the first Classic of the 2025 British flat season following the race. Post race, COSMIC YEAR’s connections revealed that they were toying with the idea of debuting the colt in a stake and so once again, it would appear that ROCK D’ORO just bumped into a buzzsaw.
If like me you are of the opinion that top-level European turf form is stronger than it is in America, then it wouldn’t be unrealistic to argue that, having already knocked heads with two of Britain’s most exciting juveniles going into 2025, this is actually going to be his easiest task to date and that he has the strongest form in Saturday’s race. He’s run well around a tight, flat, left-handed oval at Chelmsford, so should have no issue handling the track on Saturday and he’s bred for this type of racing too, with deep American bloodlines that trace back to MGSWs/G1 placed performers, SUN KING and OCEAN DRIVE. Having performed creditably over a stiff seven furlongs at Sandown, this new one mile test on a firm, flat, turning track should pose no issue to him and from the outside gate, he should also be able to just slot over and settle where he pleases, taking advantage of what is likely going to be a fast pace. Against this group, which only contains two stakes placed performers, I wouldn’t be hugely surprised to see him then out kick them all late on, extending Beckett’s recent good fortune in the States.
Churchill Downs, Race 10 - The Claiming Crown Jewel (1 1/8 Miles): #3 MONEY SUPPLY
Trainer: Joe Sharp
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Morning line odds: 2/1
If you’re someone who enjoys a challenge, you’ll love picking your way through the Claiming Crown races at Churchill today - it’s the Breeders’ Cup for claiming horses. The ‘Jewel’ goes as race ten, where $200,000 will be on the line for horses who have started for a claiming price of $35,000 or less in 2023-24. Joe Sharp’s likable gelded son of PRACTICAL JOKE, MONEY SUPPLY, won the race last year and twelve months later, appears to have every chance of going in again.
A $400k yearling purchase who failed to cut the mustard for Chad Brown, MONEY SUPPLY thrived after he was claimed by Sharp for $35k at Saratoga last August, producing form figures of 2,1,1,1,1,1 in his first six starts for the trainer. Within those form-lines not only included a win in last year’s renewal of this race when it was held over a sloppy track at the Fair Grounds, but also a 9/1 upset victory in the Mineshaft S. (G3). He then went onto finish a game third in the New Orleans Classic S. (G2) and sixth in the Alysheba S. (G2), before registering his second stakes win when trying turf for the first time at Horseshoe Indy.
Now, on paper, it would appear that he has recently lost his form, having failed to beat a horse home in his two most recent efforts while being beaten a combined distance of 30 3/4 lengths, and that obviously creates a degree of risk when betting him on Saturday, especially at a short price. The thing is though, both of those efforts can be easily excused.
Two back, he was already facing a tough task when trying G1 company over an inadequate distance on the turf at Saratoga, and he then did himself no favors by rearing at the break and spotting the leaders ten lengths after just 100yds. He’d have needed wings to beat that field from where he found himself early on. Then, in his last start at Kentucky Downs… well, enough said. Plenty of horses don’t handle that quirky track and he was one of them.
If like me you’re willing to toss both of those races, it seems more than likely that, as he now returns to his preferred surface and distance (3-for-3 ITM over 1 1/8 miles), he can return to producing a Beyer speed figure in the region of 94.25 - the average for his last four starts on dirt. That should give him every chance of scoring on Saturday, considering he won last year’s renewal with an 85 Beyer.
He’s been freshened up since his last start, appears to have worked well since and should get a strong pace to close into under leading rider Tyler Gaffalione, as a number of these are likely to gun for position into the first bend, cutting each other’s throats on the lead. His career earnings are already double that of the second most accomplished runner in this field, his overall body of work towers above his competitors, and when you then factor in that Sharp and Gaffalione have been hitting at 32% in dirt routes at Churchill this year (7-for-17; $2.56 ROI), he looks a justifiable ML favorite who can further add to his bankroll.
Churchill Downs, Race 11 - The Claiming Crown Emerald (1 1/16 Miles, Turf): #3 TIDAL FORCES
Trainer: Fernando Abreu
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Morning line odds: 15/1
In the hope and assumption that MONEY SUPPLY has already waltzed in in the Claiming Crown Jewel, I’ll be looking at towards TIDAL FORCES to spice up the late DD in a wide open renewal of the ‘Emerald’ - a $175,000 starter allowance for horses who have started for a claiming price of $25,000 or less in 2023-24.
A six-year-old gelded son of MALIBU MOON, TIDAL FORCES hails from one of the strongest Canadian bred families you will find and over the last few years, has developed into a tidy little horse himself. Having been beaten only 5 3/4 lengths in the 2021 Queen’s Plate, he’s since chopped and changed trainers a handful of times, taking his show on the road all over North America in a career that’s seen him earn $239k through a record of 6-2-3 from 24 starts.
Now, they say that you can’t teach an old dog new tricks, however, it appears that Fernando Arbreu has done just that with TF since he claimed him just $10k back in January. In eight starts for the trainer, he’s recorded three 90+ Beyer speed figures (93, 93, 92), despite having never run faster than an 86 in his sixteen prior starts, and in his five turf routes for the trainer, he’s run a 116+ TUS figure every time - incredible considering that his prior career best was a 111 earned at Santa Anita back in 2022.
The form stacks up well too. Back in March, he beat a number of bonafide stakes winners when missing by just a neck to G3 winner SMOKIN’ T in the Appleton S. at Gulfstream and then four back, he split TAKING CANDY and IRISH ACES when finishing second in an allowance at Saratoga - two runners who returned to finish second and first, respectively, in two separate stakes races, both earning 94 Beyers.
When you assess the overall 2024 form of all the runners in this race, TF just looks wildly overpriced at 15/1, especially as his last run in a hot allowance at BAQ proved that he’s still in good form, as he closed strongly into a criminally slow pace to finish a solid fourth. Now that we’re not in New York and we have horses such as DEVIL’S HARVEST in the line up, he should get a much stronger pace to close into and from gate three, he’s also going to be saving ground while avoiding any early scrimmaging for position heading into the first bend, which is always a concern for mid-pack/forwardly placed runners draw middle to wide.
Whether or not he’ll be able to get the better of the ML favorites is yet to be determined. However, according to TUS, this is the softest group of rivals he’s faced in a turf route since September last year; he brings the second fastest last out TUS speed figure into this race, has some of the strongest recent form on offer, and to my eye at least, fits far better with this field than his ML odds would suggest. Both his jockey and trainer have been amongst the winners lately and if we get anything near his ML price, I recon he’ll be providing tremendous value, especially for use in any vertical wagers.
Good luck to everyone having a wager on Saturday!