Horses to Follow - Saturday, November 23, 2024
By Will Humphrey
Another action-packed Saturday is upon us - let’s go! Here are a few horses to consider using in your wagers today. Good luck!
Gulfstream, Race 7 - 2yo MSW (1M 70Y, Synthetic): #3 WE SEA YOU
Trainer: Jack Sisterson
Jockey: Edwin Gonzalez
Morning line odds: 9/2
An oversubscribed field has been entered for the first leg off the late PK5 at Gulfstream on Saturday, where two-year-old maidens will go two turns on the synthetic. With all due respect to connections, this doesn’t look an overly strong maiden and there doesn’t appear to be a whole lot of speed either. Therefore, I’m inclined to take a shot on Jack Sisterson’s new acquisition, WE SEA YOU, who will be making her American debut.
A €150k purchase at the Goff’s November Foals Sale, this daughter of SEA THE STARS possesses some fascinating bloodlines. Her dam, RAPID REACTION, was a talented turf sprinter in Ireland and also, a half sister to multiple listed stake winner KATLA. Both of them were out of the DR FONG mare, BRATISLAVA who herself was a half sister to none other than the unbeaten Champion 2yo of 2010 and now leading stallion, WOOTON BASSETT - currently standing for €300k at Coolmore, he has sired both of the last two Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winners, UNQUESTIONABLE and HENRI MATISSE.
So, her grandam is a half to WOOTTON BASSETT, but what has Sisterson’s new acquisition done so far in her own career? Well, two starts in England have resulted in third and second placed finishes - neither of which are results to be sniffed at.
Her debut came in a six-runner affair over seven furlongs on the straight course at Newbury; she broke well from gate four, traveled nicely in mid-pack, responded well to her rider’s urging, and stayed on well to finish a clear third behind FLAMING STONE - not a bad effort considering the winner, who already had prior racing experience, went onto place third in a stake next out, before finishing only 3 1/4 lengths behind BC Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) winner LAKE VICTORIA, in the Sweet Solera S. (G3) at Newmarket. Meanwhile, the runner-up from that maiden, FLIGHT, easily won her next start before finishing third in back-to-back group races. It was a hot maiden to say the least.
Then in her second start, WE SEA YOU stretched out to one mile on the synthetic at Kempton. She broke well again and set the pace that day before showing a determined attitude to finish second behind the impressive winner ALLA STELLA, who two starts later finished third in a G3, only a short head behind BC Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) fourth place finisher, FIERY LUCY.
So, the pedigree is deep, and the form is rock solid - question is, can WSY transfer her ability to America? Well, her workout on October 27 wouldn’t have filled you with confidence, as she looked labored going a half mile on the turf at Palm Meadows. However, Sisterson then fitted her with blinkers in the mornings and they seem to have spruced her up significantly. If you have an XBTV account, here’s her recent 47.70 half mile from the gate.
Following that solid gate drill, I see no reason why this filly, who brings the strongest form into the race, can’t step forward with the addition of blinkers to break her duck here. She’s proven on an all-weather surface, has been given time to get comfortable around the tight natured American tracks, she possesses the required early speed to adopt a forward position, and quite simply, she’s proven that she’s talented enough to beat this group. Furthermore, (and you know how much I love my stats), Jack Sisterson hits at 21% with foreign shippers fresh off the plane and with Edwin Gonzalez, he is 4-for-6 in maiden races ($4.03 ROI). That’s music to my ears and at around 9/2, I’ll be taking a shot on this fascinating contender.
Fair Grounds, Race 4 - 2yo MSW (5 1/2f, Turf): #9 ELITE HEAT
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza, Jr
Morning line odds: 9/2
Sticking with the European two-year-old filly theme, Brad Cox has an interesting debutant lining up in the fourth at the Fair Grounds today - a MSW sprinting 5 1/2f on the turf.
ELITE HEAT was an 80,000 GNS yearling purchase from Tattersalls Book 1 Sale who was re-sold for €210,000 to My Racehorse at the Arqana Summer Mixed Sale this April. Following the purchase, the daughter of TOO DARN HOT shipped over to America and joined Cox’s barn at Turfway, where she’s recently thrown down twelve evenly spaced workouts.
None of those breezes have yielded any spectacularly fast times and without any workout videos from Turfway, it’s hard to know exactly what we’re dealing with. However, I’d be wary of leaving this filly out of any multi-race wagers simply due to the strength of her pedigree.
You see, her multiple G1 winning sire TOO DARN HOT, who was the Champion European 2yo in 2018, is indeed proving to be too darn hot when it comes to siring two-year-olds. From only two crops, he’s produced two individual G1 winning juveniles and two further G1 runners-up, while striking at an overall 17% clip with all his juvenile starters (40% winners/runners). He’s a fast sire to say the least.
Then, when you take a look at the dam side of ELITE HEAT’s pedigree, you will discover that her half sister broke her maiden second out before becoming stake placed in start number three; her dam broke her maiden on debut before holding her own in three straight 2yo stake races; her dam’s half-sister broke her maiden second out and then won a stake before becoming the dam of unbeaten G2 winning juvenile, NOBLE STYLE; her dam’s other half-sibling, ARTHUR KITT, broke his maiden on debut before following up in a 2yo stake at Royal Ascot; and her second dam, CEILING KITTY, was also a fast and precocious 2yo, who followed up a listed stake success at York with a victory in the 27 runner Queen Mary Stakes (G2) at Royal Ascot in 2012.
If you managed to follow all of that, I applaud you. But to put it simply, ELITE HEAT carries one of the most precocious two-year-old pedigrees that you will find on Saturday and it’s not all that surprising to see that she sold for as much as she did in April.
Her bloodlines alone entitle her to respect in this race, however, when you then consider that Cox hits at 27% ($2.13 ROI) with first out 2yo’s at the Fair Grounds and 32% (9-for-28) when teaming up with Pedroza in maiden races at the track, she suddenly becomes a must use and I for one am excited to see what she can produce.
Churchill Downs, Race 7 - 2yo MSW (6 1/2f): #7 SEA VISTA
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Morning line odds: 5/2
Back over at Churchill Downs, their Late Pk5 sequence on Saturday kicks off with a deep MSW for two-year-old boys featuring some hefty price tags and standout pedigrees. Former ITM eye-catcher SEA VISTA makes his eagerly awaited second career start in this spot and to my eye, he’s going to be very tough to beat.
Another well bred individual trained by that man Brad Cox, this Godolphin homebred is sired by 2007 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner STREET SENSE and is out of three-time GSW, SARA LOUISE. That makes him a full brother to GSP performer SPA CITY, and a half-brother to stake winner NASH, who earlier this year chased home SIEZE THE GREY in the Pat Day Mile (G2).
With such a strong pedigree and solid set of connections behind him, it was unsurprising to see SV bet down to share favoritism at odds of 3/1 for his debut at Saratoga earlier this year. He ultimately finished second to Todd Pletcher’s well regarded trainee, UNCAGED; however, having broken slowly, raced greenly early on, and then closed from last while seven wide on a speed favoring track, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to suggest that SV was actually the best horse in the race. Oh, and it’s also worth mentioning that he was bumped numerous times in the stretch as well. All things considered, he did exceptionally well to finish where he did and physically, he looked a very classy individual. For the effort, he was rewarded an 80 Beyer - a repeat of which could be good enough to win on Saturday - and more importantly, he was rewarded the accolade of becoming an ITM eye-catcher!
On all known form and pedigree, SV sets a clear standard for this race and assuming that he makes that natural progression you would expect of a juvenile between starts one and two, he should be tough to stop. The question and potential concern though, is why haven’t we seen him run back already? Following his run at Saratoga, there was a gap of 77-days before he recorded another workout and in the 112-days that have now gone between starts, he’s only been put on the rail five times in the morning. It’s not exactly what you expect or hope to see, and it could well cause him to go off at a larger price than he otherwise would have done. However, for me personally, the break is no issue at all. After all, Cox wouldn’t be sending a nice horse like him back out if he didn’t think he was ready, and then you take a look at some staggering stats pertaining to Cox:
When sending out second time starters who had a 100- 150-day layoff after their debut, Cox hits at 46% (6-for-13) with a $2.76 ROI.
Over the last three years, when sending out second time starting 2yo’s who hit the board on debut in dirt MSW races, Cox hits at a breathtaking 47% clip (21-for-45) while posting a positive $2.86 ROI.
TARTARIAN and TROUBLESHOOTING should ensure that this contest is run at a strong clip, setting it up beautifully for SEA VISTA to finish strongly once again and take advantage of the extra 1/16 miles that he gets to work with. Hopefully, he can then extend the strong recent form of ITM eye-catchers.
ITM Eye-Catchers with Entries This Weekend
Saturday
Churchill Downs R7: SEA VISTA (5/2)
Churchill Downs R10: DASHMAN (5/2), HERCHEE (3/1)
Del Mar R9: DAIRAGO (3/1)
Sunday
Churchill Downs R4: STAR OF WONDER (8/5)
Churchill Downs R7: KEEPSAKE (9/5)
Fair Grounds R7: ANAKARINA (9/2)
Good luck to everyone having a wager on Saturday!