Horses to Follow - Saturday, November 30, 2024

By Will Humphrey

It’s been a heck of a week already on the racing front and there’ll be no letting up on Saturday. Here are three horses who catch the eye today as well as several recent ITM eye-catchers to consider using in your wagers. Good luck!

CD R1 - 2yo Fillies MSW (7f): #2 CHASTEN

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Florent Geroux

Morning line odds: 8/5

If like me, you’re fully expecting GOOD CHEER to extend her unbeaten record to four-for-four in race nine at Churchill Downs today, then you may want to tune in for the opener as well, to see how her workmate CHASTEN fares on debut.

That’s right, Brad Cox has had this first time starting, Juddmonte owned and bred daughter of INTO MISCHIEF breezing in company with the regally bred, Godolphin owned stakes winning filly who is listed as the 4/5 ML favorite for today’s Golden Rod S. (G2). As trainers tend to pair horses up based on who they believe are of similar ability levels, it would be fair to deduce that CHASTEN is held in fairly high regard by connections and if you watch this workout from last Saturday, it’s easy to see why. She is clearly going as well, if not better than GOOD CHEER, and it’s hard not to be extremely impressed with the visual impression that she leaves.

What about her pedigree, I hear you ask? Well, her dam, LOCKDOWN, was a stakes winner who placed in multiple graded stakes including a third-place finish in the 2017 Kentucky Oaks (G1), and she herself is a half sister to multiple G1 winning champion and now multiple stakes producing dam, CLOSE HATCHES. If that’s not enough for you, CHASTEN herself is also a half sister to 5x G1 winner, IDIOMATIC, who recently had the curtain brought down on her Eclipse Award winning career. Find me a stronger pedigree than that on Saturday, and I’ll buy you a drink.

The 46.60 bullet gate drill on October 18 would offer hope that this filly can get away quickly and cleanly from her inside post position while the 27% strike rate that Cox and Juddmonte have with debuting fillies only bolsters her chances. She has a lot going for her and is going to be a short price, so whether you want to get financially invested in her is up to you (I’ll purely be watching with a keen interest). What’s she promises is exciting though and it should be worth tuning in to see whether Saturday’s ‘steam horse’ can live up to the hype.

Dmr R7 - The Grade 2 Seabiscuit Handicap (1 1/16 Miles, Turf): #7 REDISTRICTING

Trainer: Chad Brown

Jockey: Flavien Prat

Morning line odds: 3/1

A horse I’m excited to see running today, and also think will be hard to beat, is REDISTRICTING - a rare Chad Brown starter on the West Coast.

As a KINGMAN half sibling to three individual black type performers, out of a winning full sister to none other than Aidan O’Brien’s 6x G1 winner/2011 Breeders’ Cup Turf winning champion ST NICHOLAS ABBEY, (who put together this incredible career record), hopes have always been high for this horse, made evident by the fact that following a maiden breaking debut at Belmont last June, Brown pitched him straight into a G1 in just his second start - a move Brown has made with just two horses in the last five years.

Now at the end of his four-year-old campaign, it’s been disappointing that we haven’t seen more of him on the track, having made only three starts since that Belmont Derby (G1) in which he finished seventh. He trounced a decent allowance field at BAQ in start number three last October before he was then worryingly pulled up in the Hollywood Derby (G1) here at Del Mar last December. He was traveling well in a stalking position that day and looked to be in with a winning chance but then bolted on the home bend and threw his chance away. Young and inexperienced horses can do that sort of thing for no apparent reason, however, when a 316-day layoff followed for REDISTRICTING, one would have to decipher that something went amiss with the colt during the race.

When we recently saw the Klaravich Stables owned son of KINGMAN return to the track on October 13 for what was just career start number five, he went down by a neck to his stablemate ANDTHEWINNERIS - but boy oh boy was he the best horse in the race. All dressed up with nowhere to go on the rail turning for home, traffic trouble meant that he never got rolling until it was far too late and even though he finished like a shot, he ultimately missed. Here’s the replay, where you can see for yourself not only just how unlucky he was, but also how he then gallops out in front with his ears pricked like a fresh horse.

It would be very logical to believe that he was much better than the 94 Beyer/118 TUS speed figures would suggest that day, yet those figures still make him live in Saturday’s contest as they are. When you then factor in that he was running off a 316-day layoff last time, you’d also have to imagine that, even though Brown is excellent at getting horses ready off the bench, REDISTRICTING will step forward somewhat for the comeback effort in relation to his overall fitness and sharpness.

The cut back to 1 1/16 miles should be no problem with a strong pace forecast and we obviously know that Prat and Brown are a formidable team (28% in turf route stakes; $2.48 ROI). Coupled with the fact that over the last five years Brown is 10-for-34 (29%) at Del Mar outside of Breeders’ Cup races, and I’d be delighted if this guy’s 3/1 ML odds held up. Whatever the case, he’s an intriguing and exciting individual who promises to have much more in the locker than we’ve seen so far and I for one am excited to see what he can produce on Saturday.

Dmr R9 - The Grade 1 Hollywood Derby (1 1/8 Miles, Turf): #2 ROTHSCHILD

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Jockey: Flavien Prat

Morning line odds: 15/1

There’s a strong possibility that Flavian Prat will already have found the winners’ circle by the time we reach the nightcap feature at Del Mar in Saturday, and while it may take a little imagination to believe that he can round the day off with another success on ROTHSCHILD, I think that this horse warrants some consideration.

The highly regarded $700k son of UNCLE MO caught the eye when trainer Tim Yakteen aborted the dirt racing mission last year and instead, tried him on the weeds. In his first start on the turf, he bounced back from heavy defeat by MUTH in the American Pharoah S. (G1), with a 23/1 runner-up effort in the Cecil B. DeMille S. (G2) here at Del Mar last December - a race won by the re-opposing STAY HOT.

It was then 230-days before he resurfaced with another eye-catching third place finish in the Oceanside S. this July. He gave race fitness away to all of his rivals that day and then got caught extremely wide into the stretch, so all things considered, did well to finish only two lengths behind FORMIDABLE MAN.

Off to Kentucky Downs in August, and again he put in a monster effort at odds of 29/1 to finish third in the $3.1m Nashville Derby Invitational S., just a nose behind Saturday’s 3/1 ML favorite, CARSON’S RUN. He earned a Beyer of 89 that day - a figure bettered by only two of his rivals on Saturday - while beating numerous stakes winners such as last weekend’s Commonwealth Turf S (G3) winner, LAGYNOS.

All of that form gives him a shot on Saturday; the big concern though, and reason why he’s been listed at 15/1 for this race, is that at odds of 2/1 in his last start, he regressed his Beyer to a 73 with a sixth place finish in the Twilight Derby (G2), finishing behind four rivals who re-oppose here today.

A disappointing run it was and that results obviously creates risk if betting him on Saturday; however, not only did he get caught wide on both turns that day, meaning that he covered 27ft further than the winner, but to my eye, he was also unsuited by the slow tempo, as he’s a big, long striding individual who doesn’t quicken as much as he stays on at the end of his races, so the opposition simply out-sprinted him late.

The key to this horse running well seems to be how strong the pace is early and to what degree stamina plays a role in the result. With the likes of DONEGAL MOMENTUM, CHATALAS and TIRUPATI in this race, ensuring that a swift early tempo will be set, there’s a chance of him bouncing back to form and outrunning his odds as he returns to Del Mar - a track that not only suits closers better than Santa Anita, but also a track that he’s proven himself around. Whether or not he’s quite good enough to win remains to be seen; however, if you toss his last start, he’s looks overpriced, having proven more than once that on his day, he’s as good as anyone in this field. It’s only a positive that Prat is getting aboard and as he’s twice recently hit the board at odds over 20/1, he merits consideration à mon avis, especially if you play this race vertically.

ITM Eye-catchers

NEOM BEACH ($15.08), CIVETTA ($3.80) and GOLDEN AFTERNOON ($6.00) made it a very Happy Thanksgiving indeed on Thursday! There are no less than twelve more ITM eye-catchers to take a look at today, all of whom have recently been identified in Monday’s newsletter as horses to keep onside…

• AQ R9: LIFE TALK (4/1)

• CD R1: LA FANTASTICA (15/1)

• CD R11: FIRST RESORT (9/2)

• Dmr R3: SIENNOIS (10/1)

• Dmr R5: SUPA SPEED (7/2)

• Dmr R7: REDISTRICTING (3/1)

• Dmr R9: ROTHSCHILD (15/1)

• Dmr R9: KING OF GOSFORD (5/1)

• Dmr R9: ATITLAN (8/1)

• Dmr R9: CATHAL (15/1)

• FG R8: CLOUDWALKER (8/1)

• GP R10: RATED BY MERIT (3/5)

Final Thoughts…

To round out this week’s Horses to Follow, I want to highlight the strong hand that Cherie DeVaux is scheduled to play in both turf MSW races at the Fair Grounds today.

In the fourth race, she’ll send out PISCIOTTA - a WOOTTON BASSETT three-year-old filly out of a half sister to 4x G1 winning European Champion, AL KAZEEM. PISCIOTTA has run with enormous credit in three starts to date and on all known form, should be tough to beat against this seemingly weaker field with blinkers going on and Jose Ortiz taking the mount for the first time.

Just two races later, Ortiz and DeVaux will team up again with DIVINE ROSE - a two-year-old half sister to this year’s Ashland S. (G1) winner LESLIE’S ROSE, whose close family also includes G1 winners MATERIALITY and ANNAPOLIS. DIVINE ROSE ran a super race to finish second at BAQ on debut with a 68 Beyer. Lasix now go on and like her stablemate, she would appear tough to beat on paper.

Both fillies have made promising starts to their careers and have superb bloodlines that point towards them developing over time. It would be a surprised to see them both make up into high class individuals and they should be worth keeping an eye on today.

Good luck to everyone having a wager on Saturday!