Horses to Follow - Saturday, January 25, 2025

By Will Humphrey

Start by cracking into the Southwest Stakes, then gently mix in the Pegasus World Cup Turf, and finish by drizzling the Pegasus World Cup on top - what a delightful recipe! Regardless of whether you’re a big-time bettor or someone who simply enjoys watching these magnificent thoroughbreds doing what they’re bred and love to do, it’s hard not to get excited for days like today. As we’d say in England, ‘it’s a right belter’! And so, as always, here are three intriguing horses to note today, plus several recent ITM Eye-catchers to consider using in your wagers. Good luck!

Gulfstream Park R2 - 3YO MSW (7f, Dirt): #5 DISRUPTOR

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr

Morning line odds: 7/5

With an 11:00am (E.T.) first post, two captivating MSW races kick off proceedings at Gulfstream Park today and unsurprisingly - based on pedigrees, connections and price tags - it would appear that a nice horse or two are about to launch their careers. DISRUPTOR, for example.

If you spend any amount of time circulating in the spoopy world of Racing X, then you may well have seen DISRUPTOR’s name pop up in your timeline already. He’s had people talking about him for a little while and will undoubtedly be the ‘hype horse’ of the day. “Why?” I hear you ask. Well, turn the clock back to Day 3 of the 2023 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, and you’ll find that he was already making headlines having passed through the sales ring for $1.15m - the highest price of that day’s session. With a standout physique and a dam whose siblings include 7x stakes winner BRIDGETOWN and stakes winners CLEMENTS ROCK and CARNACKS CHOICE, Spendthrift Farm and Repole Stable were prepared to pay more than they expected for the son of GUN RUNNER to ensure that it was their silks he’d be carrying today. You can read about the sale HERE. DISRUPTOR was clearly a very impressive yearling.

Personally, I love an expensive purchase. Who doesn’t right? But DISRUPTOR’s attractive pedigree and eye-watering price tag aren’t the only positive aspects relating to his chances today. No, he’s also been setting a precedent at Palm Beach Downs Training Centre in Florida recently and, price tag and pedigree aside, has been looking the real deal in his morning works. A solid work-tab featuring two recent bullet drills is highlighted by a half-mile from the gate last Saturday in 47.04 under today’s rider, Irad Oritz Jr. You can watch that work HERE; do so, and see the way in which he athletically spurts away from his workmate (an un-raced daughter of MORE THAN READY) before galloping out like he’s only just getting warmed up. Impressive, to say the least.

And then there’s the equally impressive stats behind the connections: over the last five years, leading trainer Todd Pletcher has been hitting at 28% with first time starters in dirt MSW’s at Gulfstream Park (41-for-149; $2.02 ROI). Filter those runners down to the ones Irad has ridden - horses such as BRIGHT FUTURE and MINDFRAME - and that strike rate instantly jumps up to 37% (17-for-46; $2.99 ROI). Again, impressive, to say the least.

So, the pedigree behind DISRUPTOR is strong and deep, the price tag on top of him is sky high, the workouts he’s produced have been eye-popping, and the connections supporting him are some of the best in the game. Add in the fact that he’s drawn beautifully in gate five, and there’s really not much to dislike. If you believe the hype, he could be the real deal and personally, I’m pumped to see what he can bring to the table. Not a horse I’ll be trying to take on.

Gulfstream Park R4 - $100k Hcp (1m 70yds, Synthetic): #4 TUTTA LA VITA

Trainer: Ignacio Correas

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr

Morning line odds: 4/1

The first of two $100k handicaps on the synthetic at Gulfstream goes as race four today and a deep, contentious field has been assembled. With a number of hard-knocking, consistent mares in the line-up - names such as DANNA’S BEAUTY, DREAMING OF MO and SAND AND SEA - we have a rough idea of the form level required to win this race. Therefore, the question is raised: how good is TUTTA LA VITA?

John Stewart’s Resolute Racing snapped up this five-year-old Australian-bred daughter of THE AUTUMN SUN for AUS$3.2m (~US$2.1m) at the Inglis Chairman's Sale in May last year. Why so much? Well, not only is she a well bred half sister to four black-type performers, meaning that she instantly has broodmare potential, but she’d also already hit the board in three G1 races down under and bagged over US$300k in just eleven starts. She fit the mold of a mare Big Spending Stewart could use to complete his mission of dominating turf racing worldwide, and he clearly liked her a lot.

Originally, TUTTA LA VITA’s big target was the Queensland Oaks (G1) in Australia, however, when her first start for Resolute resulted in an eighth-place finish in The Roses (G2) at Doomben, stumps were pulled on plan A and instead, the Breeders’ Cup was targeted.

Shipped stateside and settled into the barn of Ignacio Correas, for reasons unknown to me, the filly didn’t make it to Del Mar but she did make it to Gulfstream Park for a one-mile allowance on December 28. Unfortunately, due to an injured rider on the track, that race was declared void. However, as the majority of the riders incorrectly continued riding to obtain the best possible finishing position, including Irad Ortiz on TUTTA LA VITA, we were still able to get a gauge of how she handled an American track and shaped up against American rivals - and there was a lot to like. Following a rusty break, she traveled powerfully in rear and coasted into contention before meeting traffic in the stretch to cross the wire a better-than-looks second. She then galloped out impressively, well clear of the field in a manner that suggested she was the best horse in the race.

Overall, it was pleasing stateside debut from TUTTA LA VITA and one in which, despite the fact that the race was declared void, TUS awarded her a 109-speed figure for - not too shabby considering that she met trouble in running, it was her first ever start in America, and her first start for 217-days. And as she now returns to the track following two pleasing maintenance works for her second start of the form cycle, it seems likely that she’ll step forward from that 109 TUS figure, possibly setting her clear of her opposition today. It’s not insignificant that Irad stays aboard today as he doesn’t ride many duds - nor horses for Correas, for that matter - and it seems that they’ll be getting an ideal pace set-up. She’s been working well over the synthetic surface recently, so the track should be no issue, and quite simply, as a multiple G1 placed performer ‘down under’, who recently had the Breeders’ Cup on her agenda, she could just be better than today’s rivals. Quite simply, TUTTA LA VITA is a fascinating contender and in a race of this nature, you’d be braver than me to leave her off your ticket at ~4/1.

Fair Grounds R7 - 4YO+ F&M MSW (1 1/16 Miles, Turf): #10 HOPE MISSION

Trainer: Brendan Walsh

Jockey: Jamie Torres

Morning line odds: 7/2

7/2 at the Fair Grounds pays the same as at Gulfstream, right? The racing in New Orleans might not be at the centre of attention today but regardless, they still have a great card on tap. Race seven is a MSW for 4YO fillies and mares going two turns on the turf where at ML odds of 7/2, HOPE MISSION catches the eye.

Now, the first thing that I want to do is flesh out this Godolphin homebred’s pedigree. By MEDAGLIA D’ORO, the four-year-old bay filly is out of the former Saeed bin Suroor trained G3 winner/G1 placed turf miler, ARABIAN HOPE, who herself is a half to Bob Baffert’s MGS winning dirt sprinter, CEZANNE. Jump back a generation and you’ll find that, although un-raced, HOPE MISSION’s second dam was a half to G1 winner STREAMING, while her third dam - again un-raced - was a half sister to both 2006 Belmont S. (G1) winner JAZIL, as well as the heralded wonder-mare of 2007 RAGS TO RICHES, who defeated CURLIN, also in the Belmont S.! Does that make you feel nostalgic, or what!

Although it’s still early days, it seems unlikely that HOPE MISSION is going to reach the lofty heights that some of her relations did. However, she made a more than satisfactory debut for Brendan Walsh and looks set to get off the mark today.

Her debut came in an off-turf MSW here at the Fair Grounds on December 28. Bet into odds of 2/1 that day, she gamely chased home a gate-to-wire even money favorite trained by Brad Cox, who was benefiting from both prior race-day experience and match fitness. As well as having pulled 5 3/4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher that day and having made a visually great impression, HOPE MISSION earned a very respectable 79 Beyer/106 TUS figure for the effort - clear standouts in today’s race.

Now returning to the track for start number two with the benefit of race fitness and experience behind her, as well as the chance to step foot on the turf for the first time, HOPE MISSION projects to be a major player in this race today. As one of only two horses in the line-up who have only made one prior start, she has more scope for improvement than most and as a Brendan Walsh trainee, you can expect that improvement to come. Case in point, with first time starters in route races, Walsh wins at just 12% and only finishes ITM at 37%. However, with second time starters in route races, he hits at 19% and 44%. Filter that down to second time starters in route races who hit the board on debut, and those statistics suddenly jump up to 26% and 55% (20 wins for 77 starts), with a positive $2.54 ROI, proving that Walsh doesn’t fully crank his horses for their firsts outs and therefore, generally, the ones who still manage to hit the board are pretty talented. More, when you filter those statistics down even further to second time starters in route races who hit the board on debut and are owned by Godolphin, we’re now looking at a 40% strike rate from Brendan Walsh (6-for-15) with 73% ITM and a positive ROI of $3.39.

And so, with a superb pedigree behind her, a tremendous debut effort under her belt, a standout speed figure and further improvement highly, highly likely, all indications suggest that HOPE MISSION will graduate out of the maiden ranks today, hopefully making her 7/2 ML odds look a gift.

ITM Eye-catchers

Make sure to also give these recent ITM Eye-catchers some consideration over the weekend, all of whom have recently been identified in Monday’s newsletter as horses to keep onside…

Saturday

• FG R7: FANCY QUALITY

• GP R9: DASHMAN (AE)

• GP R10: MINOUSHKA

• OP R2: LA HOULIGAN

• OP R6: KINETIC

• OP R9: ADEERA

• OP R10: PATCH ADAMS

• TAM R5: INTO AMORE

Sunday

• GP R8: ANYBODY BUT YOU

• GP R9: CYCLONE MISCHIEF

One Last Thing…

43%. No, that’s not the chance of precipitation at Gulfstream Park today. 43% is actually the percentage at which with 3YO boys who hit the board last out, Bob Baffert wins MSW sprints at Santa Anita. For what it’s worth, over the last five years, his record stands at 10-for-23, 83% ITM with a positive ROI of $2.22. Incredible. And Bob has a great chance of enhancing that strike rate in the fourth today when SAN SABA tries to reverse the form with Mark Glatt’s trainee, FATHER TED.

Both horses debuted in the same MSW on December 26. The heavily hyped $725k son of JUSTIFY, SAN SABA, was bet like a certainty into odds of 6/5 that day and when you watch THIS 58.80 move alongside G1 winner/today’s Southwest S. favorite GAMING, you can understand why. Big things were expected of SAN SABA on debut, however, having dueled three deep through fractions of 21.99, 44.50, he ended up a fading to finish 3 1/2 lengths behind the $425k purchase FATHER TED, who had been dismissed at odds of 8/1.

So, round two is on the table today - can FATHER TED prove that beating SAN SABA last time was no fluke, or will SAN SABA be able to establish a more comfortable lead and live up to the hype after all? Or will a new face upset them both?

Before capping this race today, I’d encourage you to listen back to THIS EPISODE of the Nick Luck Daily Podcast on inthemoneypodcast.com (TS: 35:00), where, when quizzed about who was his best shot at winning the Kentucky Derby, Baffert specifically mentioned two horses: SAN SABA, and VARNEY. Yes, that’s right, even though SAN SABA was beaten on debut, Baffert still allotted him with high praise and indicated that he’s Derby candidate in his mind. And the other horse he mentioned, VARNEY, well he’s the other Baffert entry in this race and will be making his debut from the rail. Mentioned as a Derby candidate before he’d set foot on the racetrack - that’s bold, Bob.

So, now we have SAN SABA vs FATHER TED vs VARNEY: a tantalizing MSW. Add in the first time starting $500k son of MACLEAN’S MUSIC, MODUS BESTIA, and the $310k son of CITY OF LIGHT, ATTACK NOW, and this race, regardless of whether or not you have a bet, suddenly becomes must watch material, potentially providing Kentucky Derby clues.

Good luck to everyone having a wager on Saturday!