Horses to Follow - Saturday, January 11, 2025

By Will Humphrey

VERSUS ($9.00) kicked off the New Year nicely last week by sticking us in the green, before recent ITM eye-catchers G W’S GIRL ($12.80) and ENLIGHTEN ($11.40) popped the cherry on top of the cake. Weather permitting, we look set for another quality day of competitive racing today and so, as always, here are three more intriguing horses plus several recent ITM Eye-catchers to consider using in your Saturday wagers. Good luck!

Gulfstream R7 - 3YO MSW (One Mile, Dirt): #8 GOSGER

Trainer: Brendan Walsh

Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

Morning line odds: 7/2

Get the notebooks out, this MSW could easily throw up a decent type or two. Glancing over the field, the price tags are high, pedigrees are deep, the connections are fearsome and plenty of the form on offer is rock solid. It could go any way; I’ll be singling GOSGER.

Now, regular readers with good memories may remember me getting all excited about this horse before he ran on debut. Why? Well, half of the reason was that his pedigree is pretty strong, to say the least. By NYQUIST, he’s out of the un-raced TAPIT mare, GLORIA S, making him a half-brother to five winners including GSP performer ARCHIE THE GIZA, as well as G1 winning turf router, HARVEY’S LIL GOIL, who earned $899k in just fourteen career starts. Jump back a generation, and you’ll find that GOSGER’s dam, although un-raced, was not only a half sister to two-time G3 winner GOLDEN AWARD, but also the heralded 2012 Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness S. (G1) champion, I’LL HAVE ANOTHER. As I said before Christmas, I enjoy trying to find the ‘sexiest’ pedigrees on any given day, and since this guy is a half to a G1 winner, out of a half to I’LL HAVE ANOTHER, I’d say that he’s the winner of Saturday’s ‘sexiest pedigree’ competition.

The other half of the reason why I was so pumped up about seeing this guy on debut before Christmas was because, to compliment his fantastic pedigree, he was working like a man against boys at Palm Meadows Training Centre, such as when he put in THIS 47.95 bullet gate drill in November and THIS 48.25 bullet in December.

He took some cash at the windows for that maiden at Gulfstream, was sent off at odds of 5/2; ultimately finished second with a modest 73 Beyer but was much the best. On a day when speed was good in Hallandale, GOSGER set himself a huge task by hitting the gate, trailing the field early, and then trying to run down a far more experienced and talented near gate-to-wire winner. He made a good go of it though, throwing in a huge mid race move while three wide on the bend before continuing to run on into a clear second while racing greenly in the stretch, over five lengths ahead of the third-place finisher. It was a disappointing result for his supporters, but in no way did it deflect from the idea that GOSGER is a talented individual.

With that first race day experience now under his belt and a couple of pleasing maintenance drills since, I’m hopeful that GOSGER can take this stretch out to one mile in his stride and progress his way into the winners’ circle today. As a second time starter, one would expect that he’ll naturally be sharper away from the gate today, establishing a more prominent position early, and she should also be less babyish in the stretch, running straighter. Based off both his pedigree and the way he shaped on debut, it’s hard to see the one-mile trip presenting any issue, nor should the eight post. He gets lasix for the first time, T Gaff sticks, and also: with second time starters who hit the board on debut, Walsh and Gaffalione team up to hit at 32% in route races (8-for-25) with a $3.11 ROI. There’s a lot to like here and with question marks hovering over his main rivals, I’ll be making GOSGER my top pick in this race. Regardless of whether you get financially involved here though, it should be a maiden worth watching.

Fair Grounds R6 - OC 100k/N1X Allowance (3YO, 6f, Dirt): #1 HAY JUDE

Trainer: Thomas Amoss

Jockey: Edgar Morales

Morning line odds: 7/2

Two LA bred stake races highlight the card at the Fair Grounds today, though it’s a runner in the sixth – a six-furlong allowance for newly turned three-year-olds - that really catches my eye. Sold for $25k as a foal, $62k as a yearling and then $70k as a two year old at the OBS Two-Year-Olds & HRA Sale last June, HAY JUDE has made a scintillating start to his career and, in the hope that he wins again today, he could be a name we hear continue to hear about in the future.

When he finally made his racecourse appearance for trainer Tom Amoss and owner Maggi Moss at Delta Downs last October, boy did he make a splash. Bet down to odds of 2/1, he went to the lead and never looked back against an average field, blitzing them by no less than eight lengths with a solid Beyer of 79. As visually impressive as that debut success was though, start number two in the LA bred Joseph R. Peluso Memorial S. was even more impressive. Having broken flat footed that day, he was out-sped for the lead by five other impressive looking last out winners and then had to check hard when trying to creep closer along the rail at the 3/8 pole. Having been shuffled back to last at the head of the stretch, connections would probably have been satisfied with a second or third place finish from where he was. However, unlike many two-year-olds, he handled his first taste of kickback like a seasoned pro and quickly regathered his stride, bobbing and weaving his way through traffic like he’d just jumped in at the 1/4 pole before going onto comfortably maintain his perfect record. The stretch run is worth a WATCH.

Unfortunately, HAY JUDE then lost his perfect record in start number three when finishing second in the Louisiana Champions Day Juvenile S. last month. What he didn’t lose though, was anything in defeat. Once again racing off the pace towards the inside, he found himself full of run but boxed in and with nowhere to go rounding into the stretch. All the while, the eventual winner SMOKEN WICKED, who had previously hit the board in a G2, finished fourth to CHANCER MCPATRICK in two G1’s and record a 92 Beyer in his previous start, was making effortless and persistent headway with a dream three-wide trip. HAY JUDE eventually got clear in the stretch and made a furious late run at the winner, closing two lengths on that foe inside the final furlong, but couldn’t get up in time. WATCH THAT RACE and the way in which Amoss’ trainee finishes like a freight train and then gallops out powerfully in front of SMOKEN WICKED, and you could easily argue that a rough trip caused the best horse finished second - quite a statement considering the race record SMOKEN WICKED had already put together and then bolstered next time, coming straight back with a win in the LA Futurity S. with a 92 Beyer.

Now moving from restricted to open company and facing a fresh group of unexposed horses, bettors understandably have reason to look past HAY JUDE today. However, whichever way you dice it, the form, the speed figure (85 Beyer), and the visual impression that Amoss’ near perfect three-year-old son of AURELIUS MAXIMUS ran in defeat last time, combined with his overall resumé being the only stakes winner in the field, makes him a clear standout here, and to my eye at least, he appears well spotted to get straight back into the winners’ circle. Edgar Morales, who over the last two years has struck at 25% at the Fair Grounds when teaming up with Amoss (38-for-155; $2.42 ROI) takes the ride for the first time, which is only a positive, and he’ll be loving the fact that the forecast red-hot pace should spread this field out somewhat, making negotiating a trip from the rail far more straightforward.

While accepting the fact that some of the other un-exposed runners in the line-up could have more to offer, I personally see HAY JUDE as not just a decent LA bred stakes performer, but a potential name to note going forward in open stakes races, and I can’t yet say the same about his rivals. He’s a horse that I’m expecting a big effort from today and I’ll be looking for him to stamp his authority on this field before going onto reach greater heights.

Turfway Park R6 - Likely Exchange S. (One Mile, Synthetic): #2 EARHART

Trainer: Josie Carroll

Jockey: Luis Contreras

Morning line odds: 5/2

Regardless of whether you have any bullets left to fire by the time 8:25pm E.T. rolls around tonight, I’d encourage you to at the very least tune in to the sixth at Turfway Park this evening - the Likely Exchange S. - to watch what could be the coming out party for a potential star.

A beautifully bred four-year-old daughter of leading European sire SIYOUNI, trained by Josie Carroll, EARHART always threatened to be a little special. You see, she’s out of a stake winning half sister to three black type performers and her extended family includes G1 winners ZO IMPRESSIVE and ZAFTIG, as well as one of only four Royal Ascot starters sent out by Todd Pletcher, GIDU. Therefore, with such a deep pedigree and an exceptional physique to boot, it was little surprise to see this gal fetch a cool €1.4m as a yearling at the Arqana August Sale in 2022. You can see her going through the ring here.

Obviously, a lot of well bred, good looking, expensive purchases turn out to be duds on the track, but not this gal. Having had the Woodbine clockers getting all giddy leading up to her debut, she more than lived up to the hype at odds of 4/5, sauntering through the stretch doing only a half speed to score by 6 3/4 lengths in a performance that saw her cover seven furlongs only 0.26 seconds slower than the Bessarabian S. (G3) was run only five races later. Impressive stuff considering her jock never once asked her for an effort.

Then, in start number two, she was even more impressive. Eleven lengths was the winning margin of victory this time, even though she was heavily eased inside the final 70yds. In an effort that this time saw her cover a geared down seven furlongs in 1:21.99, she earned a 96 Beyer speed figure, as well as the chart comment, “dominant”.

Tonight is going to be by far her biggest to date. She stretches out to one mile for the first time, the lasix are removed, she’s playing an “away game” running outside of Woodbine for the first time, and she’s also likely going to be facing pressure for the lead, (maybe). There are clearly obstacles for her to overcome this evening and I wouldn’t argue with anyone who decides to take her on with the view that, “if she’s gonna get beat, it’s gonna to be today”. However, with a cosy draw in gate two, I’m going to put my neck on the line and say that she wins by a pole again. I mean, the further she goes, she better she gets, and I personally don’t see how an extra furlong nor two turns are going to dent her ability. Furthermore, having been waltzing to the lead and setting honest fractions with such ease over seven furlongs, one would imagine that she’s going to get to the lead and dictate the pace to her advantage again here, with the other speed drawn much wider. Regarding the lasix, you’d hope that following two races and twenty-one workouts, connections know whether she’s a filly who’s reliant on the medication to perform well or not, and they seemingly have no concerns - so why should I be concerned? And with relation to the track, well, she’s been training at Turfway since the middle of December, so she isn’t actually going to be playing an “away game”.

Combining all of the above with the fact that Josie Carroll has gone 4-for-10 (40%) in route races at Turfway over the last five years, boasting a $4.33 ROI, there really isn’t much to dislike about EARHARTS chances in my eyes. I’m not sure how I’m going to play this race yet, but with my racing fanboy cap on right now, I’m purely excited to see this talented filly run again this evening and hope we see something special.

ITM Eye-catchers

With a couple of meetings unfortunately lost today, the only two ITME’s running this week have already been fleshed out above!

Saturday

• GP R7: GOSGER

• TP R6: EARHART

One Last Thing…

Before I sign off for this week, I’d like to draw your attention to the loaded sixth race at Turfway Park this evening, a 6 1/2f allowance, that features none other than Larry Rivelli’s 2023 Breeders Cup Turf Sprint (G1) winner, NOBALS.

Based on form and speed figures, this looks a penalty kick for the now six-year-old gelded son of NOBLE MISSION, whose record on the synthetic stands at 6-2-0 from nine starts. However, not only has he been burdened with the outside post position in gate twelve, which as of January 07 has produced zero winners in sprint races at the current Turfway meet, but he’s also had a non-straightforward prep for this race. You may remember that having returned to winning ways in the bet365 Kennedy Road S. (G2) at Woodbine in November, he was then pointed towards the Hong Kong Sprint and shipped over to Sha Tin Racecourse, only to develop a fever upon touchdown that forced connections to scratch him out of the race. Consequently, having then been given medications to recover from the fever and then obviously having had to ship back home, he’s only had one breeze since November 27. With the aforementioned poor post position, he could therefore be a potentially vulnerable favorite to oppose this evening. With who? I’ll leave that to you!

Good luck to everyone having a wager on Saturday!