Horses to Follow - Saturday, January 18, 2025
By Will Humphrey
Scratches and cancelations meant that only one of last Saturday’s horses to follow made it to the gate, and that runner then decided to define the term ‘brutal trip’. Frustrating!
If you can’t take the bad days though, you don’t deserve the good ones - we go again! And so, on what looks set to be a quality day of competitive racing with stakes action coming to us from seven different venues, here are three more horses to follow plus several recent ITM Eye-catchers to consider using in your wagers. Good luck!
Gulfstream Park R6 - Sunshine Turf S. (1 1/16 Miles, Turf): #9 BOPPY O
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Edwin Gonzalez
Morning line odds: 3/1
By fielding the two morning line favorites VICTORY ACHIEVED and BOPPY O, Mark Casse looks to be holding a strong hand in the first of two Florida-bred restricted stakes at Gulfstream Park today - the Sunshine Turf S. going 1 1/16 miles on the turf.
With three straight wins to his name and a Beyer speed figure pattern of 83, 93 & 95, VICTORY ACHIEVED looks a logical top choice on the ML. However, today will not only be the first time that the lightly raced four-year-old has been tried without lasix but it will also be the first time that he’s stretched out around two turns and based on his pedigree, that isn’t guaranteed to suit him – especially with so much pace signed on in this spot. He looks a vulnerable ML favorite to me and instead, I’ll happily take the slightly larger price about BOPPY O.
A winner of the With Anticipation S. (G3) in 2022 and the Jersey Derby in 2023, Gary Barber and D J Stable LLC have had plenty of fun with this talented five year old son of BOLT D’ORO, who I made an ITM Eye-Catcher two starts back following his upgradable second place finish in a competitive synthetic allowance. There were two reasons I highlighted his effort that day and suggested he should be kept onside during the Championship Meet: firstly, for a big horse who takes time to find top stride, I felt that having been boxed in turning for home, he did remarkably well to close into second behind the always prominent winner late on and owing to the trip, his effort in defeat was better than it looked. And secondly, I felt that the run also confirmed that, having posted a career best 117 TUS speed figure off a lengthy layoff in his race prior, he’s now a better horse for having been gelded last February. When he then went ahead and finished second to a talented gate-to-wire winner at odds of 7/1 last time (92 Beyer), he did little to dissuade me of my belief in him.
Now, I understand that horses who have finished second three times in a row aren’t overly attractive to some players. Do they want to win or not? But BOPPY O has lost nothing in defeat in any of his three most recent efforts and as he now moves back to his preferred turf surface today, taking on a field that TUS has rated nine points inferior to the group he met last time, he looks well spotted to find the winners’ circle. He’s clearly coming into the race in super form; his race record and speed figures are some of the best on offer; he should sit an ideal stalking trip behind the projected fast pace towards the outside; and now as a gelding getting back on the turf, there’s still a chance we haven’t seen the best of him just yet. Add in the fact that in route races at Gulfstream Park Mark Casse and Edwin Gonzalez strike at 24% (44-for-181) with a $2.33 ROI, and BOPPY O suddenly has an awful lot going for him. You’d be braver than me to dismiss him today.
Fair Grounds R6 - The Duncan F. Kenner S (5 1/2f, Turf): #7 UNCASHED
Trainer: Larry Rivelli
Jockey: Walter Rodriguez
Morning line odds: 15/1
Lecomte S. Day at the Fair Grounds features an all stakes late Pk5 to savor. A real humdinger of a sequence. Before we get there though, there’s another stake race to get stuck into - the Duncan F. Kenner S. - featuring Larry Rivelli’s 2023 Breeders Cup Turf Sprint (G1) winner, NOBALS. Based on form and speed figures, this looks a penalty kick for the 9/5 favorite who returned to winning ways impressively in the bet365 Kennedy Road S. (G2) at Woodbine last time out. However, he hasn’t had a straightforward preparation for this race. You may remember him shipping over to Sha Tin Racecourse to run in December’s Hong Kong Sprint, only to develop a fever upon touchdown which forced him to scratch from the race. Consequently, having then required both medications and time to recover from the fever before going through the process of shipping back home and settling back into a steady work pattern, NOBALS has only had one breeze since November 27 - not ideal. Add in a trappy post position in gate one today and I feel there’s enough reason to start getting creative elsewhere…
Now, assuming that you, reader, have access to PP’s, I pose to you this question: could Rivelli’s other entrant, UNCASHED, take this field gate-to-wire? Because, other than possibly BEAR RIVER drawn way out in the parking lot, I don’t see who else is going to be able to lay up with the two-time stakes winning Florida-bred son of UNCAPTURED early. And it’s easy to find positives in him too: he possesses the joint second fastest Beyer speed figure in the race, he’s coming here in raging form having romped on the dirt at Tampa Bay Downs, just ten days ago, his TUS figures match up nicely with his rivals’ in this spot, and it’s certainly no bad thing that the trainer strikes at 42% (19-for-45) when wheeling last out winners back in 14-days or under. I’m liking the fact that he gets to retain the use of lasix today (4-2-0 from six starts using the medication) and as one of only two graded stake winners in the race, he could be very dangerous if shaking lose on the lead.
The obvious major concern regarding his chances today though, I guess, is the surface switch. His one prior start on the grass resulted in a disappointing eighth place finish when sent off at odds of just 3/1 in the 2023 Mahony S. at Saratoga. His BSF dropped from a 96 in his race prior to a career low of 59 that day and so of course, there’s a big question mark today regarding whether he’ll cope with this surface switch back to the turf. But here’s where my second question for you comes in: was such a form drop in the Mahoney S. purely to do with the surface? He wasn’t much better in his next start when moved back on the dirt either and as he then had over a year off, presumably through injury, could it have been that a separate issue, likely physical, was the real reason behind his lackluster effort at Saratoga? Only time will tell but with so much turf form in his pedigree, I’m optimistic that UNCASHED will in fact be able to transfer his ability onto the weeds and Larry Rivelli, who when moving sprinters from dirt to turf hits at 37% (22-for-60) with a $2.87 ROI, seemingly believes the same. If he does, he could easily take this group pillar-to-post and at ~15/1, I won’t be leaving him off my tickets.
Fair Grounds R7 - 3YO MSW (1 1/16 Miles, Dirt): #1 YINZER
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Frankie Dettori
Morning line odds: 9/2
One race after UNCASHED has hopefully cruised in at double digit odds, a competitive group of maidens will line up for a two-turn contest on the main track. Following a second-place finish in the Sugar Bowl S. on debut, DOROTEO tepidly heads the morning line at odds of 3/1. Closely following him at 9/2 on the morning line is G1 winner ARABIAN KNIGHT’s lil’ bro, CROMWELL, and the horse I’m most intrigued by, YINZER. Then we get to the $550k relation to G1 winner BELLE GALLANTEY, PRETTY CAPABLE, who sits on the ML at odds of 6/1.
CROMWELL, YINZER and BELLE GALLANTEY all exit the same race from the Fair Grounds back on December 21 when less than a length split the three of them at the wire, yet their trips throughout the race couldn’t have been more different. CROMWELL made a furious rally from over ten lengths last to just miss; YINZER pressed a hot pace and then took the lead late on, only to then throw the race away by making a B-line for the grandstand inside the final furlong; PRETTY CAPABLE stalked the pace and made then made a late run but was forced to steady late. Check THIS FINISH out, it was wild. All three horses look live players today and with questions over whether the favorite can stretch out around two turns, I expect that one of the three mentioned above will break their maiden here. The question is though, who?
While acknowledging that the very well related CROMWELL showed plenty of ability to finish as close as he did last time, and PRETTY CAPABLE didn’t have the smoothest stretch run, I feel that the horse who finished behind that pair last time, YINZER, shaped with the most promise, not succumbing to a fast early tempo (that aided CROMWELL’s late rally) and being beaten only 3/4 lengths despite having thrown away so much ground in late stretch.
And trust me, this selection isn’t just because I love an expensive purchase and am a huge Frankie Dettori fanboy. No, even the greenest capper could have deduced from his last run that YINZER would benefit from the blinkers that go on for the first time today and with rail speed to his advantage, he too, like UNCASHED in the race prior, looks a legit gate-to-wire threat.
Connections forked out $1m for this well-bred son of TWIRLING CANDY as a yearling, clearly seeing potential in the colt, and in start number three today, here’s hoping that he can graduate out of the maiden ranks. Regardless of whether you play this race though, it looks loaded and could be an informative one to watch.
ITM Eye-catchers
Make sure to also give these recent ITM Eye-catchers some consideration over the next few days, all of whom have recently been identified in Monday’s newsletter as horses to keep onside…
Saturday
GP R8: BEDAZZLE ‘EM (AE)
FG R8: STIR CRAZY
FG R12: GOLDEN AFTERNOON
FG R12: ADMIRAL DENNIS
LRL R4: ONCOURTCOMMENTATOR
Sunday
FG R8: PRETTY SASSY
OP R9: NEOM BEACH
Monday
FG R4: SOMETHING STRONGER
FG R7: ADMIRAL DENNIS
SA R1: OCALA KID
One Last Thing…
Before I sign off for this week, I’d just like to draw your attention to the superb Championship Meet that trainer Martin Drexler is having at Gulfstream Park this winter. The leading Woodbine based trainer who spends his winters in South Florida is striking at no less than 45% (5-for-11) with a positive $2.00 ROI of $4.22. His barn hot right now for sure, and that it itself is worth taking note of. However, the interesting thing about his current run of form is that the horses he’s recently sent out at Gulfstream, whose previous starts came at Woodbine, aren’t just winning, but they’re taking huge leaps forward on the Beyer speed figure scale. Of his eleven runners at the meet so far, all of whom made their previous starts in Canada, nine have run improved Beyers speed figures with an average rate of improvement of 11 points. That’s definitely worth keeping in mind when assessing the chances of his runners.
Drexler’s sole representative in Hallandale today is the Irish-bred mare ZISISIT, who goes in the wide open looking eighth race with Junior Alvarado taking a rare call for the trainer. The mare looks to have something to find on speed figures today, but you could have said that about a number of Drexler’s recent winners too, and at a double-digit price, she could be worthy of consideration.
Good luck to everyone having a wager on Saturday!