Horses to Follow - Saturday, January 04, 2025

By Will Humphrey

Hello and welcome to the first of ITM’s weekly ‘Horses to Follow’ emails of 2025. Each week, I’ll be taking a deep dive into several of Saturday’s runners who, for one reason or another, capture the imagination. Covering everything from impressively bred debutants to horses I simply think a strong case can be made for, I hope that, whether you’re a serious bettor or someone who purely enjoys the thrill of watching these beautiful animals do what they love, you’ll find this content exciting, informative, enjoyable and hopefully, a profitable addition to your betting arsenal. I had a lot of fun writing these pieces last year and am excited to be doing so again in 2025 and so, without further ado, here are a few horses to follow for Saturday, January 04. Good Luck!

Gulfstream Park, R6 - 3YO MSW (1 Mile, Turf): #3 VERSUS

Trainer: Kelly Breen

Jockey: David Egan

Morning line odds: 8/1

To kick off proceedings this week, I’d like to draw your attention to the Kelly Breen trained second time starter VERSUS, who is set to line up in Gulfstream’s sixth today - a two turn MSW on the turf.

This Screen Door Stables LLC owned son of TIZ THE LAW, who was purchased for $70k at the Ocala Breeders’ June Two-Year-Olds & HRA sale last year, caught the eye on debut and subsequently became an ITM eye-catcher, when finishing a better than looks fourth over today’s course and distance, 28-days ago.

The colt broke alertly that day at odds of 32/1 under today’s rider David Egan, but was quickly restrained by the leading British jock and taken back to settle ~5L behind a moderate pace early. Then, at a rare time for interference to occur in a race, a 7lbs apprentice riding the Saffie Joseph, Jr trained CULPA, forced Egan to check VERSUS sharply after making a hard and unnecessary dart from the four path to the rail at the nine-sixteenths pole. VERSUS recovered well though and proceeded to gradually creep back into contention as the field hit the home bend, from where, he was swung widest of all by Egan before making a sustained bid down the lane to finish a solid fourth. As you can then see for yourself here, VERSUS responded nicely to his rider’s encouragement and showed a wiling attitude. What you don’t see in this clip however, is how VERSUS then went ahead and galloped out in front of the entire field, including the re-opposing contender, SWIRLING EIGHTS.

Considering the interference, the lack of pace for him to close into, the wide trip, and the fact that the three horses who beat him last time had prior racing experience, I thought there was plenty to like about the debut effort from VERSUS, and I’m hoping that, with that first career start now behind him and a cleaner trip today, he can step forward to go very close. It’s encouraging to see that Kelly Breen, who is 2-for-7 (29%; $3.09 ROI) with second time starters on the turf at GP, has made a solid start to the Championship Meet (17; 2-1-6) and Egan, who will hopefully ride VERSUS a little more positively from the gate today, has now registered five wins at the meet and started to gather some momentum as of late.

As a half brother to the much loved G3 winner MONEY SUPPLY, with plenty of further black-type form in his pedigree, VERSUS is bred to be a decent type and against this group, who don’t look massively superior to those he faced last time, I wouldn’t be underestimating him at a respectable price, especially if playing this race vertically.

Oaklawn Park, R10 - 4YO+ N1X Allowance (1 1/16 Miles, Dirt): #9 LINEBACKER

Trainer: Jordan Blair

Jockey: Isaac Castillo

Morning line odds: 15/1

Next up, we’ll head over to the nightcap at Oaklawn - a two turn N1X allowance - where at a respectable price, I’ll flesh out a case for the Jordan Blair trained, LINEBACKER.

Being out of a talented half sister to 2015 Del Mar Oaks (G1) winner SHARLA RAE, it wasn’t all that surprising to see connections fork out $130k for this son of BOLT D’ORO at the 2022 Keeneland September Yearling Sale; as he’s now sitting on $122k in purses after just eight career starts, it wasn’t a crazy purchase either. On the whole, he’s been a consistent performer, hitting the board in five of his eight career starts, including when returning off a 189-day layoff to break his maiden in August (83 Beyer), which he followed up with a solid third place finish in a red-hot seven furlong affair at Churchill Downs (89 Beyer). He looked at that stage of his career as if he was developing into a tidy little allowance horse and therefore, it’s somewhat disappointing to see that, on the face of it at least, the wheels have fallen off slightly in his two latest starts, as he’s finished sixth and eighth with regressed Beyer speed figures of 83 and 59, respectively. Those efforts leave him with work to do if he’s to play a role in today’s event, however, it may not be out of the realms of possibility that he can leave those two recent starts behind and get back on track here.

You see, two back, when the chart comment read: “leaned out/bump start, off pace 3p, 6p upper”, he simply found himself too far back trying to close into blue coded TUS fractions over 6 1/2f at Churchill Downs, on a day when the track was providing a huge advantage to forwardly placed runners. With today’s race in mind, it seems fairly easy to draw a line through that effort. Then, in his most recent start when stretched back out to one mile, he never appeared comfortable running on a muddy surface, just like when he tried his hand as a maiden in the muddy Southwest S. (G3) won by MYSTIK DAN last year. As a son of BOLT D’ORO, it’s not that surprising to see that his two worst efforts have come on wet tracks and as he’s hardly done anything wrong on a fast surface, I’m wiling to give him a mulligan for his last effort too.

Connections appear keen to pursue the routing game with LINEBACKER and seemingly believe that two turns will bring out the best in him. Based on the way that he’s shaped in sprint races, I think that they could well have the right idea. And if routing on a fast dirt track does indeed bring this still relatively unexposed colt back to his best, or even produce a new career best, then we know that, having recorded the fastest Beyer speed figure that this race has to offer just three starts ago, he’s good enough to get involved at a square price. It’s encouraging to see that TUS has a fast pace projected for him to close into and also, it shouldn’t go unoticed that in two turn dirt allowance races, trainer Jordan Blair is 8-for-26 (31%) over the last five years, boasting a $5.52 ROI, and overall at Oaklawn, he’s 5-for-25 (20%) with a $5.30 ROI.

Maybe I’m getting a little too creative in this spot, but it seems clear to me that LINEBACKER is a touch better than than he appears and with conditions back in his favor today, at a track where big priced winners are the norm, he’s a horse who I won’t be leaving off my tickets.

Turfway Park, R5 - 3YO MSW (1 Mile, Synthetic): #10 FINAL GAMBIT

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Luan Machado

Morning line odds: 5/2

To round out this week’s horses to follow, we’ll head over to the fifth at Turfway Park tonight - a MSW going one mile on the synthetic. Brad Cox’s second time starter FINAL GAMBIT is a horse I’ve been itching to see run back and, on paper at least, this looks an ideal opportunity for him to break his maiden at the second attempt.

Sent to post at odds of 7/2 in a one mile MSW at Churchill Downs, 56 days ago, this Juddmonte Farms homebred son of NOT THIS TIME, who is out of a half-sister to four black-type performers including G1 winning turf router ANNOUNCE, was pinched badly leaving the gate under Tyler Gaffalione and immediately found himself last of the twelve runners heading into the first turn - a field largely made up of horses who had prior racing experience. The leaders went slow on the front end that day and while bottled up in traffic on the rail and in rear heading through the half mile pole, winning looked to be an impossible task for FINAL GAMBIT. However, he made a good go of it, gradually cutting his way through the field while still under a hold, before Gaffalione sharply maneuvered him towards the centre of the track in the stretch. With still six lengths to make up at the 3/16 pole, FINAL GAMBIT’s response to some firm right-handed asking wasn’t immediate but when T Gaff then switched to left-handed cropping, the colt sprouted wings, passing five rivals inside the final hundred yards to burst his way back into the camera shot and hit the line hard in third. He then went ahead and galloped out very strongly.

To my eye at least, FINAL GAMBIT lost that debut race at the break and it certainly wouldn’t be unreasonable to suggest that, had he been able to adopt a more prominent position in the leisurely paced affair, he could well have passed the wire in front. There’s no doubt in my mind that he was/is better than the bare result and speed figure (60 Beyer) would suggest that day. He strode out late like a talented colt and his strong closing kick, which you can watch for yourself here, was impressive.

As he now takes that initial race experience into start number two, he’s entitled to step forward and potentially give the 2/1 ML favorite KALAHARI DREAMS, who has been beaten at a short price twice in a row now, something to think about. He’s lightly raced and therefore has more scope to improve than the majority of his rivals; he should handle the synthetic track just fine, having trained well over the surface recently and as his sire’s progeny hit at an above par 17% in synthetic routes; he picks up Luna Machado for the first time, who is 5-for-11 (45%, $2.17 ROI) with Cox in route races and oh, lets not forget that when Cox sends Juddmonte Farm owned horses to Turfway, he strikes at no less than 45% (9-for-20) with 75% ITM and a $2.66 ROI. There’s a lot to like here.

Essentially, having been flagged up as an ITM Eyecatcher following what was a better than looks and very promising debut, I’m excited to see what this well bred colt can produce this evening and hope that he can make ~5/2 look a gift, continuing the strong recent form of ITM eye-catchers.

ITM Eye-catchers

Make sure to give these recent ITM Eye-catchers some consideration today, all of whom have recently been identified in Monday’s newsletter as horses to keep onside…

Saturday

• GP R9: NAVY SEAL

• GP R9: ENLIGHTEN

• GP R11: CIVETTA

• OP R1: THE WARDEN

• OP R7: G W’S GIRL

• OP R9: HOT PROPERTY

• SA R5: BULLARD

• SA R7: EAGLES FLIGHT

• SA R10: SIENNOIS

• TP R5: FINAL GAMBIT

One Last Thing…

Before we go, I’d also just like to throw some light onto the stacked card on tap at Santa Anita today, in particular race seven, which features the return of FLIGHTLINE’s highly touted little bro, EAGLES FLIGHT.

Heavily hyped before he’d even set foot on the track, John Saddler’s now 4YO trainee made quite the splash on debut in May, scoring by an easy 2 3/4 lengths with an 89 Beyer under Flavian Prat, instantly earning quotes of ~33/1 overseas for the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic.

We haven’t seen him for 222-days now since that debut effort (potentially suggesting that, like his brother, he’s a touch fragile), but as you can see here, he’s been nothing short of awesome in his recent work and appears more than ready for this return to action. He wont have an easy time of things if he’s to win this race though, as G1 runner up MIRAHMADI and NEW KING, a $700k purchase who broke his maiden with a 94 Beyer last time, will certainly give him something to think about. But EAGLES FLIGHT could just be a class above and even if you don’t play the race, it should be worth a watch.

Good luck to everyone having a wager on Saturday!