Horses to Follow - Saturday, February 08, 2025

By Will Humphrey

With more Kentucky Derby prep action coming our way today, why not kick off Super Bowl weekend by cashing a couple of tickets at the track! Here are three intriguing horses, plus several recent ITM Eye-catchers for you to consider using in your wagers today. Good luck!

Gulfstream Park R8 - 3YO MSW (6f, Dirt): #5 CRUDO

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velasquez

Morning line odds: 4/1

Remember AWESOME RESULT, the unbeaten wonder mare from Japan who was threatening to throw a wrench into THORPEDO ANNA’s forecast procession in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff, right up until she was scratched just one day beforehand? HERE’s an article to jog the memory. Or, what about Gary Contessa’s upset winner of the G1 Spinaway S. in 2018, SIPPICAN HARBOR? Instead, maybe you remember the likable stake winner BODACIOUS BABE, who ran second in the 2017 G3 Sugar Swirl S., before going onto become the dam of Rodolphe Brisset’s talented GSP mare, ROYAL SPA?

I’m sure that many of you recognize at least one of those names, but did you know that they are all siblings? A supremely talented family, no doubt! And, excitingly, if you tune into race eight at Gulfstream Park today - a MSW going 6f on the dirt - you’ll be able to see their younger brother, CRUDO, make his racecourse debut for the Todd Pletcher barn.

Owned by Bobby Flay and James Ventura, the 3-year-old son of Triple Crown winner JUSTIFY was purchased for no less than $350k as a weanling at the Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale of 2022 - one of the highest priced weanlings of the sale. Less than a year later, and he was then RNA’d at $520k as a yearling at the Saratoga Select Sale; had AWESOME RESULT’s career taken off in the way it has done before then however, one would imagine that reserve would have been met.

Sale or no sale, the pedigree and numbers behind CRUDO are all pretty impressive, just like the morning drills that he’s been putting in at Palm Beach Downs Training Centre leading into today’s career debut. Take THIS 48.17 half mile work from the gate on January 18, for example, where despite running on his wrong lead, he absolutely sunk his workmate ADVENTURIST. Or, how about THIS move from last Saturday, when Johnny V went in for a test drive - always a positive sign - and this time on the correct lead, allowed him to zip through another half mile from the gate in 48.55 - the third fastest work of the day. CRUDO’s workmates in those breezes weren’t exactly superstars but regardless, it was hard not to be impressed with how he went about his business.

This isn’t necessarily an easy spot for the son of JUSTIFY to make his debut in - MULTIVERSE and SUMMER VIBES both cost over $550k at auction, while a number of the other contenders recently fired bullets, notably the $250k purchase X Y PRIME, who blazed THIS half from the gate in 46.63 last month. However, CRUDO has a pedigree, price tag and work tab to suggest that he could be above average - likely why he was recently nominated for the Triple Crown - and with Pletcher having gone 5-for-15 (33%; $3.13 ROI) with first-time-starters in dirt MSWs at GP over the last two months, he might just prove to be too good for this group. Furthermore, if you then add in the fact that over the last year, Pletcher and Velasquez have gone 6-for-22 (26%; 68% ITM; $2.27 ROI) with first time starters in all MSW races on the dirt, he looks at the very least a must use.

Santa Anita R5 - OC50k/SAL50k (1 Mile, Turf): #6 KAHURARU

Trainer: Jonathan Thomas

Jockey: Umberto Rispoli

Morning line odds: 8/1

The early PK5 at Santa Anita today rounds out with a competitive starter allowance going one mile on the turf, where we might be able to eke out some value from an interesting contender in KAHURARU.

It’s fair to say that, owing for the fact that she’s an unbelievably well bred $425k daughter of WOOTTON BASSETT, closely related to the mightily talented French Champion of yesteryear, PEINTRE CELEBRE, KAHURARU hasn’t quite lived up to be what connections had hoped she’d be. She’s now a 4-year-old with only two career starts to her name and in for a tag of $50k. No bueno when she cost almost half-a-mil. However, regardless of the fact that she was ultimately a bad purchase, she still looks live in this spot.

You see, following her maiden breaking victory on debut last year, in which she took plenty of money, was sent off at odds of 8/5 and duly obliged with a 71 Beyer, it was then 191-days before she returned to action in a competitive N1X allowance here on opening day at Santa Anita.

That race has worked out well, with two horses coming back to win next out including SHOCKING GREY, who won a $125k stake on Cal Cup Day next time. Considering that it was KAHURARU’s first start off the layoff and first start against winners, you could say that, having been beaten just 5 3/4 lengths at the wire, it wasn’t a bad effort. However, WATCH THAT RACE, and you’ll see how John Velasquez gave her a tap on the shoulder going into the first bend, was animated on her down the back stretch, and then did very little on her down the lane. It was actually remarkable that she was only beaten 5 3/4 lengths, because she looked unmotivated throughout and when clearly not in with a shot of winning, Velasquez became unmotivated himself, exasperating the margin of defeat.

For all the world, KAHURARU looked to be crying out for a pair of blinkers last time. And (hey-presto!) that’s exactly what she gets today - blinkers on! That should help her drastically, as should the fact that not only will she strip fitter for today’s contest with that comeback run now behind her, but also the fact that she’s taking a significant drop in class. With all these factors in play, one can assume that she’s going to run an improved race and speed figure today - not something you can say about many of her rivals - and if she does, she should have a solid chance. To aid her further, she also picks up Umberto Rispoli for the first time - he’s 3-for-5 ($2.36 ROI) in turf routes with Thomas - and together, they project to sit an ideal stalking trip from gate six. Furthermore, we shouldn’t forget that Thomas’ exceptional run of form in California is still in motion: over the last three months, he’s gone 9-for-28 with all his runners in California (32%; $2.82 ROI), while he also has a 17-for-66 (26%; $2.05) record when applying blinkers to turf routers. At 8/1 on the ML, KAHURARU looks a live player to include on your tickets.

Tampa Bay Downs R4 - OC 75k/N1X Allowance (1 Mile, Turf): #2 PRETTY LAVISH

Trainer: Graham Motion

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr

Morning line odds: 3/1

Chad Brown and Flavien Prat went four-for-four together at Tampa last week and could very well do the same again today. In the fourth - an OC 75k/N1X allowance going one mile on the turf - they go to battle with the 8/5 favorite, FORWARDLY DEPLOYED - a $880k 3-year-old daughter of WAR FRONT, who’s dropping out of stakes company with lasix going on for the first time. No doubt, FORWARDLY DEPLOYED is the horse to beat in this spot and she’ll likely be a single for many players in the early PK5. However, she hasn’t run faster than a 70 Beyer yet and isn’t exactly a superstar which therefore, may lead you to take a second look at the fascinating European shipper, PRETTY LAVISH.

Now, first of all, let’s quickly address the elephant in the room. A lot of you will be aware that I’m an assistant and exercise rider for Graham Motion and yes, while PRETTY LAVISH isn’t a regular ride of mine, I have sat on her numerous times. But, before you jump to conclusions, let me be clear that I’m not writing about her here because I think she’s necessarily a superstar in the making, who we should all pile in on and single on our tickets. What I do think though is that she’s nice enough to be competitive and, having come from Europe, that she’s an intriguing contender.

Firstly, there’s her pedigree. Although she only cost €6k as a yearling, you don’t have to do much digging to find that she has some exceptionally strong relations, with her second dam being a half-sister to 2011 Epsom Derby (G1) winner and now prominent sire, POUR MOI, G1 runner up GAGNOA, listed stake winner KISSED, and G3 winner DAWN PATROL. Those are some serious bloodlines. And then there’s the talent that she’s already shown in just one career start on the track in Ireland, whereby she broke her maiden stylishly by 1 1/4-lengths at odds of 20/1 in a fifteen runner affair going 1 1/16-miles at Gowran Park. She won authoritatively that day and wasn’t beating trees either - the second-through-fourth place finishers have official ratings in Ireland of 74, 75 and 82, all of which are very respectable.

Having been privately purchased by Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Bobby Flay following that maiden breaking debut in October, the daughter of RIBCHESTER shipped stateside and began to settle into her new surroundings with the Motion team at Palm Meadows Training Centre. Pleasingly, she seemed to take everything in her stride, however, she wasn’t particularly shining in her breezes until last week, when she drilled a half-mile with GSP performer THREE PRIESTS, and the lightbulb went on. She traveled powerfully though the work, changed leads professionally, was better balanced around the bends (which are much sharper than those in Europe), and she galloped out nicely too. It was a classy work that should have put her spot on for today’s contest and made one think that, as she’s well-bred and one-for-one in her career, she could possibly be able to threaten the favorite today. The fact that Irad is getting aboard can only be seen as a positive, as is the fact that with foreign shippers in non-stakes races over the last two years, Motion has a record of 5-for-16 (31%; $4.07 ROI).

Nobody knows quite what to expect from PRETTY LAVISH today; there are so many factors at play when dealing with foreign shippers. However, her pedigree, work-tab, overseas form and connections provide plenty of things to like about her chances and so, while the favorite looks tough, I’ll be going two deep.

ITM Eye-catchers

Recent eye-catchers BURNHAM SQUARE ($10.60), RIVER THAMES ($3.40), TENMA ($2.40) and THE WARDEN ($13.40) all scored over the past weekend. So, make sure to keep your eyes peeled for these former ITMEs with entries this weekend.

Saturday

• SA R7: ATITLAN

Sunday

• GP R1: HURRICANE EXPRESS

• GP R4: VERSUS

• SA R3: OMNIPONTET

One Last Thing…

Back on January 24, Tampa played host to a noteworthy maiden breaking performance when FLIGHTLINE’s half sister, FLIGHT OF FANCY, got off the mark at the second attempt for trainer Bill Mott.

Two weeks later, and Mott could be writing similar headlines again, as he unleashes another blue-blooded maiden at the track, this time being the $1m son of nine-time G1 winning champion, SONGBIRD, MCCORVEY, who’s set to line up in today’s seventh.

With CURLIN on the top side of the pedigree, Junior Alvarado in the plate and a bullet workout behind him, there are plenty of things to like about MCCORVEY’s chances in this two-turn contest. I mean, a $1m son of SONGBIRD going out for top connections in a MSW at Tampa. He’s a lock, right? Well, I’m not so sure. Because not only will he have to turn away two Todd Pletcher trained horses, two Chad Brown trained horses, and a $875k Brad Cox trainee, but he’ll also have to overcome the fact that SONGBIRD’s two other foals, RUMOURS HAVE IT and MAGICAL SONG, are a combined 0-for-9 with a top Beyer of 78 - not exactly you’d expect from offspring of such a heralded champion. Furthermore, if MCCORVEY is to win today, he’ll also have to overcome the fact that over the last year, Bill Mott has gone 0-for-32 with first time starters in two turn races.

So, what do you do with him? He’s 3/1 on the morning line and for SONGBIRD’s sake, boy I’d love him to win. But can you really support MCCORVEY with those stats? Let me know in the comments.

Good luck to everyone having a wager on Saturday!