Horses to Follow - Saturday, December 14, 2024

By Will Humphrey

All three horses to follow, plus three further ITM eye-catchers found the winners’ circle last week. So, on what is set to be another high-quality, action-packed Saturday of racing featuring no less than twenty-one stake races across nine different tracks, here are several more intriguing horses to consider using in your wagers. Good luck!

Gulfstream, R7 - MSW (6f, 2YO, Dirt): #8 GOSGER

Trainer: Brendan Walsh

Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

Morning line odds: 4/1

Anyone who listened to Steve Byk’s show on Tuesday (can I mention another podcast in these lines?) will have heard Todd Pletcher hyping up the chances of his first time starter, MAJORCA, in the seventh at Gulfstream Park today - a 2YO MSW going six furlongs on the dirt. And as a precociously bred son of VOLATILE (21% w/ FTS 2yos), MAJORCA is undoubtedly worthy of respect; however, he may not be able to go with Brendan Walsh’s debutant, GOSGER.

The first thing I want to do is highlight and expand upon GOSGER’s pedigree. By NYQUIST, who hits at 17% with first time starting 2YOs, he’s out of the un-raced TAPIT mare, GLORIA S, making him a half-brother to five winners including GSP performer ARCHIE THE GIZA, as well as G1 winning turf router, HARVEY’S LIL GOIL, who earned $899k in just fourteen career starts. One of GOSGER’s five siblings broke their maiden on debut, while another two of them got off the mark second-out, so there’s a nice degree of precocity in the family as well as the obvious talent. Jump back a generation, and you’ll find that GOSGER’s dam, although un-raced, was not only a half sister to two-time G3 winner GOLDEN AWARD but also, the heralded 2012 Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness S. (G1) champion, I’LL HAVE ANOTHER. I enjoy trying to find the ‘sexiest’ pedigrees on any given day, and since this guy is a half to a G1 winner, out of a half to I’LL HAVE ANOTHER, I’d say that he’s the winner of Saturday’s ‘sexiest pedigree’ competition.

Lots of smartly bred horses turn out to be duds though, so how’s he been working, I hear you ask? Well, impressively would be one way to describe it. The PPs show that he brings some fast works into this debut but it’s the way he’s been going about his morning work that has been the exciting thing; he’s working fast and seemingly doing so with the upmost ease. If you have a free XBTV account, you can see both of his two recent bullet gate drills here (47.95) and here (48.25) at Palm Meadows Training Centre, where he powers away from his workmates with big, strong strides before galloping out purposefully, looking as if he’s more than ready for this debut.

GOSGER’s trainer, Brendan Walsh, has encouragingly had a strong start to the meet also and when given the ammunition, is more than capable of firing with debuting 2YOs - especially when Gaffalione is in the irons. In fact, with all first out 2YO sprinters, Walsh hits at 14% with a $2.62 ROI; when focusing specifically on those ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, that strike rate improves to 19% (7-for-36) with a $3.88 ROI. Sometimes, jockeys do make a difference.

Whether or not you want to get financially invested in this MSW is up to you. From the info we have to work with though, I reckon that big things are expected of the tremendously well bred GOSGER and considering that Pletcher likes his debutant as well, this should be a maiden race worth watching.

Tampa Bay Downs, R10 - N1X Allownce (1 Mile, 3YO+ F&M, Turf): #4 SCARLET POPPY

Trainer: Wesley Ward

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Morning line odds: 3/1

Wesley Ward and Junior Alvarado have teamed up just nine times in the last five years, yielding four winners (44%) and a $2.00 ROI of $6.68. In the last race at Tampa Bay Downs today - a N1X allowance going one mile on the turf - they could easily strengthen those stats further, courtesy of SCARLET POPPY.

Purchased for 800,000 GNS as a yearling at the 2022 Tattersalls October Book 1 sales in England, SCARLET POPPY is a daughter of British Classic winner NIGHT OF THUNDER and hailsfrom the same family as MGSW and G1 placed performer, TARIQ; G3 winning sprinters SNAZZY JAZZY and ROSS CASTLE; and CALIFORNIA TEN, who won a listed stake in Ireland, prior to being sold to Hong Kong where he amassed over $700,000 in purses. With such a lofty price tag and strong bloodlines behind her, it would appear disappointing that Ward’s trainee took five attempts to break the maiden. However, I’d argue that she’s yet to run a bad race.

On debut, going 1 1/16 miles at Keeneland, she pulled too hard while pressing a suicidal pace and ultimately did well to hold on for fourth beihind SHIRL’S SlEIGHT’s lil sis, READY FOR SHIRL, who became a ‘TDN Rising Star’ in victory. In second that day finished future G3 winner PIN UP BETTY and in third, future G2 winner SPALIDAY. Second out, Ward cut SCARLET POPPY back to six furlongs at BAQ where she ran with enormous credit once again but this time, bumped into future stakes placed sprinter, RISK THRESHOLD. Third start and she became an ITM eye-catcher, having suffered the most sickening trip in a race where, having been beaten less than four lengths while remaining under a hammer lock through the entire stretch, she should really have broken her maiden cozily. Next out she got pinched badly and had to steady out the gate in a MSW at Kentucky Downs, leaving her to face an insurmountable task if she were to win, beforethen she finally got the job done in start five last time; having pressed an honest pace over six furlongs at BAQ, she then drew off with energetic strides to score by over two lengths.

Now, typically, I’m wary of siding with horses who have just broken their maiden and are now making their first start against winners - often their biggest challenge - and I’d be even more wary of siding with one who took five starts to do so. However, having already bumped into a number of bonafide stakes caliber horses and also suffered two tough trips that cost her any shot at winning as a post time favorite, it feels as if SCARLET POPPY, who is bred and was purchased to be a stakes quality filly, is better than her race record suggests. We may not have seen the best of her yet and as she now stretches out to one mile, which both her running style and the large amount of stakes quality turf routing form in her pedigree suggests will see her in a good light, she could easily take a significant step forward today. Ward, who over the last two years has gone 8-for-26 (31%) when stretching runners out from sprints to routes, posting a $2.06 ROI, seemingly believes that the additional yardage will bring about improvement as welland as she already possesses some of the fastest speed figures and strongest form in this race, she could therefore be tough to beat. I envisage her sitting a perfect forward/stalking trip towards the rail under Alvarado and hopefully, she’ll extend the strong recent run of ITM eye-catchers.

Turfway, R7 - Holiday Cheer Turfway Park Synthetic Championship S. (6f, 3YO+, Synthetic): #1 HOWARD WOLOWITZ

Trainer: Jose D’Angelo

Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo

Morning line odds: 5/2

In similar fashion to the idea of being against horses who have just broken their maiden in their last start, I’d also typically be wary of betting horses exiting Breeders’ Cup races before the turn of the year. The shipping, the fact that the horses are away from home for over a week, the intensity of the build-up, the lung-busting efforts that the horses put in and then the shipping back home - it’s an awful lot for horses to recover from quickly, especially if they’ve been running hard since the start of the year. Furthermore, Breeders’ Cup contenders are conditioned to peak at the start of November, often, if not given ample time to recover, resulting in a regressed effort in their following start. However, despite the fact that Jose D’Angelo’s HOWARD WOLOWITZ competed in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at Del Mar last month, he could be an exception to the ‘regressed effort rule’, and in the seventh at Turfway tonight - a $250k stake going six panels on the synthetic - he looks worthy of significant respect.

The $240k son of MUNNINGS became an ITM eye-catcher in August when backing up his wide margin maiden breaking romp (92 Beyer) over the Gulfstream Park synthetic with better-than-looks fourth in the Mahoney S. at Saratoga. A clean trip, and he’d arguably have won that day - impressive considering it was just his third career start, first start on turf, and his stakes debut. Pleasingly, he then rewarded readers of ITM’s weekly eye-catchers segment by solidifying himself as a top-class turf sprinter, winning the Franklin-Simpson S. (G1) at Kentucky Downs next out (97 Beyer), in doing so, also booking his ticket to Del Mar.

Personally, having then had the chance to see D’Angelo’s imposing trainee in the flesh in California, I thought that he was wildly overpriced for the Turf Sprint, and explained why somewhere in this Monster Pod segment with PTF. Now, on the face of it, having finished ninth of eleven at odds of 17/1, it would appear that he was indeed over his head, that the general public had the right idea, and I was wrong - which I was. However, when you watch the replay of that race, you can see that at the top of the bend, Prat has to check him so sharply that they are knocked completely off stride, flung out into the center of the track and ultimately, lose all chance as they end up stone cold last. It’s exceptionally hard to overcome trouble in any turf sprint, never mind at the Breeders’ Cup and you can easily give a mulligan for the effort. Following the trouble, he then wasn’t hard ridden by Prat in the stretch and frankly, did well to finish as close as he did.

And that’s partly why he could be and exception to the post Breeders’ Cup regressed-effort rule; Prat wasn’t hard on him late and he didn’t have nearly as hard a race as he could have done. Furthermore, that was only his fourth start of the year - he’s not yet running on tired legs longing for a break - and if you watch his recent, post Breeders’ Cup workouts, he certainly doesn’t look as if the trip took anything out of him. In fact, if you watch this workout from last Saturday, when he breezed in 47.70 on the dirt, you could argue he’s training better than ever, especially if comparing it to his last workout before he won the G1 in Kentucky, where he doesn’t look nearly as strong through the wire, nor does he gallop out with such zest. It seems as though we’ll be seeing the best of HOWARD WOLOWITZ tonight.

The rail draw may be off putting to some, however, with a clean break, he has enough early zip to adopt a prominent stalking position against this group and if not, he’s proven he can come from behind anyway. So, if Jaramillo, who is 4-for-9 (44%; $5.56 ROI) with D’Angelo in stakes races, can just work out a trip along the rail, the pair shouldn’t have any excuses. He’s proven on the synthetic, proven over the distance and as he’s only had five starts, he retains the potential to improve past this group. Oh, and it’s also worth noting that D’Angelo is 6-for-20 (30%) in sprints at Turfway Park, boasting a $2.17 ROI.

In this type of race, would I want to be hammering him to win at a short price or singling him on any horizontal tickets? Probably not. However, he fits squarely with this group, is clearly a very, very talented sprinter, and for all the reasons outlined above, looks as if he will be showing his true colors tonight. Without question, he’s a morning line favorite that I’ll be keeping onside as opposed to trying to beat.

ITM Eye-catchers

Former ITM Eye-catchers, TENMA ($7.00), MUHIMMA ($2.80), and EARHART ($2.50) all scored last Saturday (what a chalk fest that was!). So, make sure to give these runners some consideration today, all of whom have recently been identified in Monday’s newsletter as horses to keep onside…

• GP R8: RANDOM HARVEST

• GP R11: PALM TREE

• TAM R10: SCARLET POPPY

• TP R7: HOWARD WOLOWITZ

One Last Thing…

Before we go, I also just want to highlight one more runner who fascinates me in the eighth at Gulfstream Park today - The Tropical Park Oaks - a 1 1/16m stake for 3YO fillies on the turf.

A beautifully bred listed winner and G3 placed performer from Europe, who also finished fifth beaten just two lengths in a hot renewal of the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (G1) in France this year, it goes without saying that SEE YOU AROUND is a talented filly, and her profile suggests that at sometime, she’ll be winning stakes races in America. Therefore, it was slightly surprising that when making her stateside debut for Christophe Clement in the Pebbles S. (G3) at Aqueduct last month, she didn’t take a whole ton of money and didn’t do a whole ton of running either. Maybe she just needed that last run?

Whatever the case, the interesting thing about her chance today is that she now picks up Irad Ortiz, Jr, who one would imagine has opted to ride her over the Todd Pletcher trained, LIFE’S AND AUDIBLE, who he has ridden in all of her seven lifetime starts including to success in the Sweetest Chant S. (G3) this February, and who, even off the layoff, you’d have thought held a strong chance.

We hear time and again that we shouldn’t read too much into jockey bookings, and at around 7/2, I personally have no interest in betting SEE YOU AROUND to win off her last effort. However, her European form really is of G1 quality and it’s no secret that the European turf horses are typically a tick above their American counterparts. With the top jock now getting aboard and some USA experience behind her, I wouldn’t be surprised if she were to go well today.

Good luck to everyone having a wager on Saturday!