Horses to Follow - Saturday, August 31, 2024

By Will Humphrey

By Will Humphrey ©

A few juicy priced horses to consider using in your Saturday wagers. Good luck!

Kentucky Downs, Race 8: #3 NAVY SEAL (20/1 ML)

If you enjoy a challenge, you are going to love handicapping Saturday’s $3.1m Nashville Derby Invitational Stakes (G3) at Kentucky Downs, where an overflow field has been entered for the 1 5/16-mile test. The morning line is tepidly headed by British raider, #6 BELLUM JUSTUM (7/2 ML), who won an Epsom Derby trial in April, before finishing 7th behind CITY OF TROY in the big one. Andrew Balding’s trainee has subsequently put in two monster efforts to hit the board in G3 events at Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood, and with Dettori climbing aboard, he certainly warrants his spot at the top of the market. Quite honestly though, a case could be made for almost every runner in the line up, and at a big price, it may be worth taking a second look at Wesley Ward’s, NAVY SEAL. 

Previously trained by Aidan O’Brien, NAVY SEAL possesses a jaw-dropping European pedigree, and one which should stand him in good stead for Saturday’s race. By DUBAWI, the Coolmore bred 3yo colt is the second foal out of O’Brien’s 2018 Belmont Oaks Invitational Stakes (G1) winner, ATHENA, making him a half brother to two-time GSW and G1 placed performer, NEVER ENDING STORY. ATHENA herself, is a direct sibling to three individual GSWs, while her own dam (NAVY SEAL’s second dam), CHERRY HINTON, is a half-sister to eight individual stakes winners, including G1 winners and now leading sires, GALILEO and SEA THE STARS. 

NAVY SEAL ran well in top level European contests as a 2yo in 2023 and was by no means disgraced when he finished 5th on the dirt in this year’s UAE Derby (G2), won by future Kentucky Derby (G1) show finisher, FOREVER YOUNG. 

Having moved to America to further his career on this side of the pond with Wesley Ward, NAVY SEAL disappointed as the 4/5 favorite in the Canterbury Derby when making his first start in America. That race was washed off the turf though, providing a legitimate excuse for him, and when you also consider the vast amount of traveling that he had done in the months leading up to the race, a mulligan can be given for the effort. 

We last saw the son of DUBAWI when he returned to his preferred surface in a competitive 1 1/16 mile, OC 80k/N1X-N allowance at Saratoga, July 27. After being pinched slightly at the break, NAVY SEAL was sent forward to settle two lengths off the pace, where he traveled powerfully throughout, stalking honest fractions of 23.69 and 48.18. While still under a firm hold, his rider patiently rode the rail on the turn for home before guiding NAVY SEAL into the clear upon straightening and asking him for his kick, which was instant. NAVY SEAL stuck his nose in front and briefly looked to be home and hosed, only to be passed in the final couple of jumps by the very talented, WEST HOLLYWOOD. Despite the fact that he sat close a swift pace that ultimately set up well for closers, NAVY SEAL managed to hold all bar one of his rivals off and hit the line hard in second place, galloping out well and improving his Beyer to an 82. It was a very encouraging effort from Ward’s trainee, which should have set him up nicely for Saturday’s race. 

Now making his third start of the form cycle and stretching out in distance (which based on his last race and pedigree, should bring about the best in him), NAVY SEAL has the potential to step forward again here under leading European ride, Jamie Spencer, who won the G3 Mint Million Stakes here last year. With a short run to the first turn, low drawn horses are always at an advantage over this distance at KY Downs, so he’s landed a perfect draw in gate three (gates 1-3 won at 45% over this distance in 2022) and he can use his tactical speed to establish a forward/stalking position, which has time and again proven to be the place to be at this track. His experience at European tracks will give an advantage over a number of his rivals, and following two maintenance breezes since his last start, he looks to be be arriving here fresh and ready to fire for Ward (20% at KY Downs in last five years). 

Having been considered worthy of competing in G1 events for O’Brien in Europe, NAVY SEAL clearly has a wealth of talent, and his connections obviously believe that he’s up to this level. He brings one of the fastest last out TUS speed figures (113) into this race yet remains unexposed on this side of the pond and open to further improvement. It seems that we are yet to see the best of him in America and this looks the race where he can bring his A-game.   

Saratoga, Race 11: #9 STRONG STATE (12/1 ML)

Two-year-old fillies will tackle 7f in the Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes at Saratoga on Saturday, where STRONG STATE looks to be providing some value. 

Having been purchased for only $18,000 at the January 2023 Keeneland HOAA Sale, connections got something of a bargain for this daughter of freshman sire TOM’S D’ETAT, as she actually has a very deep pedigree. Her first dam KRAM, is a three time stakes winning COLONEL JOHN mare, who herself is a half-sister to five time stakes winner NET GAIN, as well as listed stake winner CAT FIVE ‘O. STRONG STATE’s granddam failed to break her maiden, however, she is a sibling to five winners and two black-type performers, while her own dam (STRONG STATE’s third dam), STORMY PICK, was a five time stake winner who actually won the Spinaway Stakes (G1) back in 2000.

Although STRONG STATE was beaten on debut by the re-opposing #2 SHERBINI (8/1 ML), Al Stall’s trainee shaped with plenty of promise at odds of 18/1. Having been steadied at the start from her inside post, she found herself six lengths off the pace and in behind horses, seemingly facing an uphill battle. Unlike a lot of 2yo debutants though, she took the kickback like a seasoned pro and flew home in between horses with the fastest closing sectionals to finish second. In start number two, here at Saratoga on July 11, STRONG STATE again drew the inside post, but this time got away much cleaner and was sent to the lead under today’s rider, Irad Ortiz. Having locked horns with Brad Cox’s, WILL NOT BE SWAYED, at the top of the stretch, STRONG STATE efficiently switched leads, opened up her stride, and displayed a tremendously determined attitude to win by a neck. Despite that fact that the race was slowly run early on, the final time for the 5 1/2f was still 0.26 seconds faster than the following race, a 5 1/2f OC 45k/N2X allowance, won by stake winner, SUNDAY GIRL.

Her recent win did come in a race was restricted to horses who were sold or an RNA for $50,000 or less in their most recent sale, and so questions may be raised about the strength of the form. However, STRONG STATE visually looked like a very classy filly and the 77 Beyer that she earned backs up the effort (second fastest in Saturday’s race).

She may not be the ‘sexy horse’ in this edition of the Spinaway, but STRONG STATE comes here battle hardened and unlike a number of her rivals, she has shown the ability to pass horses while taking kickback - a huge asset in a race of this nature. Her attitude cannot be faulted and based on both her pedigree and the way she has shaped in her prior starts, she looks sure to relish this extra distance. With tactical versatility from gate nine, Irad should be able to position her wherever he sees fit and potentially take back a little off the pace, which could easily collapse. 

Al Stall is having a superb Saratoga meet, sending out four winners from nine starters (44%, $2.96 ROI), and he has had STRONG STATE training extremely well in preparation for this race; she looks to be primed for another big run.

When you factor in that Irad has won four of the last nine renewals of the Spinaway, this filly really does have a lot going for her, and at a decent price, it could be dangerous to leave her off your ticket. 

Del Mar, Race 11: #2 HALFWAY LINE (15/1 ML)

The Grade 2 Del Mar Mile Stakes rounds out a blockbuster card at Del Mar on Saturday, where #3 DU JOUR (8/5 ML) and #9 FIRST PEACE (3/1 ML) will dominate the wagering and are undoubtedly the two to beat. If you’re looking for a juicy price to spice up your tickets though, it’s worth taking a look at the potential up-and-comer, HALFWAY LINE. 

Originally trained in France, the Juddmonte bred 4yo son of ZOFFANY had reached a high level back over the pond, posting a record of 3-2-1 from only 6 starts, including a 3/4 length defeat in the Prix Matchem Stakes at Saint Cloud, in which, he beat MAKE ME KING, who finished only 3 3/4 lengths behind Charlie Appleby’s NAVAL POWER in a G2 at Meydan (Dubai).

HALFWAY LINE’s American debut was somewhat underwhelming in May, as he could finish no better than 8th in a field of 9 as the 5/2 favorite, earning a Beyer of 67. Cut back to 6 1/2f for his second start, he fared much better over what appeared to be an inadequate distance, improving his Beyer 5 points to finish 4th, despite a troubled trip. Back out to a route of ground last time out, and he finally put it all together, showing us what he can really do in what was a very taking performance.

Breaking cleanly from gate seven of twelve in an OC 40k/N1X allowance over today’s C&D, HALFWAY LINE traveled sweetly in mid-pack and could have been called the winner at the 1/4 pole, as his rider was sitting motionless while his rivals were all starting to feel the effects of a swift early tempo. After finding a beautiful gap upon straightening, HALFWAY LINE reeled in the leaders with ease, and under only mild urging was able to put the race to bed with authority, crossing the wire 2 1/4 lengths in front before galloping out well. 

Although he raced off the pace that day, he wasn’t all that far behind some very spicy fractions and so for him to still be traveling with so much power turning in was impressive. He oozed class and professionalism by only ever doing enough and not wasting unnecessary energy by over racing, yet he was still very willing to give his best effort when asked. He seemingly had more to offer late on, but the Beyer still came back at a spicy 95, (Beyer speed figure pattern now reads 67, 82, 95), and as he remains somewhat unexposed in America, who’s to say that he’s stopped improving just yet? 

Since that last start, D‘Amato’s trainee has put in a number of impressive workouts alongside GSW BALNIKHOV, as well as Saturday’s rival, #4 ALMENDARES (10/1 ML). One of those breezes was a bullet 5/8-mile turf work, in which, HALFWAY LINE started out a good four lengths behind the aforementioned pair, before easily breezing up and alongside them three wide in impressive style. He was clocked for the work in a minute flat, which was the fastest of the three, and could easily have been regarded as the best of the group. 

The rider switch to Kyle Frey is an interesting one and could be taken as a negative, however, there’s often a lot of politics involved in these decisions, and it might just have been that Berrios couldn’t get off of #8 CONCLUDE (6/1 ML), who he has ridden in his last four starts, including a win in the Del Mar Derby (G2). Frey (21% with D’Amato, $2.00 ROI) is a perfectly able deputy anyway, and from gate two, he should be able to once again sit an ideal ground saving trip in mid-pack. 

D’Amato has won three of the last eight running of this race and knows a good turf horse when he sees one. He clearly believes that HIGHWAY LINE is up to this challenge and with the potential to improve again, he shouldn’t be underestimated. 

*Pedigree Play*

• Del Mar, Race 1: #6 MARGARITA GIRL (5/2 ML)

As expected for a MSW at Del Mar, all seven runners in the Saturday opener have pedigrees to suggest that they could be above average, including Mark Glatt’s, MARGARITA GIRL. 

A $575,000 two-year-old purchase owned by Saints or Sinners or Rancho Temescal Thoroughbred Partners, MARGARITA GIRL is sired by G1 winning stallion, TWIRLING CANDY, who won all of his first four career starts and has offloaded that precocity onto his offspring (18% as first out 2yo’s; 11% all sire average). On the dam’s side of the pedigree, you will find that MARGARITA GIRL is the first foal out of the un-raced UNCLE MO mare, MY DAY, who herself is a out of a half-sister to listed stake winner VERTIFORMER and two time G3 winner WAR CORRESPONDENT, as well as Aidan O’Brien’s two time G1 winning turf router, DECLARATION OF WAR, who shipped over to America and finished 3rd to MUCHO MACHO MAN in the 2013 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1). Going further back in the pedigree, you will also discover that MARGARITA GIRL’s third dam, TEMPO WEST, is/was a half-sister to 2012 Belmont Stakes winner, UNION RAGS. How about that for a family!

Mark Glatt has been having a fantastic Del Mar meet, hitting at 19% (13/68, $2.02 ROI), and he has pumped plenty of conditioning into MARGARITA GIRL, who looks to have inherited some of her family’s precocity and talent. She comes into this race with four bullet workouts, including back-to-back 59.60 second 5/8-mile gate drills and looks more than ready for this debut. 

Antonio Fresu (24% with Glatt, $2.19 ROI) has been booked for the ride on MARGARITA GIRL and with an ideal draw in gate six, he should be able to maneuver her into whichever position he sees fit, working out a good clean trip. 

Based on her purchase price, pedigree, workouts and connections, everything points towards a big debut effort from this filly. In a race where the market is being made by a vulnerable favorite (USHA has been turned over at odds on in both starts), MARGARITA GIRL can cause the upset.