Horses to Follow - October 12, 2024

By Will Humphrey

The second Saturday of what has already been a superb Keeneland Fall Meet is upon us, with a ten-race program highlighted by the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes. Here are five horses to consider using in your wagers. Good luck!

Keeneland Race 2 - 2yo MSW (1 1/16 Miles, Turf): #10 EXECUTIVE

Trainer: Bill Mott

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Morning line odds: 7/2

It’s fair to say that Chad Brown doesn’t tend to debut his future stars at Kentucky Downs and following what was only a so-so performance there last month, GOVERNING PARTY appears a vulnerable ML favorite for this oversubscribed MSW. Without any other obvious standouts in opposition, this is a great opportunity for Bill Mott’s beautifully bred $900k purchase, EXECUTIVE, to get off the mark at the second attempt. 

A Pin Oak Stud LLC owned son of CONSTITUTION, you’ll struggle to find a deeper pedigree than EXECUTIVE’s; his dam is a half sister to GSP performer, VIRGINIA ELOISE, and his third dam is a daughter of G3 winner MISS MACY SUE, making her a half sister to four stakes winners, including G3 winner/2016 BC Juvenile (G1) runner-up and now leading sire, NOT THIS TIME, as well as MGS/2015 BC Dirt Mile winner (G1) and also a now leading sire, LIAM’S MAP. No wonder EXECUTIVE cost $900k at auction!

Mott’s trainee will be making just his second lifetime start on Saturday following an eye-catching debut at Saratoga, in which, he closed strongly from rear to be beaten less than two lengths by EARLY ADAPTOR, who came back to finish a troubled third in the Pilgrim Stakes (G3) next time. EXECUTIVE showed greenness that day, lunging at the gate and trailing early, before becoming unbalanced on multiple occasions and racing in behind the bridle through the first half of the contest. The further he went though, the better he got. He still had plenty of ground to make up turning for home, but when Alvarado eventually got him situated to the point in which he could really get busy on him inside the final furlong, the penny seemed to drop. Shown daylight in the centre of the track, the big bay colt sprouted wings and passed multiple rivals, with track announcer, Frank Mirahmadi, crying at the wire, “EXECUTIVE, finished with a flourish to get third!” He then went ahead and galloped out strongly in front of the field, indicating that he has far more ability than his Beyer speed figure of 60 would suggest. 

Having left so much room for improvement at Saratoga, it would be disappointing if he didn’t take a significant step forward with that run and experience now behind him. You can expect to see him traveling better through the early stages of the race, putting himself into a winning position earlier, and taking less time to find top gear - all of which would be natural improvements for a second out 2yo to make. Considering that his 60 Beyer already the fastest in the main body of the field, that could make him tough to beat. He should also get an honest pace to run at. 

With Mott hitting at 26% with second out 2yo’s who previously finished ITM on debut, in what looks a very winnable race on paper, EXECUTIVE is a solid choice at around 7/2 and with bloodlines such as his, he could be one to watch going forward. 

Keeneland Race 6 - OC 100k/N3X (6 1/2f, Dirt): #5 CYCLONE MISCHIEF 

Trainer: Dale Romans

Jockey: Corey Lanerie

Morning line odds: 7/2

The big question in this race is just what Brad Cox’s charge, GIANT MISCHIEF, is going to bring to the table. Third in the G1 Malibu Stakes last year, he clearly sets the standard; however, he’s been off the track for 291-days, isn’t actually that far (if at all) clear on speed figures, and he’s already been turned over at odds of 4/5, 2/1 and 6/5 in his career to date. It would be dangerous to rule him out completely, but he certainly doesn’t look a favorite to be singling or hammering for win purposes and therefore, at a slightly larger price, it could be worth including an old friend on the ticket, CYCLONE MISCHIEF. 

Out of a half sister to 2016 Southwest Stakes (G3) winner and KY Derby 5th place finisher, SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS, the Dale Romans’ trained son of INTO MISCHIEF developed into a high-class dirt router as a 3yo, highlighted by third place finishes behind FORTE in both the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and Florida Derby (G1). Having then suffered a strain when finishing a tailed off 18th in last year’s KY Derby, CM had struggled to recapture his form of old around two turns, finishing no better than third in four subsequent route races, beaten a combined 57 1/2 lengths. 

So, in an attempt to get the colt back into the winner’s circle, Romans recently decided to cut his trainee back to sprint trips, despite having no speed influence in his pedigree, nor a running style to suggest that it would work. Romans clearly knew what he was doing though, as CM seems to have found a new lease of life. He kicked off his sprint campaign by massively outrunning his odds to be beaten only two lengths by GULFPORT at Churchill Downs on June 30, (despite having broken slowly and met plenty of trouble in running), before he then recorded a career best 94 Beyer, blitzing 6f in 1:08.87 to win impressively at Ellis Park, defeating G2 winner, RHYME SCHEMES. 

The concern for CM’s supporters leading into Saturday’s contest is that he seemingly took a step backwards in his last outing, finishing sixth of seven in a listed stake at Churchill Downs with a regressed Beyer of 88 and a chart comment that read, “trailed 2-3p, 4p upr, no factor”. 

Despite the class drop, an 88 Beyer probably isn’t going to win Saturday’s race, and valid questions could start to be raised about the validity of his two back 94 Beyer. However, he may simply have bounced off the big Ellis performance and easily get back on track here, while it also becomes noticeable that in his last three starts without lasix, he’s only beaten one horse home. So, if it was either the lasix or bounce that caused the regression, yet he still managed to run an 88 Beyer, isn’t he sitting on a winning race here with both of those factors absent?

Having been so visually impressive at Ellis, I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, trust that he can continue his rise through the sprinting ranks and hope that he can return to a level which should give him a square shot at victory. He’s finished first and second in his two starts at Keeneland, so clearly acts around the track, and in a race that doesn’t appear to have much speed signed on, he should sit a perfect forward/stalking trip from gate five, potentially getting the first jump on the other key players. It’s also encouraging to see that Lanerie has already banged in a couple of winners at the meet, so he’ll be riding with confidence. If the fav doesn’t show up, it could be CM that fills his void and assuming that he stays around 7/2, he’s worth a shot. 

Keeneland Race 7 - 2yo MSW (6f, Dirt): #9 MISS PHARAOH 

Trainer: Phil Simms

Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

Morning line odds: 10/1

We’ve already seen a number of large priced MSW winners at the current Keeneland meet and this race has that sort of “bombs away” feel. It could be worth getting a little creative here and therefore, at what will likely be a double-digit price, why not take a chance on MISS PHARAOH. 

As a yearling, Harris Farms saw enough in this filly to fork out $100k for her at auction; based on her morning works, that could have been a very shrewd move. She arrives here for her debut with a sparkling work tab featuring multiple bullet workouts, including a 47.00 half mile from the gate on September 10, a 46.60 half mile from the gate on September 26, and most recently, a 59.60 second 5/8 mile from the pole on October 04. 

Without knowing how aggressive an exercise rider is in a horse’s morning works - whether they are all out to achieve those fractions or sitting pretty - times can often become misleading and make a tortoise look like a hare. Thanks to the internet however, the video of MP’s 48.80 half mile work on September 17 is available for all to see here and it’s hard not to be taken by the ease with which she goes about her business. Looking more like a three-year-old than a juvenile, Phil Simm’s trainee powers her way through the stretch under an absolute hammerlock, extending her impressively long stride with the most beautiful fluency, before the rider wraps up on her crossing the wire. The workout times are impressive, but the visual impression she left was even more so. 

She’s by (you guessed it) AMERICAN PHARAOH, who wouldn’t be renowned for first out winning 2yo’s (10%) but is having a productive year with his current crop, producing 12 winners from 48 runners (25%). Meanwhile on the female side of the pedigree, you’ll find that MP is out of the stakes winning MORE THAN READY mare, MISS CHALLENGE, who herself is a half sister to MGS winning sprinter/debut winner, VENTANA, so there are some things to like there as well.  

Furthermore, it’s encouraging to note that over the least three years, in all MSW sprints, multiple graded stakes winning trainer Phil Simms’ record stands at 6-for-20 (30%) with 12 ITM finishes and a $6.45 ROI, while his record with first time starters who went off at odds of 10/1 or under is 5-for-16 (31%) with a $3.30 ROI. He wouldn’t be known for his first out winners; however, when he gets his hands on a good one, he’s more than capable of producing the goods and actually scored with a debut winner at Churchill Downs just two weeks ago.

The market will be a good guide to this filly’s chances on Saturday and be worth paying attention to but at the time of writing, with a nice draw in gate nine that’ll allow her to get forward and avoid kickback, MP looks worthy of consideration. If she was trained by Brad Cox, she’d likely be a much shorter price than she is and that’s often a good angle to take advantage of. In a race of this nature, she’s worth including on the ticket. 

Keeneland Race 8 - The G1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup S. (1 1/8 Miles, Turf): #5 SOPRANO

Trainer: George Boughey

Jockey: Billy Loughnane

Morning line odds: 7/2

Even if I remove my European bias and deep affection for CAITLINHERGRTNESS, I can’t help but thinking that SOPRANO is the one to beat in this truly fascinating renewal of the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup S.

Owned by Highclere Thoroughbred Racing, the three-year-old daughter of STARSPANGLEDBANNER has always been held in high regard by connections and did little to dissuade them of that last year, breaking her maiden on debut before hitting the board in four consecutive stakes races as a juvenile. Having then appreciated a well-deserved winter break and undergone a throat surgery last October, she’s returned in 2024 a more relaxed, improved filly and developed into a top-flight European three-year-old. 

Standout pieces of form that she has produced in 2024 include a commanding success in the thirty-runner (yes, thirty!) Sandringham Stakes at Royal Ascot; a fourth place finish in a G3 at Ascot, won by last weekend’s Prix de l'Opera Longines (G1) winner, FRIENDLY SOUL; a scintillating victory in a competitive G3 at Deauville run on soft ground in August; and most recently, a gutsy third against older horses in the Coolmore Matron Stakes (G1) at Leopardstown (Ire), where she finished less than two lengths behind 4x G1 winner and leading BC Mile (G1) contender, PORTA FORTUNA. Without question, she’s a G1 quality filly and that’s reflected by her official rating of 111 - only a couple of points below the rating that MAWJ brought over when winning this race last year. 

The big question on Saturday will be whether she can replicate that level of form around a sharp two turns in America - a question we won’t know the answer to until she tries it. However, there are plenty of indicators to suggest that she will. 

First of all, having won stakes races in two countries and become G1 placed in another, she’s proven that she can travel. She’s also proven around left-handed tracks and on firm turf, so you’d hope that the track and conditions will be no issue for her. As a strong traveler who tends to adopt a prominent position in her races, she has a running style that should suit American racing, and as she’s out of a half sister to Phil D’Amato’s 9x GS/2016 BC Turf Sprint (G1) winner, OBVIOUSLY, her bloodlines would suggest she’ll relish this test as well. Furthermore, having finished powerfully up the hill in a very strongly run race at Ascot and won over one mile on soft ground in France, she should see out this new trip just fine, as it comes around two turns on a flat and firm track.

Some bettors may be unfamiliar with both the trainer and jockey, but let me reassure you, they’re rising stars in this game. In just six years with a license, George Boughey has trained 27 stakes winners, 2x G1 winners, 1x Classic winner, he consistently hits at 17% and is currently sitting 14th in the British Trainers Championship. Meanwhile, at age 18 and after just two full seasons riding, Loughnane has been Champion Apprentice, won 272 races including 7 stakes, and he currently sits in 5th position in the British Jockeys Championship, just one spot below William Buick and well ahead of riders such as Hollie Doyle, James Doyle and Ryan Moore.

This race has been the target for SOPRANO ever since she crossed the wire in the Matron Stakes, and she’s reportedly been in superb from since arriving in America last Sunday. With a nice draw in gate five and the main speed inside of her, she should be able to relax just in behind the leaders and provided that she gets a clear stretch run, she could take some pegging back. You’d be braver than me to leave her off the ticket and if she stays around 7/2, she could be worth a win bet. 

Keeneland Race 9 - OC 80k/N2X Allowance (1 1/16 Miles, Dirt): #4 KING KUMBALAY

Trainer: Ignacio Correas

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Morning line odds: 8/1 

Following back-to-back ITM finishes in graded stake races, KOMOREBINO OMOIDE looks the horse to beat in this spot. However, there’s a concern that he’s been slightly by flattered by that form and the lofty speed figures he’s earned at Lone Star, Mountaineer and Charles Town, and he’s likely to be involved in a pace scenario here that could easily collapse on the front end. This race might not be all that straight forward for the chalk but instead, set up well for the closers. So, at a much more attractive price, why not take a second look at the six-year-old veteran, KING KUMBALAY. 

A gelded son of SHANGHAI BOBBY, KK has been moved around by owner Kingsport Farm and competed under four different trainer’s names since he debuted back in August 2021, yet consistently run well regardless. In 24 lifetime starts, he’s amassed $381k in purses through a career record of 7-6-2, that includes five 90+ speed figures, and two stake wins, both of which came in the Midlantic last year. 

Following a productive 2023 campaign that rounded out with a four length defeat by G2 winner/MG1 placed performer, CRUPI, in the Queen’s County Stakes at Aqueduct on New Year’s Eve, KK was put on the shelf for 259-days and moved back to Ignacio Correas’ barn, before he resurfaced in a Churchill Downs allowance, 27-days ago - a race that six of today’s competitors are exiting. 

A fifth-place finish in behind the re-opposing MACKMAN and BATTON ROUGE, arguably doesn’t bode well for his chances here. However, KK ran better than the bare result would suggest; having traveled well in rear, he began to roll down the centre of the track and briefly looked as if he was coming with a winning run, only to get shut off in mid stretch. For the big, long striding grinder that he is, the momentum loss made it impossible for him to regather his stride and sprint back into contention fast enough to score, yet he still finished admirably, posting faster closing sectionals than all five of his re-opposing rivals to be beaten only 3 1/2 lengths. 

Considering the troubled trip that he met last time, and the fact that he was giving away race fitness all round in that spot, he looks the one to take out of that race. You can expect that, with that run now underneath him and a cleaner trip on Saturday, he’ll be capable of improving upon the 83 Beyer that he earned last time and take a step back towards his average 2023 dirt Beyer of 89, which should give him a solid winning chance. As previously mentioned, some of the leading players could be in danger of cutting each other’s throats up front, setting it up perfectly for KK, and with Jose Ortiz retaining the ride (3-for-8; 38%; $7.04 ROI on Keeneland dirt with Correas), he looks overpriced at around 8/1. 

Good luck to everyone having a wager at Keeneland on Saturday!