Horses to Follow - December 7th, 2024

By Will Humphrey

On a high-class, action packed Saturday of racing, here are three intriguing horses, plus several recent ITM Eye-catchers to consider using in your wagers. Good luck!

Aqueduct, R9 - The Grade 2 Cigar Mile (1 Mile): #7 LOCKED

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velasquez

Morning line odds: 9/2

John Velasquez will not only be looking to win Aqueduct’s Cigar Mile for the third straight year today, but he’ll also be looking to tie Jerry Bailey’s record total of five wins in the race. To do so, he’ll be teaming up with Todd Pletcher, who himself, having conditioned six horses to win the race, holds the record for the most wins in the Cigar Mile by a trainer. It wouldn’t be too far fetched to say that the pair own this contest, and they could well scoop the prize again today courtesy of a fascinating contender in LOCKED.

We already know plenty about this lightly raced $425k son of GUN RUNNER, whose dam was a half-sister to 2x G1 winner GABBY’S GOLDEN GAL and 3x G2 winner/G1 runner-up, ALWAYS A PRINCESS. Having finished third behind future G1 placed performers JUST STEEL and BE YOU on debut last year, a race in which future G1 winner DOMESTIC PRODUCT also ran and finished fifth, LOCKED put in this dazzling display second out at Saratoga to break his maiden with a 96 Beyer, instantly vaulting himself towards the top of the two-year-old division. At odds of 3/5, he then confirmed his potential by becoming a G1 winner in the Breeders’ Futurity S. at Keeneland, before finishing third as the post time favorite behind FIERCENESS in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Without doubt, he was one of the most exciting horses heading into 2024.

So, how has the Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Walmac Farm owned colt fared as a three-year-old then? Well, he’s unbeaten, so that’s a positive. However, we’ve only had the pleasure of seeing him on the track one time, as he was laid off for 351-days with a ligament injury to his left knee after the Breeders’ Cup, before he resurfaced with this sparkling success in a BAQ allowance, 49-days ago. In that race, he beat two next out winners, barely turned a hair in earning a career best 97 Beyer, and visually, looked better than ever, striding out purposefully late on to hit the wire hard, ears pricked.

As good as the comeback effort was though, today is a going to be a different ball game altogether as he jumps back into graded stakes company. In all likelihood, he’s going to have to produce a career best to score today, the chances of him doing so could give bettors reason to take him on. However, the more optimistic of us may not see it as an insurmountable task.

First, let’s consider the fact that he’s just earned a 97 Beyer by completing 7f in 1:21.02 off almost a year long layoff, under a mild hand ride with seemingly oodles more in store. That’s impressive stuff and probably sending shivers down the spine of his rivals, especially as he didn’t have a tough, lung-busting race off the layoff or have to enter the ‘Red Zone’, as Aidan O’Brien would say, which therefore eliminates the concerns about him bouncing off a grueler. It seems almost inevitable that, with a suitably strong pace forecast for him to run at and a return to his preferred route distance, he’s going to step forward from his comeback effort. Regardless of which speed figures you use, that gives him every chance of winning. Also, consider that he brings a freshness angle in over his rivals, the majority of whom have all had long, hard campaigns that could be catching up to them, and then note that: with horses making their second starts back off 300+ day layoffs, who returned to action with a career best Beyer, Pletcher has struck at no less than 44% over the past five years (7-for-16, 12 ITM).

In a BloodHorse article following the comeback victory, Pletcher spoke about how this race would be used as a “springboard to the Pegasus”, so connections are presumably expecting LOCKED to strike gold today (the Pegasus would be a tough ask if he didn’t win here), and with his tactical versatility regarding where he sits in the race, he shouldn’t really have any excuses. Essentially, LOCKED has an awful lot going for him and with the promise of more to come, it will be exciting to see what he can offer.

Tampa Bay Downs R9 - 2YO MSW (1 Mile, Turf): #9 EVERSHED

Trainer: Arnaud Delacour

Jockey: Daniel Centeno

Morning line odds: 10/1

It’s no secret that Chad Brown’s runners, usually at a short price, tend to take some stopping in MSWs at Tampa. Over the last five years, in MSW turf races at the track, his win record stands at 33-for-99 with 71 ITM finishes - incredible stuff. And he could easily strengthen those stats today also, as he sends sends out the 5/2 ML favorite LOAN PORTFOLIO in the nightcap - a first time starting two-year-old daughter of KINGMAN, out of British G2 winner, ALYSSA, who herself is out of, and a half sibling to, three further European stake winners. It’s a strong pedigree to say the least and with Sammy Camacho up, she looks the one to beat. However, betting first out two-year-olds isn’t for everyone, and lest we forget that Brown also loses 66% of MSW races at Tampa. Therefore, at a larger price, I’d encourage you to take a look at Arnaud Delacour’s second time starting daughter of CHURCHILL, EVERSHED.

Owned by Mark Grier, this Irish bred filly has some strong bloodlines herself, being a half-sister to the French trained GSW, BAYRIR, who shipped over to Woodbine in 2012 and took the Secretariat S. (G1) for Alain de Royer-Dupré. Do a little more digging into the pedigree and you’ll find that, not only is there a copious amount of European trained stake winners such as BALAKHERI and BALIYANA, but there is also an abundance of stamina. Stamina on stamina on stamina. Therefore, it was no surprise to see EVERSHED shape as if she wanted more distance when sprinting 5 1/2f at Laurel on debut. Hammered down to odds of 2/1 that day, she lacked early speed but stayed on nicely towards the line while displaying signs greenness to eventually cross the wire in fifth, before galloping out strongly past her rivals. While leaving plenty of room for improvement in that spot, she made a nice impression, especially as no part of her pedigree, her morning drills leading into the race, nor her running style suggested that she would have any shot in a sprint.

In all likelihood, Delacour simply used that first race as a starting point to garner experience and an extra dose of fitness before stretching her out to a more suitable trip next time - a move he’s made successfully in the past. In fact, over the last five years, when stretching second time starting juveniles out from debut sprints to routes, Delacour is 5-for-12 (42%) with a $5.66 ROI. He doesn’t use the move with all of his juveniles but executes it with great success when he does. Furthermore, he also has a 28% strike rate when teaming up with Daniel Centeno at Tampa (39-for-141), and when the two of them combine with owner Mark Grier at the track, their strike rate is 57% (8-for 14), with 71% ITM finishes and a $5.41 ROI.

With her debut run now behind her, I expect that this well-bred filly, who bettors liked enough to send off as the 2/1 favorite at Laurel, will take a significant step forward today and to my eye at least, she looks to be overpriced based on a recent effort that offered little reflection of her ability. In what looks an open race to close the card, I wouldn’t be too quick to rule this filly out at a square price, especially if playing the race vertically.

Turfway Park, R8 - OC 40k/N2X Allowance (6 1/2f): #5 FINSTER

Trainer: Eoin Harty

Jockey: Vincent Cheminaud

Morning line odds: 6/1

Highlighted by FIRST RESORT’s win in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) last Saturday, Eoin Harty has been having a right old time of things lately and could extend his recent good fortune at Turfway Park this evening with FINSTER.

A thrice race son of SKY MESA, the Godolphin owned and bred three-year-old colt is out of the 2007 UAE 1000 Guineas and Oaks winner/2007 Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) third place finisher, FOLK, making him a half to GSP performer, CAPTIVATING LASS, dam of G1 winning turf router, ATONE.

It’s a pedigree chock full of talent and FINSTER has already demonstrated some of that talent himself on the racetrack. Admittedly he didn’t have to do all that much running to break his maiden at odds of 5/2 on debut at Horseshoe Indy last August, as that race was washed off the grass and quite honestly, contested by a low quality group of horses (in 85 subsequent races, the eight horses FINSTER beat that day have managed to produce just one 70+ Beyer). However, following a 363-day layoff that saw him then miss the remainder of his two-year-old campaign, he returned for what was his turf debut and only second career start in an allowance at Ellis Park this August, taking on a much more established and experienced group of rivals who had match fitness on their side. It was a tough challenge that Harty set FINSTER that day, yet at odds of 7/1, he maintained his unbeaten record with this cozy ‘stalk and pounce’ victory. For the effort, he was rewarded with an 88 Beyer - not bad for a second time starter off the bench.

He then disappointed slightly when returned to the dirt in his most recent start at Churchill Downs in September - a six furlong OC 125k/N2X allowance - however, I just can’t help but thinking that, when watching him stride out and analyzing his overall pedigree, he isn’t just a better turf horse who therefore should, like ATONE, also handle the synthetic. Having been entered for what was intended to be a turf race on debut, and then gone to the grass second out, doesn’t Harty believe he’s more of a turf horse as well? Whatever the case, it wasn’t actually a bad fifth place finish that he put in most recently anyway. The first and second returned to run 90 and 91 Beyers, respectively, the seventh-place finisher won a $75k handicap at Gulfstream next out, and the eighth-place finisher ran an 89 Beyer in victory at Keeneland. That level of form sits really well against today’s field.

He’s been scratched a couple of times since that last race though and hasn’t been seen for 80-days now, which could be cause for concern, especially as he’s also now facing a group of much more experienced rivals, a number of whom have run notably faster than him before. However, as a young, unexposed sprinter, who carries the royal blue silks of Godolphin and a pedigree such as his, he still warrants considerable respect à mon avis, especially as he’s already flashed significant signs of potential in just three starts. He’s clearly capable of running well fresh, Harty hits at 18% with horses running back in 60-90 days, and in a big field sprint at Turfway, where the pace is expected to be nothing short of blazing, he also has what appears an ideal stalking/mid-pack running style that will see him to good effect. He retains the scope to improve past his rivals as he makes his third start of the form cycle today and with the in-form Vincent Cheminaud getting aboard, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him go well here before progressing on to reach higher levels.

ITM Eye-catchers With Entries This Weekend…

Recent ITM Eye-catchers, SIENNOIS ($42.20), FIRST RESORT ($14.66), and RATED BY MERIT ($2.40) all scored last Saturday. So, make sure to give these runners some consideration today, all of whom have recently been identified in Monday’s newsletter as horses to keep onside…

• AQ R8: MUHIMMA (4/5)

• FG R6: FANCY QUALITY (3/1)

• OP R10: VOLT (8/1)

• LRC R8: TENMA (4/1)

• LRC R8: AUNT MO (4/1)

• WO R9: EARHART (1/1)

One Last Thing…

Before we go, I also just want to highlight something pretty significant happening today that could fly under the radar a little. FLIGHTLINE’s little half sister, FLIGHT OF FANCY, is set to make her debut in the fourth at Tampa Bay Downs today.

Trained by Bill Mott, the daughter of INTO MISCHIEF has been listed as the 3/1 second choice for the oversubscribed six-furlong event, following a string of works at Saratoga and more recently, Payson Park, Florida.

Off pedigree and connections alone, she warrants respect in this spot. However, the entry itself - being at Tampa as opposed to a higher profile track - and the jockey booking of Miguel Vasquez, who has ridden just seven times for Mott in the past, does provide mixed signals about her chances today. With no workout videos available either, it’s hard to know what we’re dealing with and so unless you’re privy to inside info, you’d be braver than me to get financially involved at a short price. A must watch, nonetheless.

Good luck to everyone having a wager on Saturday!