Horses to Follow - August 24th, 2024

By Will Hum

By Will Humphrey ©

A few horses to consider using in your Saturday wagers. Good luck!

Saratoga, Race 2: #6 MAIN BEACH (8/1 ML)

A high-quality field has been assembled for the first of six turf races at Saratoga on Saturday, a 1 1/16-mile OC 80k/N1X allowance, where MAIN BEACH looks to be providing value. 

A $525,000 3yo owned by CHP Racing and Drown Jeffrey, MAIN BEACH is by leading sire INTO MISCHIEF, out the $1.025m UNBRIDLED’S SONG mare, SIREN SERENADE, making him a half sibling of eight individual winners including stake winner SMART AS ME; GSP performer STELLAR SOUND; and G1 placed performer LUMINANACE. Going further back in the pedigree, you will find that MAIN BEACH’s granddam is the four-time G1 winning champion VERSAILLES TREATY, making SIREN SERENADE a half sister to Aidan O’Brien’s Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) winner, GEORGE VANCOUVER.

Already gelded and un-raced at two, Chad Brown’s trainee followed up his off-the-board debut on the dirt at Tampa, with an eye-catching runner-up effort behind a more experienced gate to wire winner over the Monmouth lawn next time. Third time proved to be the charm for the son of INTO MISCHIEF, as he continued his upward trajectory to comfortably break his maiden in front running style, June 21 (78 Beyer).

We last saw MAIN BEACH on July 27 here at Saratoga, where he was sent to post as the 4/1 third choice in another 1 1/16-mile OC 80k/N1X turf allowance. He ultimately finished 4th, however, that doesn’t tell the full story. 

Drawn in gate two under today’s rider Irad Ortiz, MAIN BEACH was shuffled back from an inside post early, finding himself 7 lengths second to last down the back stretch, (considering that he went gate to wire in his previous start, it’s highly unlikely that Irad wanted to be there). As the race started to unfold rounding the home bend, MAIN BEACH was still in second last position and under a firm from Irad, who upon straightening, decided to try for a run up the inside. MAIN BEACH never had to check out of there, but boy oh boy was it tight along the rail. So tight in fact, that Irad was never able to ask him to fully stride out and could only give him one light flick of the crop two strides before the wire - far too late when a promising talent called WEST HOLLYWOOD was flying home in the centre of the track. It was a pretty tough beat for MAIN BEACH’s supporters to swallow, because despite the fact that he was very tenderly handled by Irad and hardly allowed to run, he was only beaten a length for everything. He galloped out with his ears picked like a fresh horse, and one has to think that with a wider draw, a more forward position, and a cleaner trip, MAIN BEACH could have won. His effort was certainly better than the result and speed figure would suggest. 

Having returned to the work-tab with two maintenance 1/2-mile drills, MAIN BEACH looks to be coming into this race fresh and has a chance to make amends for his troubled last start. TUS have given this race a class rating of 113, (the exact figure MAIN BEACH earned last time), so he certainly fits with this group and as one of the less exposed runners in the line-up, he has the potential to improve again. He has already proven his tactical versatility, so in a race that looks full of speed, Irad will be able to settle him wherever he sees fit from gate six, allowing the race to unfold into his hands, and (hopefully) avoiding the same traffic trouble as last time.

This extremely well bred and promising individual has continuously improved his speed figures with each of his four starts, and there looks to be no reason why he can’t improve again. Irad and Chad Brown hit at a terrifying 28% (51/179, 65% ITM) in allowance races going long on the grass and it’s not often that we get ~8/1 on one of these runners. You have to take advantage of these situations, and so whatever you do, don’t leave MAIN BEACH off your tickets. 

Colonial, Race 4: #10 MONTADOR (5/1 ML)

Two-year-old maidens will sprint 6 1/2f on the dirt in an intriguing MSW at Colonial on Saturday, where MONTADOR can break his duck on debut. 

Owned and bred by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum’s powerful Godolphin operation and trained by Michael Stidham, the son of five-time G1 winning champion NYQUIST, is the first foal out of 2018 Glens Falls Stakes (G2) winner and G1 placed performer, LADY MONTDORE. Going further back in the pedigree, you will find that MONTADOR’s granddam was eight-time stakes winner, HYSTERICALADY, who scored in the 2007 Humana Distaff Stakes (G1) and chased home a certain ZENYATTA, in the 2008 Lady’s Secret Stakes (G1). 

As expected for a Godolphin runner, there’s a wealth of talent in the pedigree, and there’s a nice amount of precocity as well. NYQUIST broke his maiden on debut and went unbeaten in his next seven starts (including five G1’s), and he has offloaded that precocity onto his progeny, who hit at a solid 17% as first out 2yo’s (11% all sire average). LADY MONTDORE finished 3rd on debut behind two future stakes winners before breaking her maiden second out in France, while HYSTERICALADY won both of her first two career starts. What’s more, LADY MONTDORE’s half-sister, FROSTERIA, would have broken her maiden on debut by 1 3/4 lengths, had she not bumped into future three-time GSW, PRIVATE MISSION. 

Michael Stidham and Ben Curtis have been on fire at Colonial this meet, boasting a record of 9 wins from 28 starts (68% ITM, $3.21 ROI), but when you narrow their starters down to horses just owned by Godolphin, those stats improve to 4 wins from 7 starts (71% ITM, $5.94 ROI). 

Equally impressive is Stidham’s ability to ready a horse for their debut. Over the last five months, he has been hitting at an astonishing 35% with all first-time starters (6/17, 53% ITM, $3.52 ROI), and an even better 45% with 2yo first time starters (5/11, 55% ITM, $4.49 ROI). He clearly knows how to get them ready to fire on debut, and so it’s no surprise to see a deep work-tab underneath MONTADOR, which includes three 5/8-mile drills, and a bullet move on August 06. 

With plenty of stamina in the family, Saturday’s 6 1/2f distance should provide a perfect starting point for MONTADOR and he’s landed a great outside post, which will allow Curtis to work him into whichever position he sees fit outside of horses while avoiding kick-back, which could compromise the chances of his lower drawn rivals, should they break slowly and resist it. 

Based on the strength of MONTADOR’s pedigree, the strength of his connections, the strength of his work-tab and a favorable post position, MONTADOR is a tempting bet at 5/1. 

Saratoga, Race 12: #1 WORLD RECORD (8/1 ML)

Derek Ryan’s superstar sprinter, #8 BOOK’EM DANO (7/2 ML) heads the morning line for what looks set to be one of the deepest renewals of the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes (G1) in living memory. A case can be made for almost every runner in this race, including one of the most unexposed runners in the field, WORLD RECORD. 

Trained by Rodolphe Brisset for owners Sienna Farm LLC & WinStar Farm LLC, the $410,000 son of leading sire GUN RUNNER is out of the GB bred mare, MARWA, who herself is a half-sister three time stake winning dirt sprinter, GUAM TYPHOON; two time GSW dirt router SIR CHEROKEE; and three time G2 winner, MISS ISELA, who chased home SEVENTH STREET in the 2009 Go for Wand H. (G1). 

WORLD RECORD just missed by a neck on debut but made no mistake next time out, blitzing his eleven rivals in gate to wire fashion by no less than 6 1/4 lengths, posting fractions of 22.40, 44.92, 1:09.75 and crossing the wire for 7f in 1:22.71. For comparison, the earlier 6f G3 on the card, won by CLEARLY UNHINGED, was run in 1:09.69. Do the math! For a second time starter, he oozed professionalism and class, looking every part a stakes horse in the making with a very respectable Beyer speed figure of 89.

Of such superiority was his maiden breaking performance, connections pitched him straight into the Maxfield Overnight Stakes next time out. Some may argue that his 3rd place finish behind leading Pat O’Brien Stakes (G2) hopeful, RAGING TORRENT, was disappointing. However, not many horses can progress straight out of the maiden ranks to win stakes races, and it’s worth keeping in mind that the first two finishers in that race had already made a combined 16 starts between them. WORLD RECORD still followed his natural path of development though, recording an improved speed figure to a 92. 

When we last saw the son of GUN RUNNER, he was awesome again. Drawn in gate one for the 6 1/2f Amsterdam Stakes (G2), with blinkers on for the first time, WORLD RECORD sprinted through fractions of 21.77, 44.40 and 1:08.19, before pulling further clear in the stretch to hit the line hard, 6 3/4 lengths clear of the re-opposing #10 JEFFERSON STREET (12/1 ML). He stopped the clock for the distance in a TUS adjusted time of 1:14.53 and improved his Beyer again to a 101. (The joint fastest last out figure on offer in Saturday’s race).

Some may argue that WORLD RECORD was just benefiting from an inside rail bias last time. However, the exceptional performance could equally have come about because of the new equipment (blinkers), or a change in track, or the fact that it was only his fourth career start and that he is still improving with every start. Nobody can argue with the fact, that he covered the first 3/4 miles of the journey 0.09 seconds faster than NAKATOMI did when winning the Alfred G. Vanderbilt H. (G1) less than 24-hrs later, and he did it in isolation. It takes more than a rail bias for a horse to run those sectionals and still be able to draw off at the wire. 

Having trained extremely well since his last start, WORLD RECORD looks ready to bring his A-game again on Saturday, as he is now pitched into G1 company for the first time with Luis Saez taking over. His early speed is his most potent weapon, and having drawn the inside post for the fourth time in as many starts, it’s worth mentioning that 44% of dirt sprint races at this current Saratoga meet have been won by horses who went gate to wire, 88% of winners were either on the lead or stalking the pace (only 12% for closers), and 38% of dirt sprint winners were drawn in gates 1-3. Those are all significant positives for WORLD RECORD, especially as his main speed threat, #11 LITTLE NI (10/1 ML), has been burdened with the outside post. No other horse in this field has ever posted an opening 1/4 mile in sub-22.00, (WR opened with a 21.77 in his last start), and so from the inside post, he has a chance to take this field gate to wire. 

Brisset doesn’t ship horses to New York if he doesn’t think that he’s live in a race either, which is reflected by the fact that he’s 2 for 2 (100%) on the circuit in 2024, with both victories coming in stakes races. Furthermore, over the last two years, he’s 4 for 8 with Saez (50%, $3.19 ROI).

Simply put, WORLD RECORD has a lot going for him here, and at 8/1, it would be dangerous to leave him off your tickets. 

Del Mar, Race 8: #1 PUSHINESS (2/1 ML)

Eleven runners have been entered for race eight at Del Mar on Saturday, a 5f OC 40k/N1X turf allowance, where PUSHINESS can stamp her class on the field. 

A $115,000 purchase owned by Repole Stable, PUSHINESS made quite the start to her career by breaking her maiden on debut, before following up with an impressive gate to wire win in the 5 1/2f California Thoroughbred Breeders Association Stakes next time out. She was then outclassed and simply didn’t get home in her last start as a 2yo, when trying to repeat her front running tactics in the 7f Del Mar Debutante Stakes (G1), won by TAMARA.

Unseen for 299 days, Michael McCarthy’s trainee has returned to the track in 2024 looking bigger, better, and faster. She returned off the lengthy layoff with an agonizing 1/2 length defeat in a 6f allowance at Los Alamitos in July, but still earned a career best 83 Beyer speed figure, and then destroyed her competition by 3 1/2 lengths in the Fleet Treat Stakes last time. Admittedly that last race did come against state restricted company, however, she visually couldn’t have been any more impressive and the 80 Beyer/111 TUS speed figures that she earned (fastest last out figs for Saturday’s race) back up the strength of the performance. 

Still somewhat unexposed, PUSHINESS clearly possesses plenty of talent and as she now makes her turf debut and third start of the form cycle, she has the potential to step her game up even more. (McCarthy has been hitting at 26% in turf sprints over the last four months (5/19, $2.48 ROI) and at 21% with horses making their third starts after a 200+ day layoff (10/40, $1.82 ROI).

By KANTHAROS, who’s progeny hit at 15% sprinting on the turf (12% all sire average), PUSHINESS is out of the Juddmonte Farms owned EMPIRE MAKER mare, IMPERIAL PIPPIN, who broke her maiden on the turf in England before hitting the board in two listed stake races. Going further back in the pedigree, you will find that PUSHINESS’ granddam, APPLE OF KENT, won the 2001 Shuvee Handicap (G2) going one mile on the dirt, but was also a winner on the turf in England beforehand and is a half sister to four black-type performers, including MGS winning turf router, WAR ZONE. Combining her ‘turfy’ pedigree with the fact that McCarthy is keen to move her away from the surface that she’s already a two-time stakes winner on, one has to suspect that this surface switch is going to bring about significant improvement. 

Her early speed is her best weapon and therefore, connections must have been thrilled to see her draw the rail, as inside speed has been a recipe for success at the current Del Mar meet. Red-hot Rispoli, who hits at 25% on turf with McCarthy (38/150, $2.05 ROI) is going to play ‘catch me if you can’ on Saturday, and there’s every chance that they go gate to wire once again. 

Good luck to everyone having a wager on Saturday and remember to subscribe to ITM Plus for more!