Horses to Follow - August 17th, 2024

By Will Humphrey

By Will Humphrey ©

A few horses to consider using in your Saturday wagers. Good luck!

Woodbine, Race 6: #2 TEST SCORE (4/1 ML)

Two-year-olds will sprint 6 1/2f in the Soaring Free Stakes at Woodbine on Saturday, where Graham Motion’s TEST SCORE looks a strong win candidate. 

By five time G1 winning stallion LOOKIN AT LUCKY, TEST SCORE is out of a winning half sister to six winners, including GSP performer ROYAL FURY; two time G3 winning turf router ADMISSION OFFICE; and four time GS winning turf router, COFFEE CLIQUE, who’s crowning moment came via a win in the 2014 Just A Game Stakes (G1) at Belmont. 

With so much stamina in the pedigree and trainer Graham Motion not being known for winning with first time 2yo’s sprinting on the turf, TEST SCORE was unloved at the betting windows and sent to post at 15/1 for his debut over 5 1/2f at Saratoga, 29-days ago. Drawn in gate five under Manny Franco, TEST SCORE broke alertly but showed signs of greenness and lacked speed early on in the race, with Franco squeezing him forward into the bridle just to keep tabs on the front four, who sped through an opening 1/4 mile in 21.99. Rounding the bend, the penny seemed to drop somewhat, as Motion’s trainee clicked into gear and started to roll into contention, before overcoming slight interference to finish with a flurry. He covered the final 3/16 miles in a swift 16.46 seconds (the race’s fastest closing sectional by 0.53 seconds) but couldn’t quite run down the gate to wire winner, GOVERNOR SAM. TEST SCORE eventually crossed the wire in 2nd with a Beyer speed figure of 70, before galloping out very well. 

He left plenty of room for improvement on debut but was still able to perform well regardless and visually, he looked a classy individual. The form of the race has also been boosted strongly since, with the winner (who already had a run under his belt) coming straight back to determinedly win a $100k stake at Monmouth next time. 

Since his debut, TEST SCORE has been training well at Saratoga and looks to be coming into this race fresh and well. It’s also encouraging to note, that over the last five years, Motion has been hitting at a 19% in turf sprints at Woodbine (4/21, 62% ITM) and at 18% in 2yo turf stake races (10/55, 49% ITM). He clearly knows the type of horse required to excel under Saturday’s conditions and believes that this horse is up to the required level. 

On both pedigree and the way that TEST SCORE shaped last time, today’s 6 1/2f distance should hit him square between the eyes and he will also benefit from the predicted fast pace and long stretch. With some experience now behind him, he’s entitled to take a huge step forward from his promising debut and could easily jump up to run a winning race here at around 4/1.  

Saratoga, Race 9: #6 LES REYS (10/1 ML)

Having made a strong start to her 3yo season, Cherie DeVaux’s #7 SHE FEELS PRETTY (2/1 ML) is a very logical choice for the 1 1/16 miles Lake Placid Stakes (G2) at Saratoga on Saturday. This race is by no means going to be a walkover though, and so at a slightly larger price, it’s worth taking a second look at LES REYS.

After having been purchased for only €12,000 at the 2022 Arqana Deauville September Yearling Sale in France, the daughter of PENNY’S PICNIC exceeded expectations by breaking her maiden on debut as a 2yo and progressing well into her 3yo campaign to win both of her two most recent starts in France, including a listed stake last time. It wasn’t the strongest of stake races that she won, however the 3rd place finisher, MINOUSHKA, is a talented individual who had previously been beaten only 4 1/4 lengths in the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (G1), and was only 2 1/4 lengths behind CONTENT, who came straight back to hit the board in two Irish G1’s.

Now making her first start in America and first start for Christophe Clement, there are many question marks regarding how LES REYS will fare on Saturday, but if her morning works are anything to go by, she should be competitive. 

Clement has had her breezing with last year’s Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes (G1) winner, FAR BRIDGE and boy has she looked good. One standout breeze came on the Saratoga turf course, when LES REYS started out a couple of lengths behind FAR BRIDGE, before looming up on his outside and proceeding to tank her way through the work under a firm hold from her rider. Visually, she looked every part a stakes horse and seemed to be thriving on the firm ground, which she was never tried on in Europe and could help her significantly improve in the afternoon. 

Clement knows a good turf horse when he sees one and has clearly liked what he has seen of his new trainee enough to warrant entering her in a tough G2 straight away - a move that he has had success with previously. In fact, since 2021, Clement has started a total of sixteen overseas shippers in GS races without a prep run and produced four winners (25%), with eleven ITM finishes (69%).

No doubt, this isn’t going to be an easy race for LES REYS to win but combining her French form with her recent workouts and trainer intentions, she could well be up to it. At 10/1, it would be dangerous to leave her off your tickets. 

Woodbine, Race 11: #4 CAITLINHERGRTNESS (12/1 ML)

Mark Casse looks to have a stranglehold on the $1m Kings Plate Stakes this year, sending out the two ML favorites; #7 MY BOY PRINCE (7/5 ML) and #3 ESSEX SERPENT (2/1 ML), who’s odds represent their obvious claims to the prize. If you’re looking for a slightly juicier price to spice up your tickets though, take a second look at the only filly in the lineup, CAITLINHERGRTNESS. 

A $375k 2yo purchase owned by Sienna Farm LLC & WinStar Farm LLC, CAITLINHERGRTNESS is by multiple G1 winning stallion OMAHA BEACH, out of an un-raced half-sister to three black-type performers, including Richard Mandella’s former stake winning G1 placed performer, DOGTAG. Going further back in the pedigree, you will find that CAITLINHERGRTNESS’ second dam, DIAMOND NECKLACE, was a stake placed half sister to four-time European G1 winning champion SHAMADRAL, who went onto become the sire of 25 individual G1 winners. 

Having started her career under the tutelage of Todd Pletcher, CAITLINHERGRTNESS broke her maiden on the dirt at the second time of asking, before finishing 4th in the Tempted Stakes at Aqueduct; and then 4th again in a stake quality allowance over 6 1/2f on the dirt at Gulfstream. 

CAITLINHERGRTNESS’ owners then transferred her to the barn of Kevin Attard, who helped her overcome a 143-day break to record a career best Beyer of 79 when turning her turf debut into a demolition job, beating three next out winners by a commanding 2 3/4 lengths. That entitled connections to send her to the $500,000 Woodbine Oaks last time, where she was bet down to start as the 3/1 favorite. 

Drawn way out in gate ten, Attard’s trainee was caught very wide around the first bend before settling into a stalking position behind honest fractions of 23.78, 47.96. Having traveled powerfully throughout, CAITLINHERGRTNESS was still under a hold from today’s rider Rafael Hernandez turning for home and could have been called the winner right up to the 1/16 pole, where she held a length lead on the field. However, KING’S CONCERTO was flying home in the centre of the track and nailed her by a neck on the wire in what was a thrilling race. Considering that this was her first route, first start on the synthetic, and that she was stuck wide throughout, CAITLINHERGRTNESS put up a huge effort that should have set her up well for Saturday’s race.

She came straight out of the Oaks to fire a bullet 5/8-mile drill in a blistering 58.60 and followed up with a maintenance drill last Saturday, so appears to be fresh and ready to fire as she now makes her second route start and third start of the form cycle. 

On TUS speed figures, CAITLINHERGRTNESS is already very live in this spot and with a valuable 5lbs weight advantage over her male rivals, plus a much kinder draw to help, it’s not inconceivable that she can step forward again to be right there at the finish. Rafael Hernandez, who hits at 21% in stakes with Attard (13/61, 50% ITM), retains the ride and should be able to sit a perfect ground saving trip while stalking what looks set to be a ferocious pace with the potential to develop beautifully for the pair.  

Keep in mind that fillies have won five of the last fifteen renewals of this race, including Attard’s filly, MOIRA, who won in 2022, so with everything looking in place for CAITLINHERGRTNESS to run a huge race, you shouldn’t rule her out at 12/1.

Del Mar, Race 4: #9 TOUGHT PROCESS (7/2 ML)

Two-year-old maiden fillies will stretch out to one mile in race four at Del Mar on Saturday, where Phil D’Amato’s TOUGHT PROCESS could be tough to beat following her promising debut effort. 

By G1 winning sire COLLECTED (who broke his maiden on the turf), TOUGHT PROCESS is out of three-time winning turf router, CREATIVE THINKING, who scored in the 2018 Keertana Overnight Stakes at Churchill Downs. She herself, is a half-sister to CHA CHA TAP, who broke her maiden on debut over one mile on the turf and is out of a half-sister to two-time G3 winner D’HALLEVANT.

With a swift set of morning drills behind her, THOUGH PROCESS was sent off at odds of 7/1 for her maiden over 5 1/2f on the dirt here at Del Mar 21-days ago, where she broke well under Mike Smith and showed good speed to closely stalk a lively pace. She ultimately wasn’t able to get the better of Tim Yakteen’s $200,000 winner PROUD STARLET, nor Bob Baffert’s $600,000 runner-up USHA, but THOUGH PROCESS showed a very game attitude to hold on for 3rd before galloping out well. 

Having returned to the work-tab with a smart 1/2 mile move in 47.20, THOUGHT PROCESS looks ready to fire here for California’s perennial leading turf trainer, Phil D’Amato, who likely used her first start to gain valuable fitness and race-day experience, prior to stretching her out of the turf. Interestingly, that is exactly what Tom Procter did with THOUGHT PROCESS’ dam, CREATIVE THINKING, who finished tailed off with a Beyer of 30 in her 6f maiden on the dirt, before she stretched out on the grass next time and finished 2nd at odds of 8/1 with a Beyer of 72. She would then win her subsequent start and go onto become a stake winning turf router. 

Based on pedigree, today’s surface switch and extra distance should bring about significant improvement in THOUGHT PROCESS and her experience over the two main ML threats will be invaluable. Hector Berrios hits at 28% in turf routes with D’Amato (12/43, $2.58 ROI) and has been given the call with Mike Smith out of town. He should be able to use her gate speed to establish a forward position, which has been crucial on the turf at Del Mar during this meet.

On paper, this field doesn’t look nearly as tough as the one that THOUGHT PROCESS met on debut and at 7/2, she looks a likely winner. 

Good luck to everyone having a wager on Saturday and remember to subscribe to ITM Plus for more!