Horses to Follow - August 10th & 11th, 2024
By Will Humphrey
By Will Humphrey ©
A few horses to consider using in your Saturday wagers. Good luck!
Woodbine, Race 9: #4 FOREVER AFTER ALL (6/1 ML)
Three of the eleven contenders for Woodbine’s Canadian Stakes (G2), are cross entered in the Beverly D. Stakes (G2) at Colonial on Sunday, including the the 2022 Canadian Horse of the Year and 8/5 favorite, MOIRA. It goes without saying, that should MOIRA show up in Ontario, she will be very tough to beat, having run a monster race off a 252-day layoff in the Diana Stakes (G1) last time and holding a class edge over her rivals. However, bettors should be vigilant to the fact that MOIRA is only 1 for 5 on the Woodbine lawn and has been beaten as the favorite 6 out of 7 times. If you’re also someone who considers the ‘bounce factor’ into your handicapping, you may be trying to get her beat on Saturday and if that is the case, take a second look at FOREVER AFTER ALL.
Owned by Dixiana Farms LLC, FOREVER AFTER ALL is sired by G1 winner CONNECT, out of GSP performer, JULIA TUTTLE, which makes her a half-sister to G1 winner TOM’S D’ETAT, who ran a 100+ Beyer on ten separate occasions and banked over $1.7 million in his career.
FOREVER AFTER ALL finished as the runner-up six times before she eventually broke her maiden at the ninth attempt on the dirt last June, and in February this year, she made her debut for Brendan Walsh. Walsh instantly campaigned his new recruit with turf races in mind, and after seeing her score in an OC 25k/N1X at Turfway, has helped her progress into graded stakes company on the grass.
A troubled 6th place finish on yielding ground in the Modesty Stakes (G3) was followed by a valiant effort in the Gamely Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita, where she finished strongly to cross the wire in 3rd behind ANISETTE. Finishing 1 1/2 lengths behind ANISETTE is strong form as it is, but the fourth and fifth place finishers from the Gamely both came back to win stakes races next time out as well, so the form is now looking rock solid. It’s also worth bearing in mind the simple fact that Walsh saw it worthwhile to ship her all the way to California for a G1, because trainers don’t do that sort of thing if they don’t think that their horse is up to it.
When we last saw FOREVER AFTER ALL, she improved her Beyer speed figure for the fourth consecutive time, by just failing to run down WALKATHON in the Anchorage Overnight Stakes at Churchill Downs. A slow pace set by the gate to wire winner compromised her chances that day, as it meant that, despite recording a final furlong 0.30 seconds faster than the winner, she couldn’t quite get up in time. Nevertheless, WALKATHON came straight back to win last Sunday’s KY Downs Preview Ladies Turf Mile Stakes at Ellis Park, so there was no disgrace in defeat.
Saturday’s race should set up better for her though, as Woodbine’s unique one turn 1 1/8 mile course with a long stretch, combined with the strong pace that #3 FULL COUNT FELICIA (15/1 ML) is likely to set, should place an emphasis on stamina and help this well-bred filly use her powerful finish to full effect. It’s also noteworthy that Walsh’s last two GS runners at Woodbine have finished 1st and 2nd and that Adam Beschizza makes the journey from Kentucky for just this one ride.
FOREVER AFTER ALL is consistently improving from start to start; her strong recent form and speed figures give her a real shot here and with lasix going back on, she could go very close at a decent price.
Del Mar, Race 4: #7 CATHAL (5/1 ML)
The seven-runner field for race four at Del Mar on Saturday includes CATHAL, and the Phil D’Amato trained #2 SIENNOIS (5/1 ML), both of whom separately earned their way into ITM’s ‘Eye-catchers’ blog recently. SIENNOIS struggled to close over 1 1/6 miles here 20-days ago and may be unsuited by both the cut back in trip and slow pace on Saturday, but CATHAL remains of strong interest.
A €120,000 son of NO NAY NEVER, CATHAL started his career with a 13th place finish in the 23 runner, €1.2 million Goffs Million at the Curragh (Ire), before he chased home a very well-bred Juddmonte Farms owned colt on the synthetic at Dundalk (Ire).
CATHAL was then privately purchased to join the John Saddler barn in California and made his American debut on May 5, in a 6f MSW at Santa Anita. He was extremely green that day; breaking slowly and climbing over the dirt crossing with with his head high in behind horses, before flying home in 11.54 to finish 3rd behind future stakes placed runner, ALL THAT GLORY.
Stretched out to one mile last time, he again broke slowly and looked green; racing in seventh place throughout the majority of the race and coming under strong pressure rounding the home bend, before becoming unbalanced upon straightening. However, when Antionio Fresu finally got him organized, he exploded impressively up the stretch, blowing by his rivals to win under wraps with a 75 Beyer.
For all his imperfections, CATHAL actually produced a very taking performance last time and looked to have won the race, (which produced two next out winners) on pure talent alone, leaving stacks of room for improvement.
He gets blinkers on today which should help him to travel better and focus more throughout, under the red-hot Umberto Rispoli, who hits at 28% with Saddler. From his outside post position, Rispoli should be able to work CATHAL into a forward/stalking position early on in a race that doesn’t appear to have much speed signed on, and if #5 NESSO’S LASTHARRAH’s stamina starts to deplete over this trip, he will be the first to pounce.
Its also worth noting that he was scratched out of last week’s La Holla Stakes and has been recently breezing with G1 winner, EXAULTED, and two-time G3 winner HEYWOODS BEACH, which could be an indication of the regard that he’s held in by connections.
With seemingly so much more to come and everything indicating that we are going to see a career best from CATHAL on Saturday, 5/1 looks fair value.
The summer rolls along with Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Notebook and Frank Scatoni’s “Frankly Speaking” Del Mar Diary! Subscribe to ITM Plus for exclusive picks, written analysis, and shows from your favorite ITM contributors.
*MOVED TO SUNDAY*
Saratoga, Race 11: #6 DETERMINISTIC (9/2 ML)
The re-scheduled Saratoga Derby Invitational Stakes (G1) lost two of it’s major contenders when it was re-drawn, which could leave the door ajar for DETERMINISTIC to scoop the pot.
The expensively purchased Gotham Stakes (G3) winner and one time Kentucky Derby hopeful was bet down to odds of 9/5 when looking to get his career back on track last time, via a switch to the turf in the Manila Stakes (G3) at BAQ. He chased home NEAT, who came back to score in the Hall of Fame Stakes (G2) last week, however, DETERMINISTIC left so much room for improvement that day, and could be a much better turf router than the PPs would even suggest.
The Manila was slowly run and successfully turned into a 3/8-mile sprint to the wire by NEAT’s rider, Junior Alvarado, which completely compromised the chances of DETERMINISTIC, who looks to have stamina in abundance. Dylan Davis and DETERMINISTIC tried to follow Alvarado’s sharp move off the home bend, but upon straightening, DETERMINISTIC became unbalanced, drifted around a little, and made numerous lead changes, hindering his forward momentum. When Davis did manage to get DETERMINISTIC organized though, he came with a powerful late charge at NEAT and covered the final 1/4 mile in 23.24 seconds, but simply ran out of real estate.
All of the errors that DETERMINISTIC made in the Manila are quite common for horses making their first start on turf and he also had to exert his energy in a completely different way to in dirt races, where the opening sectionals are typically the fastest. He had never been asked to pick up his pace and sprint rounding the final turn before and was simply caught flat footed by a talented rival.
Nevertheless, he probably learned more in the Manila than he had done in his last three starts combined and it was good to see him figuring things out as the race went on, doing his best work at the end, finishing strongly, showing a willing attitude and ultimately, running to a very respectable level.
Despite his imperfections, the 85 Beyer that he earned last time is only three points behind #7 FIRST WORLD WAR’s race top of 88, and with that turf experience under his belt, he has huge potential to progress past the field on Saturday. Since the Belmont Derby, DETERMINISTIC has put in a solid 1/2 mile on the Saratoga turf in 47.80 so appears to be coming into this race in fine form and Clement clearly believes that he is up to G1 standard on the grass, which would be supported by his ‘turfy’ pedigree. A more honest pace and extra distance should be to DETERMINISTIC’s benefit and at 9/2 he looks a fair price.
INTERNATIONAL ACTION: CURRAGH (IRELAND)
With only 83-days to go until the Breeders’ Cup, bettors will want to be keeping their eyes peeled for potential European raiders, and Saturday’s card at the Curragh (Ire), could offer up some potential clues towards Del Mar. Here are a few horses that could grab your attention and potentially end up competing stateside in the future.
Race 1 (8:45am ET): #3 DELACROIX (15/8 ML)
DELACROIX finished a good 2nd despite showing signs of greenness at Leopardstown last month and looks tough to beat with that run under his belt. Ryan Moore retains the ride on the Aidan O’Brien trainee, who is by leading sire DUBAWI, out of Mark Casse’s former six-time G1 winner and 2015 Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) champion, TEPIN.
Race 3 (9:50am ET): #1 BALLET SLIPPERS (7/4 ML)
Having finished a promising 3rd on debut, BALLET SLIPPERS looks a very logical choice in this 7f Fillies’ Juvenile Stakes with Ryan Moore taking the ride. By leading sire DUBAWI, BALLET SLIPPERS is out of seven-time G1 winner MAGICAL, who finished 2nd in both the 2018 and 2020 renewals of the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1). The field also includes #4 FALLING SNOW, an un-raced JUSTIFY filly out of four-time G1 winner WINTER; and #10 TEA ROSE, a FRANKEL filly out of two-time G1 winning sprinter, MARSHA, who was beaten only 1 1/4 lengths in the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1).
Race 6 (11:35am ET): #4 WHISTLEJACKET (8/11 ML)
The Group 1 Keeneland Phoenix Stakes highlights the card at Curragh on Saturday, where six two-year-old colts are set to line up for the 6f sprint. WHISTLEJACKET was turned over as the 10/11 favorite in the Norfolk Stakes (G2) at Royal Ascot but got right back on track with a G2 victory at Newmarket last time. He is potentially O’Brien’s top 2yo at the moment and looks tough to beat here from gate two. Partly owned by prominent USA based owner, Peter Brant, WHISTLEJACKET is a full brother to G1 winning sprinter LITTLE BIG BEAR, out of GSW ADVENTURE SEEKER, who finished 4th in the 2011 E P Taylor Stakes (G1) at Woodbine.
Good luck to everyone having a wager on Saturday and Sunday and remember to subscribe to ITM Plus for more!