Normally I write some commentary on this space related to the week prior about an event or a race etc. This week I thought I’d talk a little handicapping and the power of a track bias. Some people are quick to identify what seems to be a track that is favoring a certain type of style after a race or two on a card. The nature of harness racing favors horses that can get position early in the race. Not many races are won from the back of the pack as it can be difficult to navigate traffic of others or overcome slow fractions. I think it takes a careful eye to identify a bias during a race card, but also be able to take advantage of said bias. Last Saturday at The Meadows, I personally think a Bias existed on the track and continued throughout the day. Horses from off the pace were excelling. The track was sloppy given the off and on rain that it had received from the night before and throughout the morning. The first race was won by Whitecookie paying $17.40 (4th choice) when winning from off the pace. Now he is an old class horse and wasn’t out of place vs. the group and the horse that finished 2nd was also an off the pace type named Chief Mate. Announcer Jeff Zidek pointed out right away, could this racetrack be playing to off the pace types after the horses that took action were able to dictate things on the front end? That proved to be very prophetic as the day was dominated by off the speed types. The second race didn’t do much to back up the theory as the 1/9 Fav Brooklets Banner made an early move and won well. However when gauging bias looking at horses that are heavy favorites can skew the track trend. While a bias can get horses that are heavily favored beat, sometimes the horses are so much the best that it doesn’t matter. That was the case here. The next two races featured horses winning with trips but not on the front. The fifth race was an Open Handicap which are racing usually won by the in form types that have made their way to the top level. Many times in Open races the “now” horse is sharp and wins many in a row (not always). Take a horse like Taurasi at Mohawk right now winning 8 times in 9 starts at the top level this year. We discussed the race on the broadcast and the pace figured to be contested with horses that like to be up close. The (1) Macadoodledoo was shipping in with lines showing his style was one of a closer. He struggled at the top level out of town due to poor posts and less than favorable setups. Today was a perfect storm for him as the track was favoring his style, the pace was going to be fast and he had drawn the rail. All those things came to fruition and he rallied and paid $43.20 in a seven horse race. We as players are always looking to find value in races. This is an example of a horse that moved up when conditions favored him. In harness racing when tracks favor closers it typically leads to longshot winners. The key to finding such winners comes from careful observation of prior races and the ability to identify dynamics that may favor horses that are being ignored by the public who may not be paying attention to such things. Could the track change mid card? Sure it can. Hard to know if conditions will persist that keep the trend of a racetrack the same. But identifying something early, then adding it to ones handicapping as another tool to find prices can be very useful in making scores. In this case the theme of the day persisted and many more winners would come from off the pace. So this was useful on the day, but also useful going forward. If I am handicapping races with lines from 5/4 at the The Meadows I need to upgrade horses that raced up close and be aware of horses that benefitted from a track that favored closers. Thoroughbred handicappers discuss this all the time. The rail was good on this day, or speed was no good. This is more difficult in harness racing as horses typically race single file most of the way and favorites dominate races on the front nearly half the time. I think this makes situations like this more useful because they are harder to come by in harness racing. Keeping track of these advantages and disadvantages will serve a handicapper well when looking at future opportunities because these things aren’t printed in the program. So be on the lookout for track bias the day of but also in the future when you can use said information to find winners or horses that look bad on paper but had little chance on the day.
Enjoy the content this week and the Preakness if you like those sorts of things….also we went with Video this week on the Harness Players Podcast. The audio version is still in its usual spots but catch us on YouTube as well, it was a fun show and a preview of upcoming shows this spring/summer.
~Mikee P
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This week’s Harness Players Podcast debuted on video (and of course aired with this audio) with Mike Pribozie, Edison Hatter and Ray Cotolo taking their talents to YouTube. They go over the Pennsylvania Sires Stakes on Friday (May 17) at The Meadows, which feature the return of champion 2-year-old Geocentric and Breeders Crown winner My Girl EJ. They also discuss two races from Friday at Woodbine Mohawk, including the return of last year’s champion 3-year-old filly Sylvia Hanover. The show wraps with a few thoughts on the Black Eyed Susan stakes at Pimlico, the debutante feature to the Preakness Stakes on Saturday.
The Week Ahead from Kevin Plowcha
Compared to what we'll get over the summer, this week around harness racing could be considered "small but mighty". Not as many tracks with stakes action this week, but the ones who feature it have some damn good horses.
Exhibit A: Friday afternoon (May 17) at The Meadows. Races 8, 9, and 10 feature 3YO filly pacers in the "Adios Betty" PA Sire Stake.
Race 8 sees the return of (#1) Geocentric, who went 9-for-10 last season (only loss was in the Breeders Crown Final) and made over $550,000. She returns to the track where she debuted and earned her first win. A natural exacta partner for her appears to be (#3) Asweetbeachhere, who did some damage in the Kentucky Sire Stakes and hit the board in 8-of-11 last year.
Race 9 features 2YO Filly Pace Breeders Crown Champion (#7) My Girl EJ, who worked out her early season quirks and blossomed into a star. She may not be fully torqued Friday afternoon but draws an easier division and appears ready to roll off those two qualifiers.
Finally, race 10, which is more wide open on paper. (#2) Canigetalouploup gets slight morning line favoritism at 5-2. She earned nearly $150,000 last year but never challenged the top tier of fillies. Burke always has his horses ready, especially here, but those qualifiers make me question how ready she'll be. You also have (#3) Pass And Stow who was a solid second in her return to action. She was another who couldn't quite reach the upper echelon last season, but she fits here and will be kicking strongly late.
(#4) Whassup Hanover has won four in a row, and (#5) Bellucci is an unknown who has just two career starts. How fast is she? We don't know yet. Overall, this is the most wide open division, which wraps up an awesome stakes Friday at The Meadows.
We'll stick in Pennsylvania for Saturday afternoon top level stakes action. The Glamour Boys (3YO Colt & Gelding Pacers) take center stage with four divisions (races 6, 8, 10, and 12). We've got more returning stars here including Captain Albano (R8, PP4), who went 7-for-9 last season including a runner-up finish in the Breeders Crown Final. He will be a heavy favorite.
Watch out for (#5) Lyons Benjamin in race 10. He produced a very nice late rally last time out and can outsprint the other main contenders late if close enough. Tetrick knows this guy well.
Race 12 is the most interesting division to me. Us contributors to the Harness Players Podcast and Newsletter are fond of (#1) Timeisonmyside for obvious reasons, but he's proven to be a real contender at the top level. (#3) Number Cruncher comes off a fast win at M1, while reigning Breeders Crown champ (#7) Gem Quality should be even better following his PA All Stars win last week. PA has PLENTY of high quality stakes action this weekend.
As does The Meadowlands, who features the Arthur J. Cutler Memorial Open Trot for $145,000 on Saturday night (May 18). Can anyone take down (#7) Jiggy Jog S, another Breeders Crown champ from last year who made over $1,000,000. We'll see how ready horses like (#6) Venerate and (#5) Southwind Tyrion are.
M1 also has some New Jersey Sire Stakes action Saturday, with everyone's eyes being on superstar Karl (R10, PP4).
Finally, the Charles Juravinski Memorial Cup Final is Sunday evening (May 19) at Flamboro Downs. It's a full field of nine for the $263,000 purse. Elimination winners (#4) No Control and (#5) All Class sit right in the middle of the gate. (#1) Seven Colors made the final despite making a break at the start. How will he rebound? Will the pace meltdown like it did in the Borgata Final? That remains to be seen.
As I said, small but mighty. How can you not be excited about this upcoming weekend in harness racing? I know I am, and that excitement will only grow as summer inches closer. Let's go!
Spot Plays for the Weekend of 5/17 and 5/18 presented by Nahupicks.com
Friday Western Fair Race 1 - (7) Shetrotsalot - her third start back after a layoff and gets a great shot to being the Early Pick 5. That outside post should allow for some value - Anything close to her 5/2 ML and she would be worth backing on a WIN play as well.
~Sugar Doyle
Friday Century Downs Race 4 - (7) Outlawendofanera - comes back from BC and moves to Sobey barn - faces beatable group.
~Murray Slough
Friday Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 8 - (5) Barstool Mountain - Easily best Closing quarter, good qualifier plus James Macdonald.
~Doug Henwood
Friday Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 3 - (4) Silver Label is back and gets to face ‘Sylvia here who is off the bench. Take the recency, the class and the price because it will be much lower from now on.
~Mike Pribozie
Friday The Meadows Race 10 - (5) Bellucci is an unknown in the Final Stakes race of the day. Was favored on debut and raced well in both career starts despite getting slightly outsprinted in them. I think she could get a perfect trip here and power by.
~Kevin Plowcha
Friday Meadowlands Race 6 - (2) Stellar Yankee - parked the entire mile in last and stuck around late
~John Rallis
Saturday Rosecroft Race 1 - (4) Fantastic Voyage - ships back here where he has had tons of success. There is plenty of early speed, which works in his favor as a fierce closer.
~Rod Allums, Jr.
Saturday Pocono Downs Race 10 - (5) Lyons Benjamin was one I liked last time out. He was activated just a little too late but raced great. His ability last year was no fluke. He just had to face Captain Albano every week. Love that Tetrick is back in the bike.
~Kevin Plowcha
Saturday Northside Downs Race 5 - (6) Sonny Jax - Nice 3 year old colt 2nd start off the shelf looked fantastic last week. Tough post here but last quarter 29/3 first start back. I’d expect and aggressive steer! Key in multis.
~Peter McGuigan
Saturday Yonkers Race 8 - (8) Sky Box - made a big recovery in last and was full of trot late. Post will keep price high.
~Mike Pribozie
Monday Oak Grove Race 13 (1) Jim Strikesitrich - going to roll down the road for Pete Kleinhans. This horse is seconds faster than the field and has had terrible racing luck.
~Ray Cotolo
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