Frankly Speaking - September 8th

Larry, Bucky, LRF, Rusty!

Everyone Loves a Gray!

We had bonus racing on Monday, and an old-school five-day race week. Can you believe that? Us old-timers were reminiscing about the good old days when we had to walk five miles uphill just to get to the racetrack…in the scalding-hot sun, without any bottled water! And to think we even had to do it six days a week. Now that’s real fortitude. Of course, I jest—but it’s a little hard to fathom that we really did race six days a week once (Wednesday through Monday), and no one ever seemed to complain. We wrapped up on Mondays, had Tuesdays to do our laundry and run our errands, and we were back at it again on Wednesdays without so much as a by your leave!

It was fun having five days in a row last week, and even though I was dragging my feet by Monday afternoon, I was invigorated when we got to the seventh race, a pretty ordinary $25K/N2L conditional-claiming race for fillies and mares going a mile on the turf. It drew a big field, and it was an interesting race to handicap (with a 15/1 shot winning the race), but I was interested in it for an entirely different reason, and that was because of #5 Violet Storm.

First off, as you can see from the first picture, she’s a lovely gray—and when the light shines on her just right, she does give off a very pretty purplish hue. She was also a Little Red Feather (LRF) runner, and I always like to root for Billy Koch and Gary Fenton and their fellow partners—and, in this case, one partner in particular. You see, that Thursday morning, before I was getting ready to head down to the Newcomers’ Seminar, I got a DM on Twitter from Larry Dannemiller. Larry is a partner in several LRF horses, but he’s also one of us—a horseplayer who isn’t afraid to fire away, especially in the multi-race wagers. He was coming out to Del Mar from his home base in Houston, and he just wanted to say hi, since he had been following along in this column since the beginning of the meet. “Of course,” I said. Stop by the seminar.

Larry did, and we hit it off. Even though he lives in Houston, I could tell he was an honorary Del Martian. We swapped tales about Red Tracton’s and the Kraken, and we talked horses and gambling. It’s always such a great feeling for me when I meet like-minded people whom I can connect with based on my experiences and with theirs’ as well. Larry had so many great racetrack stories, I felt like we had known each other for years. Larry had some pretty good Texas stories too, so he and Terri had an instant rapport and bonded over their home state. I even overheard them talking about Bucky Richardson, the Texas A&M quarterback from the early ’90s. They may as well have been speaking Swahili according to this New Yorker.

Larry spent the whole weekend at the races, watching his horses run, firing away at the windows, and enjoying all Del Mar had to offer. Violet Storm was his last chance for a W in person this past weekend before he had to head back to Texas. Alas, it wasn’t mean to be (but he might have a chance for a W from afar this weekend—must not be present to win!).

Violet Storm was actually my top pick in the race, and she ran a lot better than the running line will indicate, but she was a million miles back and never really had a shot. It’s a miracle she finished sixth. Put her on your “Horse to Watch” list, as she’s definitely a bet for me the next time she comes back.

As for Larry…I look forward to when he comes back to Del Mar. I know he will. But in the meantime, I’m sure we’ll stay in touch virtually. That’s what I love about Del Mar…you can make a friend and find a “horse to watch” all in the same weekend!

Spot Play

After a really nice run of Spot Plays, the train came to a screeching halt on Monday. Well, that’s really my own fault. I didn’t love anyone on the card, so I decided to go old-school and just play up some trainer statistics, but that didn’t work out at all. I thought #3 Flat On (8/1) in Race 6 would run much better for the white-hot Eurton and Juan Hernandez, but he took no money and was just flat throughout. My point was that it was hard to ignore the gaudy Eurton/Hernandez statistics: heading into the race, they were 5 for 10 this meet with a $6.50 R.O.I…and they were 58 percent (with 26 starters) this year with a $5.85 R.O.I. How can you not take a shot with those two in a race filled with proven losers? Oh, well, he stalked wide and never fired—it was almost as if the horse wasn’t even trying. He finished sixth at 8/1.

C’est la guerre. On to today!

I think I’ve got a horse who can outrun his odds—and maybe even win—in today’s first race, a $10K open-claimer contested at 6-furlongs on the main track. And that’s #6 SCARY FAST SMILE (5/1). First off, Glatt—who just took this guy for $8K—has been on fire. He was terrible for the first five weeks of the meet, barely at 10 percent with a lot of starters, and now, he’s 17 percent, winning with everything of late—which is good for me, because I typically like his horses.

As for this one, this horse was 8/1 against $8K claimers last time going 6.5-furlongs while trained by DeAlba. He broke from the 11-hole, chased a very hot pace, and wilted after a wide journey. He was wet in the paddock that day, and I don’t think he was ever going to win, despite the fact that he was dropping in from the Cal-bred AOC ranks. I love that Glatt took him out of that race and now bumps him up slightly in class. This guy has sharp early speed, but he doesn’t need the lead to win, so Franco will have options.

The Feature(s)

There were two stakes races on Monday, the Tranquility Lake in Race 5, and the Generous Portion in Race 10.

First, the Tranquility Lake. Wow, the filly I didn’t think could lose was also the filly that no one else thought could lose, #5 Fun to Dream (trained by Bob Baffert). Instead, she was awful. I mean, she was worse than awful. She was 3/10 in a five-horse field against seemingly far inferior competition, and she just laid an egg. In fact, she was all-out to barely hold on for third. It was a really disappointing race, since this gal showed so much talent and class the last two years, and she had races on her form that were supposed to bury these. Two thumbs down!

Hats off to the winner, though: the appropriately named #3 Micro Share for Mandella, who looked good getting the job done as the second choice at 3/1. As my friend Leo always says, “Nothing ever good can come from betting the favorite!” This was a perfect example where taking on Fun to Dream would have paid nice dividends if you had the imagination to come up with this winner. At least the gazillion “micro share” owners of this horse through My Racehorse had something to cheer about. Congrats to them.

The second stakes, the Generous Portion for Cal-bred 2-year-old fillies, was a little bit better for me, since my wiseguy pick in that one was #6 Prancingthruparis, who finished a very good second at 8/1 as the fourth choice in a small field. The race was won very impressively by #1 Crazy Hot at 4/5, who is co-owned by Rusty Brown and trained by Jeff Bonde. Brown and Bonde have some really nice Cal-bred 2-year-olds in their barn, so they will be fun to watch the rest of the year and next.

Speaking of Rusty Brown and his 2-year-olds, he’s got three entered in today’s feature, the $125K I’m Smokin Stakes, a 6-furlong main-track affair for Cal-bred 2-year-olds. Rusty has three horses in here—two with Bonde and one with Koriner. One of the Brown/Bonde productions is the morning-line favorite, #2 Lord Prancealot (2/1), who is also co-owned by Jeff Ganje, and his silks will be adorning the jock here in this race.

This is a fast horse, and the race could be over before you know it, just like it was in the Graduation, when this guy wired a few of these. That said, he will have to carry his speed an extra half-furlong, so we’ll see if #4 Smokem Ez (8/1) or #5 Last Call London (5/2) can turn the tables and run him down. I have zero opinion in here, but I’ll be watching intently!

The DMTC.com Contest Race

As always, my Del Mar contest race of the day analysis can be found by clicking on the Del Mar Race of the Day Analysis Button at www.frankscatoni.com. Today’s event comes in Race 8, a Cal-bred $20K optional-claiming/N1X for fillies and mares going 6.5-furlongs on the main track. The morning-line favorite is a tepid 7/2. She looks solid, but I also really like an 8/1 and a 12/1. Check it out!

Upcoming Seminars

--Saturday, 9/9: Saturday Handicapping Seminar with my buddy, horse owner and horseplayer, “Radar” Rob Talstra: 12:35 p.m. PDT in the Plaza de Mexico inside the Stretch Run entrance and livestreamed on my Twitter feed @ScatoniSureShot: Weekend Handicapping Seminar (dmtc.com).

--Sunday, 9/10: “Best Bet” livestream with the terrific handicapper and contest player Dylan Donnelly at 11:00 a.m. PDT on all of Del Mar’s social media platforms, including YouTube: Best Bet (dmtc.com).

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Be sure to check out www.frankscatoni.com for what’s good every day during the Del Mar meet.

As I always say: Good luck to us…and let’s make some money!!!