The Baffert…and the Other Baffert
We witnessed something very interesting at Del Mar on Sunday. Granted, the featured race today, the Shared Belief (R7), was a two-horse race on paper, but the crowd was very closely divided. The first two choices were 8/5 and 2/1…and, get this, they were both trained by Bob Baffert.
I didn’t think #6 Mr. Fisk could lose, and the public gave him a slight edge in the wagering in this one mile affair—but I talked to my buddy Bobby down at the paddock as soon as the horses walked by, and he touted the “other” Baffert at 2/1: “Have you watched the works on the one horse [Tahoe Sunrise]? This horse is super-game; he just refuses to let other horses pass him.”
I said that I didn’t see the works, but that I was worried about the rail post for the horse, especially with the jock who was riding him. Bobby was worried about that too, but he was all in on Tahoe Sunrise based on the morning-works. Turns out later (in the post-race quotes) that Baffert told jock Victor Espinoza before the race (and I paraphrase): Tahoe Sunrise is a son of American Pharoah. Ride him like that.
And Victor did. The gates opened, and Victor asserted himself early, making the lead from the one hole. He looked in control, and he even opened up a few lengths at one point while everyone but his stablemate, Mr. Fisk, was in an all-out drive. He looked home at the eighth pole. But Mr. Fisk, who was in last along the backstretch, started to make a run around the turn.
When they turned for home, Tahoe Sunrise was still comfortably in front, but he was starting to shorten strides. Mr. Fisk was gobbling up ground, but he still had a lot to do. Tahoe Sunrise kept trying so hard, refusing to yield an inch despite being exhausted. At the sixteenth pole, track caller Trevor Denman said, “The only thing we know for sure is that Bob Baffert’s going to win this race, but which one will win it?”
They got on even terms close to the wire, and neither one wanted to lose. They hit the wire at exactly the same time. Wow. It was such a thrilling finish. I promise you that I’m not exaggerating when I tell you that the whole crowd cheered in astonishment. What a performance by both of these horses…but who won?
No matter how many times they showed the replay, it was just too close to call. Bobby looked at me, imploring me to tell him that his one had held on. But all I could do was raise my eyebrows and shrug my shoulders. If there’s one thing I know about Del Mar, it’s that the camera angle typically shorts the outside horse, so whenever it’s a tight photo, I usually expect that outside horse to get the victory—and that would have been Mr. Fisk, and I sure as hell wasn’t going to tell Bobby that I thought the outside horse beat his one. But it was so close, and I really had no clue who was the winner.
The crowd waited in silence. After several minutes of anticipation, that silence was broken. “Ah-LADIES AND GENTLEMEN…” came the voice of track caller Trevor Denman, several decibels louder than he usually calls the results…and with much more excitement. “We have a dead heat!” The crowd breathed a sigh of relief—it seemed that everyone had one of those two horses singled in all of their wagers. To my knowledge, that was the first dead-heat for the win this meet, and it turns out that it was the second dead-heat for Baffert here at the seaside oval. Way back in 1992, he dead-heated for the win with a trainer named Jack Haynes in a minor stakes race that I never heard of.
But that wasn’t just Baffert’s second dead-heat. It was a dead-heat between two of his own horses. Imagine being so good at what you do that you get to have your picture taken twice…with two different horses…in the same race!
I know it might sound cliché, but it’s true: It’s Baffert’s world…we just live in it.
I had several friends who used one or the other of the Bafferts, but not both. They were upset that they had to chop up the money in all of the multi-race wagers, but I had to remind them that a dead-heat was way better than a losing photo!
Spot Play
Not to toot my own horn, but Saturday’s Spot Play was the nuts. I had no use for the morning-line favorite, #3 Daddysruby, a Cal-bred facing open foes for the first time who had an easy wire victory against his own kind last time. No! No! No! I thought this was a three-horse race, and I wanted no part of the morning-line choice. The three horses I liked were: the logical horse--#4 Gentle (GB)—as well as two price horses who were going to get a great set-up to flatter their stretch runs: #8 Tea N Conversation and #7 With Love (GB).
The latter two were big prices—13/1 and 29/1, respectively—but the reason I listed them in reverse numerical orders above was because I liked the #8 better, mainly because I had been chasing this horse for a very long time—but now he was finally going to get a pace to close into.
I suggested doing an exacta-box with the 4,7,8. I also made a win bet on the #8, so this was a nice result for me. As expected, the race fell apart after the two favorites canceled each other out, and my two long shots came flying home to finish one-two. #8 Tea N Conversation paid $28.00 to win, and the 8/7 exacta paid $176.20. This made for a very nice day!
As for today…I’d be stupid not to mention #3 FLAT ON (8/1) in Race 6, a Maiden Special Weight contested at one mile on the main track. I don’t even care about the form here; all I care about is the connections. Peter Eurton has been ridiculous this meet—and when he legs up Hernandez, he’s almost automatic. He and J. J. are 5 for 10 this meet with a $6.50 R.O.I…and they are 58 percent (with 26 starters) this year with a $5.85 R.O.I. I don’t want you to think I’m being lazy, but this field is filled with proven losers, so why not take the hot hands?
The Feature
There were two stakes races on Sunday, the aforementioned Shared Belief, which was won in a dead-heat by two Baffert horses, and the main event, the Del Mar Derby (G2), a 9-furlong turf affair for 3-year-olds. I wrote about the Del Mar Derby (G2) for the DMTC.com contest race, and I had the race surrounded—but my key horse, #6 Panic Alarm (IRE), got a good trip and was in with a shot but just wasn’t good enough at 9/1. He finished a valiant fourth, but he was never going to win.
Hats off to the winner, #2 Conclude, who was very impressive at almost even-money. I made him a “B” contender in my analysis because I wanted to try and beat him at such a short price, thinking he might not appreciate added distance, but he was awesome in this race. Congrats to Little Red Feather and Phil D’Amato for the win.
Every other horse I liked rounded out the superfecta, but I didn’t cash a penny in the race.
Today’s feature…well, we’ve got two stakes races on tap today. In Race 5, we’ve got the restricted Tranquility Lake for fillies and mares going one-mile on the main track. And then there’s the Generous Portion in Race 10, a 6-furlong main-track affair for 2-year-old Cal-bred fillies.
In the Tranquility Lake, I won’t be getting involved. It’s a small field, and I’ve always been a fan of #5 FUN TO DREAM (4/5), who is an overachieving Cal-bred who has knocked heads with the best open-stakes foes here in SoCal. She’s supposed to win, and the only other gals in this race who have a chance to beat her are second- and third-choices on the line, so this is just a watch race for me. I have no interest in betting it.
In the Generous Portion, I have a lot of respect for the rail horse, but I’m not crazy about the draw, so I was going to take a shot with #6 PRANCINGTHRUPARIS (6/1) for Eurton and Fresu, two of the hottest things going here at Del Mar right now. I know this horse just broke her maiden from a good post in wire fashion, but I can see her getting a great trip once again—and let me tell you that this gal had to endure a long gate delay as well as being the one to carve out some very swift fractions yet still win the race. She should outrun her odds today.
The DMTC.com Contest Race
As always, my Del Mar contest race of the day analysis can be found by clicking on the Del Mar Race of the Day Analysis Button at www.frankscatoni.com. Today’s event comes in Race 9, and it’s a very tough $80K optional-claiming/N1X for 3-year-olds going 8.5-furlongs on the turf with the rails at 18-feet. The favorite actually won this race last time but was rightfully DQ’d, so he figures again right back, but I thought there were a few others who could make some noise at really good prices.
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Be sure to check out www.frankscatoni.com for what’s good every day during the Del Mar meet.
As I always say: Good luck to us…and let’s make some money!!!