Frankly Speaking - Del Mar, September 9th

All About That Butt...

All About That Butt…’Bout That Butt…’Bout That Butt!

When I give my Newcomers’ Seminar, I tell all the newbies that the best thing they can do all day is to go down to the paddock and look at the horses. For one, they are such beautiful and majestic creatures, and we are lucky to be able to get up close and personal with them. Secondly, I stress that these are “equine athletes,” and no Thoroughbred is created equally. Horses can give us clues in the paddock as to how they might perform on the race track against their fellow competitors.

I talk about a couple of physical things to look for, but the one that gets the most attention is when I tell everyone that they need to look at the butt! I’m not the best judge of horse flesh—I leave the paddock picks to my main man Tom Quigley, who has an incredible eye. But even I can tell if a horse is fit and powerful and ready to run—and that’s just by looking at the butt. When I first got into horses, Pete Fornatale and I were at Saratoga, hanging out with the Brothers Clancy—two guys who knew a thing or two about horse flesh, having grown up around horses their whole lives. I believe it was Joe Clancy who uttered these descriptive words that have stuck with me all these years later: “Check out that one. He has an ass like the back end of a Westchester bus!”

I don’t use that line in my seminar because most Californians don’t know where Westchester is, but you get the point…maybe.

I do not claim to be an expert, but all I know is what I have learned over the past 25 years about horses, handicapping, and paddock picks. A well-built butt on an equine athlete typically translates into a good performance in a sprint race. In the Newcomers’ Seminar, I also talk about looking for negative clues in order to bet against horses, like spotting kidney sweat. Most of you probably know what that is, but for those who don’t, come to the Newcomers’ Seminar next year!

So, getting to the photo…Terri went down to the paddock before the stakes race on Friday (invited by her good friend Stephanie), the I’m Smokin for 2-year-old Cal-breds. Terri just happened to take a picture of the winner in the paddock, Dr. No No, before the race—and not just any picture…she took one of his butt! After the race, Terri showed me the picture and said, “Look, I took the best photo of his butt! And there was no kidney sweat either, just like you say in your seminar.”

Someone was paying attention all those past Thursdays.

“I guess that one was ‘built to win’,” Terri continued, quoting a phrase that a trainer friend of hers uses when he sees quality horse flesh—and he should know. He’s been one of the best in the business for a very long time, especially when it comes to 2-year-olds (and I’m not talking about Baffert).

Anyway…next time you’re at the track, be sure to check out the horses’ butts—especially in sprint races. For a newcomer, going to the paddock is a way to participate, stay involved, and at least make a somewhat informative decision. For those more advanced, it’s one of the last bastions of handicapping that the computer teams can’t quantify, because they are not on track and they can’t work physicality into their algorithms. Take that edge any time you can get it—no ifs, ands, or butts!

The Feature(s)

It’s Rusty Brown’s world…we all just live in it! What a summer Mr. Brown has had. If not for his various partnerships on several of his winning horses, he might be leading owner this meet. I’ll go back and look at all the charts once the meet is over, but he’s had a heck of a summer—and the Brown train kept on rolling in Friday’s I’m Smokin Stakes, a 6-furlong main-track affair for Cal-bred 2-year-olds. He had an ownership interest in three horses in the race—all with big shots—but it was his outside horse, the aforementioned #7 Dr. No No, who got the job done in the tightest of photos. Congrats to Brown, Klein, and Lebherz, who all co-own the horse, and a hat tip to trainer Brian Koriner, who got this recent maiden-breaker to take another big step forward in this race.

As for today…we’ve got three stakes races on tap:

Race 5: the $100K Juvenile Fillies Turf for 2-year-old fillies going one mile on the lawn. My wise-guy play is #4 DOUBLE BAY (IRE) (8/1) simply because you know I am a big proponent of OptixEQ, and the OptixNOTES for this horse out of her debut were all positive. She was off slowly, made a move, and galloped out strongly in a 5-furlong turf sprint for a trainer who is better second-time out and going long. More importantly, OptixNOTES projects improvement, so I’m perfectly willing to pay to find out if she will move forward at 8/1. (That said, I do think the top-two choices are legit, so I will use them as well in my exotics.

Race 7: $250K John C. Mabee (G2) for fillies and mares going 9-furlongs on turf. I wasn’t crazy about this race. It’s a short field, and I don’t really see much value in here—but #3 OAKHURST (4/1) would be a cool gal to win, since she was one of our Spot Plays earlier in the meet, and she did the business at 5/1. This is a big step up, but I do like the way she came home last time.

Race 10: $300K Del Mar Debutante (G1) for 2-year-old fillies going 7-furlongs on the main track. I did this race as one of two write-ups for the DMTC.com online contest, so you can read my analysis by clicking on the Del Mar “Race of the Day” Analysis button at www.frankscatoni.com.

Friday’s DMTC.com Contest Race Recap

Speaking of contest races…Friday’s result worked out, though #11 Wishtheyallcouldbe was bet down to 9/2 off a 12/1 morning-line, but the bet down proved telling, as she stalked the pace in a good spot while in the clear, and she was game to the wire for the victory. She paid $11.20 to win. Hat tip to the Beach Boys!

Spot Play

Ooof! I don’t know what the heck happened with Friday’s Spot Play. In Race 1, my pick, #6 Scary Fast Smile, took steady money, knocking his price down to 2/1 at the off from his morning-line of 5/1. In fact, he went favored in the last tick, and halfway through the race, I was counting my money. He was in a good forwardly placed spot on the outside, and it looked like he was just cruising around the turn—and then when the real running was about to start, the horse found nothing. I think something might have gone wrong with this $10K claimer. The jock never really asked him turning for home, despite looking like the winner for the first three-quarters of the race. Oh, well. They’re ten-dime claimers for a reason—they go in and out of form more than I go in and out of the bathroom in the middle of the night!

Can we get back on the good foot today? Ugh, I don’t have a typical Spot Play today, but I can tell you that you all need to get involved in Race 6, a $20K open-claimer contested at 6-furlongs on the main track. The morning-line favorite is #4 Jalen Journey (7/2), but I wouldn’t bet this horse with your money—so if there’s anyone else you like, double your bets! No knock to this horse, but he just beat $8K claimers with a perfect set-up from off the pace on a closer friendly track. He now moves way up in class, and I’m having a hard time seeing an 8-year-old ridgling take another step forward.

Upcoming Seminars

--Saturday, 9/9: Saturday Handicapping Seminar with my buddy, horse owner and horseplayer, “Radar” Rob Talstra: 12:35 p.m. PDT in the Plaza de Mexico inside the Stretch Run entrance and livestreamed on my Twitter feed @ScatoniSureShot: Weekend Handicapping Seminar (dmtc.com).

--Sunday, 9/10: “Best Bet” livestream is in search of a new guest, so stay tuned. Unfortunately, Dylan Donnelly, who was originally scheduled, is under the weather, and I know that he would not want to bring anything but his A-game on Sunday, so we’ll circle back with him in the fall: Best Bet (dmtc.com).

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Be sure to check out www.frankscatoni.com for what’s good every day during the Del Mar meet.

As I always say: Good luck to us…and let’s make some money!!!