Frankly Speaking - Del Mar, August 31st

A Tip of the Cap to Flightline...and Paula Capestro!

A Tip of the Cap!

One year is a very long time, but it seems like it was only yesterday when all of Del Mar—and racing fans from all across the country—were excited to see what the great Flightline would do in the 2022 Pacific Classic (G1). This year’s renewal of the race, which takes place on Saturday, might not have the same aura of greatness surrounding it, but it’s a really competitive affair that drew a nice full field—and Del Mar is going to make darn sure that no one will forget the absolute display of brilliance that Flightline showed in this prestigious race last year.

For those of you who might not remember: Flightline was a perfect 4-for-4 when he was asked to go from his one-turn win in the Metropolitan Mile (G1)—a race regularly regarded among breeders as a stallion maker—to the taxing two-turn distance of 10-furlongs in the Pacific Classic (G1), so he was entering uncharted territory. Sure, there were never any questions surrounding this horse’s innate ability, but there were some questions surrounding how he would handle such a Herculean task of running two extra furlongs—around two turns for the first time—with no stamina-building races on his form.

If you haven’t seen last year’s Pacific Classic (G1), I encourage you to watch it here. It was one of the most impressive performances by a racehorse I’ve ever seen. Not only did he win; but he did it so effortlessly, and in fast time. All of the hype and accolades surrounding him were warranted, so there was a lot of excitement heading into last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).

So this Saturday, Del Mar is giving away a Flightline baseball cap to the first 10,000 fans, and it’s just another example of how omnipresent Flightline has been this summer, even though he last raced back in November and retired shortly after his scintillating victory in the Breeders’ Cup.

A couple of weeks ago, I talked to 2022 Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) champ, Drew Coatney, on my Sunday “Best Bet” livestream, and we rehashed just how he won that tournament, using a similar strategy as the 2021 champ, Matt Miller (who will be this Saturday’s “Best Bet” guest!). I still can’t believe Drew had the stones to do this, but heading into the Classic (G1), Drew had amassed $97K (from a starting bankroll of $7,500) by hitting a couple of key targets on his road map toward his goal of finishing with around $150K.

For those of you who missed the show (and Drew’s appearance last year as well), Drew described how he sets targets for himself when playing contests (and oftentimes in daily play too). He thought he’d need around $150K to win the tournament (and the top-heavy first prize of $410K that came with it), so he mapped out a few key win bets and doubles throughout the day to get him to a point where he could go all-in on Flightline in the Classic (G1). Easier said than done, right?

Well, Drew hit his markers, and his bankroll was at $97K when the odds opened for the main event. Now most people—including myself—might have second thoughts about sticking to the original plan of going all-in. I mean, can you imagine betting almost a hundred grand on a racehorse? Wow. But Drew had his convictions, and there he stood at the self-service machine punching the $500 win bet “Repeat” button more times than I can even keep count.

Drew held up his end of the bargain—and so did Flightline. Fortunately for Drew, it wasn’t even a sweat. Flightline dominated that field and capped off an incredible—albeit brief—career.

Back to the Pacific Classic (G1)…that same Pacific Classic (G1) last year was also the first time my buddy Joe Marcello (also a guest on “Best Bet”) came out to Del Mar. He decided he needed to see Flightline in person. So he booked a flight from his home base in Florida to watch the eventual champ romp in person. I wrote about that a week ago, along with the fact that Joe also came out to Del Mar that fall to see a horse named Joe Don Looney! No one ever said horseplayers weren’t crazy!

Anyway…we are just a few days away from the 2023 running of the Pacific Classic (G1), and I can’t wait for the day. Saturday’s card will be incredible (with a mandatory Pick 6 payout on the wagering menu), and it will be fun to see so many patrons rocking their new Flightline caps.

There won’t be any Flightlines in the race this year—but perhaps we will see the future 2023 Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge champion. That’s right. There’s an on-track handicapping tournament, and yours truly will be playing in it, looking to earn a seat to that big one. I finished ninth in this Del Mar tourney last year, so I’m looking to improve my performance. I know I need to play more aggressively and maximize my opinions as much as possible. However, I don’t think I’m quite there yet to bet $97K on one horse, so perhaps I’m handcuffing myself a little bit—but I am going to take a page out of Drew and Matt’s playbook and come up with a road map to victory. Wish me luck!

Spot Play

It was nice to finally catch something really good on Sunday when we zeroed in on #6 R Swirvin Girvin in Race 3, a $50K age-restricted claimer for 3-year-old fillies going 6.5-furlongs on the main track. As I mentioned in the column: as my long-gone friend Jeff Sotman used to say, “Short field, long price.”

I had a feeling this race was ripe for an upset, as the top few choices didn’t look like anything special, and R Swirvin Girvin had plenty of dirtied up from since Paula Capestro claimed her back East back in January. I’m not tooting my own horn here, but I say this to make a point. This was a very hard horse to come up with on paper if you just occasionally pick up the Form and play Southern California. The only reason I looked really closely at this gal was because I follow and study this circuit—and I know that Capestro has a very good track record over a long period of time winning races at Del Mar with horses just like this. Because of that historical knowledge, I was able to dig a lot deeper and make a solid case for the horse.

I know guys who can fire away all day long at multiple tracks and still win—I’m not one of those guys! I’m a terrible multi-tasker, but I’m really good when I can just focus on one thing—so the fact that I’ve been almost exclusively focusing on SoCal racing the last decade or so really helped me in this instance.

R Swirvin Girvin did what I expected her to do, and she returned $19.80 in a six-horse field.

As for my other spot play, #9 No Slo Mo in Race 8, lightning didn’t strike twice. This was a good race to get involved in, and I thought I had made a pretty good case for this horse in this $25K claimer contested at 8.5-furlongs on turf, but he was rank early and then had to move wide before encountering some trouble in the lane. He ended up finishing ninth at 12/1. Yeah, he didn’t have the best of trips, but he wasn’t very good either, so I’ll take the L on this one! Both the winner and second-place horse were nearly 6/1, so I hope some of you got involved and did well in what was clearly a very contentious race.

What’s in store for us today? Well, today’s play is going to focus on a horse whom I think will outrun his odds, and that’s #5 ARMAN (12/1) in Race 5, an $80K optional-claiming/N2X contested at 5-furlongs on the turf with the rails at 30-feet. First off, let me say that I think D’Amato holds the keys in this race. He has the first two choices, #6 Unconquerable Keen (IRE) (5/2) and #4 Standing O (3/1), and they both look like they are going to run big races. I’m not advocating being a hero here and trying to beat both of them outright, but I do think that #5 ARMAN (12/1) can make things interesting, especially if you’re playing verticals.

This 3-year-old just lost to both of these older runners, but it was his first time running in a turf sprint for Peter Miller, so I’m expecting massive improvement, especially since this horse was off a step slow and then had to race very wide in that 5-furlong turf sprint. He now gets a massive jock upgrade from the very-average Vazquez to the very-hot Fresu. Win or lose, this guy is tremendous value at 12/1.

The Feature

I had zero imagination in Sunday’s feature, the $125K Rancho Bernardo Handicap (G3) for fillies and mares going 6.5-furlongs on the main track, but that turned out to be the right line of thinking. #8 Eda, for Bob Baffert, was just too damn good. She broke alertly, stalked the pace, took over when asked, opened up, and won easily as #1 Kirstenbosch tried valiantly to cut into Eda’s winning margin late. The chart says 1-1/2 lengths in the end, but Eda won as easy as you please at 4/5.

Today is a featureless Thursday, but the DMTC.com online contest race (R7) is a pretty interesting one. It’s a $40K optional-claiming/N1X for fillies and mares going 5-furlongs on turf with the rails at 30-feet. I don’t think either of the top-two choices have to win, especially since they both like to do their bidding on the front end, and I can really see a world in which they cancel each other out. I came up with a 5/1 shot—and there are a few others you can consider as well. Want to know whom? You can read all about them by clicking the Del Mar “Race of the Day” Analysis button at www.frankscatoni.com.

The Dynamic Duo: O’Neill and Fresu

I hope you guys were listening! I sniffed this out two weeks ago, as soon as Fresu and O’Neill started to heat up by winning two races together on one day—with Fresu winning a third for another trainer on that same day. They’ve both continued their hot hand (together and alone), making big moves up the standings. In fact, after a slightly cold beginning, O’Neill is now currently leading trainer with 16 wins—and Fresu, who was quietly flying under the radar—is now second in the jock standings with 23 wins (just five behind Hernandez).

The public still hasn’t entirely caught on to Fresu, so remember what I always say: You need to spot a trend before it actually becomes one! Let’s keep an eye on the Fresu train the rest of the meet, as his jock agent, Tom Knust, has been doing a great job.

This Week at a Glance

--Thursday, 8/31: “Free & Easy” Thursdays; Newcomers’ Seminar

--Friday, 9/1: 3 p.m. PDT first post; Happy Hour; Turf Club Fridays

--Saturday, 9/2: *first post of 1:30 p.m. PDT; Pacific Classic (G1); Del Mar Handicap (G2); Del Mar Mile (G2); Green Flash Handicap (G3); Torrey Pines Stakes (G3); Flightline Cap Giveaway; Mandatory Pick 6 payout; Pat O’Brien (G2); Pacific Classic Betting Challenge; Saturday Handicapping Seminar

--Sunday, 9/3: *first post of 1:30 p.m. PDT; Del Mar Derby (G2); Shared Belief Stakes; Family Fun Day; Taste of the Turf Club; “Best Bet” livestream

--Monday, 9/4: *first post of 1:30 p.m. PDT; Generous Portion Stakes; Tranquility Lake Stakes

Upcoming Seminars

--Thursday, 8/31: Newcomers’ Seminar at 1:05 p.m. PDT in the Plaza de Mexico inside the Stretch Run entrance: Newcomers' Seminar (dmtc.com).

--Saturday, 9/2: Saturday Handicapping Seminar with the one-and-only Michelle Yu: 12:35 p.m. PDT in the Plaza de Mexico inside the Stretch Run entrance (and livestreamed on my Twitter feed @ScatoniSureShot: Weekend Handicapping Seminar (dmtc.com).

--Sunday, 9/3: “Best Bet” livestream with 2021 Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge Champion Matt Miller at 11:00 a.m. PDT on all of Del Mar’s social media platforms, including YouTube: Best Bet (dmtc.com).

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Be sure to check out www.frankscatoni.com for what’s good every day during the Del Mar meet.

As I always say: Good luck to us…and let’s make some money!!!