Frankly Speaking - Daily Del Mar Notes
Frankly Speaking - Daily Del Mar Notes
By Frank Scatoni
Similar to what Nick is doing with his Daily Saratoga Notebook, Frank Scatoni is on board for Del Mar.
Everyone will get the daily notes for Thursday and Friday cards but we will reserve the weekend cards for ITM Plus Subscribers.
Del Mar Dreaming
It’s like Christmas in July—the start of the Del Mar summer meeting, the 84th time the track has opened its doors…and everyone seems to be chomping at the bit because it’s a sellout. That’s right: there are no tickets available. In fact, if you drive on the 5 freeway, there are Sigalert signs saying that Opening Day at Del Mar is SOLD OUT! In other words, if you don’t have a ticket, don’t even bother trying to get in. It really is the most anticipated date on the San Diego social calendar, and that’s saying something because the horses usually go up against the always popular Comic Con this time of year. However, if you have to miss Opening Day, don’t worry: there will be 30 more days after Friday for you to visit what author William Murray used to call “the quirky little oval by the sea.”
So what’s in store for Opening Day? Wow! We’ve got a doozy of a card: 10 races, 114 horses entered throughout the day, and competitive races with no real standouts at short prices. In fact, the lowest morning-line favorite is 5/2. It’s an embarrassment of riches, but my advice to you would be: choose your spots carefully…and pay attention! What happens in the first week can help make the picture a little clearer as the meet continues: potential track biases, hot trainers, ship-and-win horses, etc.
Après-Racing
The track is not the only sellout this weekend. I’ll be home handicapping, so no parties for me, but The Official After Party (at Rancho Valencia) is sold out as well. There are other parties around town, including one at L’Auberge, but if the party scene isn’t for you, there are plenty of places to go eat and unwind after the races. Just be sure to make a reservation. And when all else fails, you can always go walk on the beach…for free. That’s not too bad!
$1 Million Pick 6 Single Ticket Bonus
For the first time since Del Mar moved to a jackpot-style Pick 6 wager, the track will be offering a $1 million guaranteed payout if there is only one ticket holder in the Pick 6. Normally, I shy away from these types of jackpot bets—unless there is a mandatory force-out of the pool—but this card is so competitive that there is a chance that someone could be the only winner. That said, I also think there’s a chance that no one actually hits the Pick 6 at all—that’s how tough the card is, with several races where you need to go really deep.
Speaking of mandatory force-outs, the track has announced that there will be “multiple other days during the meet where a ‘mandatory payout’ will be in effect for the Pick 6. Those additional dates will be announced after the track is up and running.” I’ll remind you when those dates come up because there will be positive expected value on the force-out days, and that’s really the time to tackle this wager.
Info, Links, and Other Suggestions
Dean Keppler does the daily race analysis for the home team here at In the Money Media, so it would be wise to follow him every day during the meet. Here is the link to his Opening Day selections: https://bit.ly/47199Pu.
I did a podcast with our man Peter Thomas Fornatale, where we talked in general about Del Mar, but we also did a deep dive into the Late P5. You would be wise to save some bankroll for this wager because it should pay really well. Here is the link to that: https://bit.ly/3Q8ekHC.
As some of you might know, every Sunday during the meet at 11 a.m. PDT, I host the “Best Bet” livestream from Del Mar, where I have a guest who picks out a few spot plays for the card and gives out suggested wagers. But for the first time, we did an Opening Day preview show. Dean Keppler was my guest, so feel free to check it out here: https://bit.ly/46UQMM5.
And lastly, I do a horse-by-horse analysis for the online Del Mar contest race, which can be found on the Del Mar site here: https://bit.ly/43BVSKv. Or you can always go to www.FrankScatoni.com for easy access links to all the stuff I’m doing this summer.
Today’s Feature
Opening Day tradition continues with the $100K Oceanside Stakes, a one-mile turf affair for 3-year-olds. It’s one of my favorite races of the year because it’s part of the sophomore turf challenge, which also includes the La Jolla (G3) and the Del Mar Derby (G2). Do you want to know how old I am? Well, I remember the good old days when the Oceanside drew so many horses that it was split into two divisions! That being said, I know that times have changed, so I’m perfectly happy with a solid field of 14 entered to greet the starter in today’s competitive restricted race, which is for 3-year-olds only who are non-winners of a sweepstakes of $50K at one mile or over in 2023. What a heck of a race! Hats off to the racing office for starting the meet in grand style.
You can find out who I like here: https://bit.ly/43BVSKv.
Spot Play
The closest thing I have to an automatic play for me takes place in Race 3: a Maiden Special Weight for fillies and mares going one mile on the Jimmy Durante turf course with the rails set at 0-feet.
I do think that #5 NORTH EAST STAR (5/2)—who is the shortest price on the morning-line all day—is the one to beat and is sitting on a big race after prepping in a turf sprint in her first start in the country. She was way off the pace in a 6-furlong race, but she flew home to finish third. She figures to move forward big-time on the stretch-out, and I will certainly use her…but she’s not the horse I want to talk about.
I’m zeroing in on #1 OAK STREET BEACH (6/1). This filly comes into this race with one of my favorite angles: when Tom Proctor stretches out a horse from a sprint to one mile on the turf, go to the windows! It’s an automatic bet for me, and it has been for a very long time. I just know how good he is with that move, but if you want a stat to back it up, according to Daily Racing Form, Proctor is 27 percent with a $3.75 R.O.I. in the past year. That’s a ridiculous return on your investment.
So what else do I like about her? She’s making the third start of her career; her debut turf sprint was really good; and you can draw a line through her last race, which came on dirt, where she showed sharp early speed and weakened. That should prove a useful prep for this spot.
As I always say: Good luck to us…and let’s make some money!!!