Derby Day - $3 ALL 3-YEAR-OLD PICK 3
by Frank R. Scatoni
$3 ALL 3-YEAR-OLD PICK 3 MATRIX
Frank R. Scatoni
Leg 1: Race 6: $600K Pat Day Mile (G2)
We kick off this special Pick 3 with a tough renewal of the $600K Pat Day Mile (G2), a one-turn 8-furlong main-track affair for 3-year-olds. Baffert has two in here, including the morning-line favorite. To be Baffert…or to beat Baffert—that is the question!
#1 MADAKET ROAD (2/1) was clearly campaigned to get to the Kentucky Derby (G1), but he did himself no favors, unable to ration his speed and then lacking the stamina to contend with the best going 10-furlongs, hence this much easier and much shorter spot on the Derby Day undercard. He’ll use his speed to flee the rail, but there are other horses outside of him who should keep him honest. Can he win the battle and the war? I know there is ability here, and I have to think a one-turn mile will hit him squarely between the eyes, but I’d like nothing more than to beat this guy on most of my tickets, since he offers no value in the first leg of this Pick 3. That said, I don’t need to be a hero either, and I will use him on some saver tickets. GRADE: B.
#2 BUILT (7/2) ran a mixed bag of races around two turns in his attempt to gain traction on the Derby Trail, to no avail, so he’s another one who should find this group a lot easier than some of the Derby hopefuls he was facing. I really like his one-turn 7-furlong victory as a juvenile, and I know he’ll be super fit, cutting back from those two-turn affairs. What I like most, however, is the trip he’s going to get: tracking in the garden spot behind the speed. GRADE: A.
#3 CALIFORNIA BURRITO (12/1) got away with some slow early splits two and three back when running the best races of his life going two turns on the Turfway Park synth—but I don’t think he’s fast enough to make the lead today against much faster horses. The good news is that he doesn’t need the lead, as is evidenced by his sharp maiden-breaker where he stalked going 7-furlongs before drawing off to win easily in a $150K maiden-claimer. He’ll be fit coming out of a 9-furlong synth affair, so you can expect him to be grinding away through the lane, but I think he’s a cut below the best in here in this type of race. GRADE: X.
#4 SMOKEN WICKET (12/1) is a Louisiana-bred whose best work has come against his fellow Cajuns in races where he was expected to win as the heavy favorite in 6-furlong sprint races. His one 8-furlong try was no good, but he was an overmatched 17/1 in the Champagne (G1) last year as a juvenile. I can see him attending the early pace before weakening, much like he did in the 7-furlong Lafayette at Keeneland last time. GRADE: X.
#5 GATE TO WIRE (6/1) started his career on turf and then synth before finally tasting dirt in the 7-furlong Swale at Gulfstream Park in February, and he responded with a monster win at 13/1. That prompted Pletcher to try him in the Fountain of Youth (G2), but he showed why the first four races of his career came at 6-furlongs or shorter. I like that Pletcher freshened him up and brings him back in this one-turn mile, especially with that 7-furlong win to build upon. He’s looking at a good stalking trip, and it can’t hurt that Prat bothers to ride. GRADE: B.