Del Mar Thurs 8/6

By Adam Discepolo | @adamdiscepolo | substack.com/adamdiscepolo

We kick off our racing week today out a Del Mar. The All Turf pick 3 on Sunday did pay well enough given that short priced horses came in and remains a good bet to be involved with for sure. Our top choice in the second leg scratched but hopefully you added in the speed of that rave the 1 and cashed your ticket as we were all over the first and last legs of that wager. On to this week and lets see if we can keep the ticket cashing rolling.

Race 1- 6,4,1,7

The 6 Nokie should take this. Her last out speed figure is the best in the group, takes a slight drop in class and now goes second off the layoff. I am always in the mindset that when horses drop, they are supposed to win and she will be going against several that have already made the drop and are still trying to win so i typically look for class droppers. The 6 looks the best and fastest on paper. The 4 Rock n Roll Song’s race two back make her a threat to our top choice but given the odds, ill give the nod to the 6. The 4 is quick but was a beneficiary of a speed favoring track last out as the pace was rated a little on the slower side. Two longer shots to use underneath are the 1 Rythem Girl who makes third start off the layoff and could take a slight step forward to help her hit the board and the 7 Super Ellie who takes a pretty steep drop in class and whose last dirt start wasnt great but that was going longer. Going back through her PP’s shes done ok at this distance going 5:0-2-0, at a big price may worth using underneath.

Race 2- 5,4,1,6

My initial thought when looking at this race is that there will not be enough pace for the likely favorite 3 Dorie Miller to close into. She has unfortunately run into slow paced affairs her last few races and I think that is probably what she ends up getting today as there isn’t a ton of pace here and would be more of an underneath horse for me. The race dynamics definitely shape up for the 1 Christel Clean who comes out of sprinting and the trainer has good stats going both turf to dirt and sprint to route. The pedigree is ok for routing so she could potentially handle the distance. However, i dont love short priced horses doing something new for the first time. Instead i will take a shot with a few others. The 5 Cecilia Street and the 6 Lino’s Angel come out of a common race finishing just heads apart yet the 6 is three times the price. I like that they are both midpack so should be forward enough where they can pounce if the 1 gets leg weary. However the 6 has yet to finish in front of the 5 in any of their common races. A longer shot I am definitely interested in is the 4 Berry Valley. You can toss the last race as it was on grass and the dirt try prior actually came back with a pretty good speed rating. That was a first start off over a year layoff. Now goes third off that layoff (second on dirt), comes out of sprint races where the trainer is 26% going sprint to route and 29% doing turf to dirt. I think this horse will be overlooked and at the price she is going to be will be an include for me.

Race 4- 4,2,3,7

I think this race will set up perfectly for the 4 Can’t Say That who should get plenty of pace to run into here. Toss the last turf effort and the race two back absolutely make her a top contender. The other likely winner could possibly be the 7 Good Golly Dolly who makes first start in the Knapp barn who is 19% off the claim. However is claiming off O’neill and the last race really was a clunker so hard to trust at a short price. The race two back however makes her a contender so not sure which horse we will get. I think there are cases to be made for a few long shots to include. The 2 Crypto Cash has arguably run her best races going this distance which you can see three back. That speed figure is close enough to todays group so maybe she wants longer all along. At a monster price ill pay to find out. The other interesting long shot is the 3 Busy Makin Munny. Shes making a drop in class and has run against some tougher company with a few next out winners. I can give her last race an excuse as she stumbled at the break, with a cleaner trip she is definitely dangerous and will be up front and will be the speed horse i want. Her back races and speed figures can definitely make her competitive and i think will be overlooked as well.

Race 7- 1,5,4,8

I will take horses with experience over those that don’t especially that have run good initial speed figures. If one of these firsters are freaks so be it, but I have seen even the best trained horses have some greenness first out. This brings me to the 1 Saucier, in general you can toss a horses last race prior to a layoff and thats what i will do here. If we toss her last race, she has produced some pretty big speed figures. If the freshening helped at all or gets her to take a step forward she will be tough to handle at a good price. Her race two back produced a next out winner who kept similar speed figures which should be good enough here. The 5 Convo got bumped at the break and was wide and still ran a credible enough speed figure. A cleaner break, better trip and improvement now going second off the layoff should make her a contender as well. I will take a shot with these two over the firsters who are obvious.