Breeders' Cup Friday - Late Pick 3 Matrix
by Frank R. Scatoni
ITM Breeders’ Cup Friday, 11/1/24
LATE PICK 3 (R8-R10)
There are so many betting opportunities on the Breeders’ Cup menu, so we need to pick and choose our spots. I know I’ll be playing the Late Pick 5, as well as the Late Pick 4, but if I flame out in those wagers, I know I’m going to fire away in the Late Pick 3, because my strongest opinion on the card comes in Race 9, where I want to beat the morning-line favorite, as well as the second choice—so I need to have a sequential bet to leverage my opinion.
So let’s take a look at this Late Pick 3 sequence with a $0.50 minimum.
Note: I did my usual horse-by-horse analysis, making letter grades for each horse. I’ll include the MATRIX after the analysis. You can mix and match as you see fit, but if Lake Victoria (Ire) (8/5) in Race 8 is a strong “A” for you, you’ll need to whack her combos several times. You can use the double probables to get a feel for how much value the sequence will have if she does what she’s supposed to do—but there’s also tremendous value in beating her, which is why I chose a few other “A” horses to really shake things up. Good luck!
Race 8: $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) for 2-year-old fillies going 8-furlongs on the lawn with the rails at 0-feet.
This race appears to be a showdown between the UK import, #1 LAKE VICTORIA (IRE) (8/5), and the California sensation, #7 THOUGHT PROCESS (5/2). We can’t play both in the Pick 3, so we need to make a stand. That said, maybe we can make some real money and beat both of them!
#1 LAKE VICTORIA (IRE) (8/5) is the boss lady. She’s undefeated, and she’s already won two Group Ones. But if we are going to be cynical, we can say that she’s only raced on straightaways, and she’s never been beyond 7-furlongs. I’m not sure any of that matters, but it is enough to have one ticket singling her and another ticket using several other horses. GRADE: A.
#2 NITROGEN (15/1) was 41/1 in her prep for this event, and she finished third after trying to wire the field. It was a good effort, and I’m sure she’ll improve off of that, but this gal is still a maiden, so she’ll have to prove her mettle against winners. GRADE: X.
#3 CORRETO (30/1) should be fit after a decent third in the 8.5-furlong Miss Grillo (G2), where she lost to a few of today’s foes. She was 8/1 in there, and she ran to those odds. I do like that she finally gets a decent post, but she will need to improve today to get the W. GRADE: X.
#4 SCYTHIAN (12/1) won the Miss Grillo (G2) at 11/1, marking her second victory in a row after breaking her maiden against New York-bred boys. It was a nice effort, but things went right for her that day. I’m fine seeing if she can repeat that last race. GRADE: X.
#5 TOTALLY JUSTIFIED (20/1) broke her maiden in a stakes race, and then she just missed in the Jessamine (G2), which is the Keeneland prep for this event. She likes to be close to the pace, but a stalking trip is not typically the winning journey over this turf course. That said, 20/1 is a pretty good price on an improving filly, so that makes her usable as a secondary contender, but I prefer others for the W. GRADE: B.
#6 VIRGIN COLADA (20/1) probably won’t be 20/1, since Chad Brown has had good success in this race, but no matter what the price, this gal is a must-use. I know she lost to a few of these the last two times, but she knows how to finish races, and I actually think the shorter trip will benefit her, since Prat will know to be more aggressive early in this shorter race. GRADE: A.
#7 THOUGHT PROCESS (5/2) has been terrific, and I really can’t say anything bad about her, but she will be facing proper turf runners today. You all know I love California racing, but I’m the first to admit that our turf horses are not nearly as good as the East Coast horses, let alone the foreigners. And as I mentioned earlier, I can’t use both Lake Victoria (Ire) and this gal, so if she wins, I lose! GRADE: X.
#8 HEAVENS GATE (IRE) (12/1) is less fancied than her stablemate, Lake Victoria (Ire), but she comes into this race off a game victory in a Grade 3 at the Curragh. I like that. I don’t like that she’s never been around a turn or that Moore (rightfully) sides with the rail horse, but she’s as consistent as they come, so why not use her at a big price? GRADE: A.
#9 KILWIN (20/1) is undefeated, but both of her starts came in turf sprints. I do like that she was favored in each race, but we will find out today if she’s just a closing sprinter or a proper two-turn horse. GRADE: X.
#10 ABIENTOT (30/1) is another gal who has been only sprinting, so I can’t support her in this spot. She’s another one who will have to answer the two-turn question. GRADE: X.
#11 FIERY LUCY (GB) (30/1) has finished behind Heavens Gate (Ire) a few times before, but she hasn’t been disgraced, and I actually like the fact that she’s been around a bend (granted, it was right-handed, but she won!). I’ve seen worse 30/1 shots. GRADE: B.
#12 MAY DAY READY (20/1) is perfect, and I’m a little surprised she’s so high on the morning-line. I know the post is no picnic, but Dettori is no dummy, so he’ll at least try to give this gal the best trip possible as she looks to win her fourth race in a row. GRADE: B.
#13 VIXEN (15/1) tried her best in the Natalma (G1), which is typically a good prep for this event. I like that she’s tactical, so she can at least try her best to angle over—but that also means she’s looking at a wide stalking trip—and that’s not a good thing. GRADE: X.
#14 ANSHODA (IRE) (30/1) was doing fine until she had to go a mile in a Group 2 overseas. Also, her best race came on soft ground, and she won’t get that today, even if it rains all day (which it won’t). GRADE: X.
#15 SUPA SPEED (30/1) (AE) has plenty of upside, but I’m not sure she’s good enough to beat the best in here. I’m against the gal who just beat her on the square in the Del Mar prep for this, so how can I back her? GRADE: X.
#16 TIGERISH (30/1) (AE) has been beaten by a few of these, and even though I can make excuses, it would shock me if a California horse won this race from a far outside post. GRADE: X.
#17 ACQUITTED (30/1) (AE) ran a career best when getting on turf, but that came in a sprint. This is a whole new ballgame. Of course, I trust Mandella to find the bottom here, but I’m not sure this is the spot to do that. GRADE: X.
Race 9: $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) for 2-year-olds going 8.5-furlongs on the main track.
This is always an important race—and even though the winner typically doesn’t fare well in the Derby (G1), it’s always a good feeling watching classy 2-year-olds run and then to think how they might mature as older horses. That said, let’s talk about gambling! As much as I respect the morning-line favorite, I feel like he’s an absolute play against, and to be honest, I’m not feeling the second choice either.
#1 EASTERN AVENUE (5/2) has run two monster races, so it’s no surprise that he’s the 5/2 morning-line favorite—but can he run a third one in a row? Each of his wins have come on the engine with uncontested leads. He’s going to have to gun hard from the rail because there’s no way one of the Baffert horses is going to let him make an easy lead. If he wins, good for him. Maybe the rail will be golden and he can ride it to victory—but I can’t take a short price on a horse who put up two big figs while basically racing in a vacuum. Let’s see how he does with some pressure. GRADE: X.
#2 GETAWAY CAR (20/1) can easily put the heat on Eastern Avenue if he wants to. That might compromise his chances, but Baffert has two others in here, so who cares? I know he just lost as the favorite to his stablemate, so he’ll have to do a bit better today, but that’s possible with Baffert calling the shots. GRADE: B.
#3 HILL ROAD (30/1) has the breeding to run on any surface, but he was no good in a Group 1 overseas after romping on turf in his debut, so this seems like an experiment to me. GRADE: X.
#4 FEROCIOUS (6/1) has been burdened by inside posts, and I have to think that he’s going to appreciate this spot, where he can stalk in the clear. I know he lost to a few of these before, but I’m feeling him today. GRADE: A.
#5 JONATHAN’S WAY (9/2) has shown a lot of ability, and you have to like that he has a wire win and also a closing win, showing that he can pass horses. The only concern is that he has never been two turns, so we’ll see what he’s made of. GRADE: B.
#6 CITIZEN BULL (10/1), the second Baffert, wired his rivals in the American Pharoah (G1) in preparation for this, but I don’t think he needs the lead to win. He should get a good stalking trip, and I see no reason why he shouldn’t run a decent race here. GRADE: B.
#7 GAMING (8/1), the third Baffert, is undefeated, but he’s yet to go two turns, so we’ll see if that stellar sprint form translates into a two-turn victory. I’m surprised that Prat sides with another, but Irad is just fine in my book. GRADE: A.
#8 SHIN BELIEVE (10/1) cost $800K earlier this year, and he showed why when he crushed 14 other maidens in his debut in Japan, going off at 9/5. He won a 9-furlong race, and that’s not easy to do. That said, this is a whole new ballgame. And while I respect all of the Japanese horses, this seems a bit ambitious to me. GRADE: X.
#9 ECORO AZEL (30/1) cost $215K earlier in the year, and he paid instant dividends when winning his debut in Japan at 5/2 in a 6-furlong sprint. He hit the shelf and probably needed his last one when he lost at 7/1. The chart call says he rallied, so that was probably a prep, but he still needs a big step forward. Maybe he can surprise in the exotics, since he must be sitting on a big race, but there are some good Americans in here. GRADE: X.
#10 CHANCER MCPATRICK (3/1) has Prat’s allegiances, since he won with this guy three times in a row, including two Grade Ones. That said, what kind of trip is he looking at from out here? And how many deep closers do you see win on California dirt? He’s a nice horse, but he has a lot going against him. Let’s beat him at a short price! GRADE: X.
Race 10: $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) for 2-year-olds going 8-furlongs on the lawn with the rails at 0-feet.
We get no free squares here. The pay-leg of this sequence is pretty competitive, but I can assure you that if we beat Eastern Avenue and Chancer McPatrick in the previous race, any combo should pay pretty well!
#1 SATONO CARNAVAL (JPN) (20/1) has done nothing wrong in his home nation, but his two wins came sprinting, and he’s been off since July. I prefer others. GRADE: X.
#2 DREAM ON (20/1) was handled by a few of these last time, so he’ll need to show more oomph late. That might be possible with the jock switch to Jose Ortiz, but there’s work to do here. GRADE: X.
#3 NOBLE CONFESSOR (15/1) was game in defeat when trying the turf for the first time in the Pilgrim (G2) back East. He did lose to one of today’s foes, so he’ll have to turn the tables on him, but what if he moves forward in his second turf start? Irad doesn’t seem to care, since he bailed for the other Pletcher. GRADE: X.
#4 AL QUDRA (IRE) (4/1) did lose in his North American debut, but this guy is trained by Charlie Appleby, and this is the Breeders’ Cup, so how can you leave him off your ticket, even though the stablemate looks better? I do think that he was in it to win it last time, but he could regress and still beat these. GRADE: B.
#5 ZULU KINGDOM (IRE) (8/1) is a perfect 3-for-3, and he should be fit cutting back from two 8.5-furlong affairs. Chad Brown and Flavien Prat at 8/1? Mmmm-kay. GRADE: A.
#6 IRON MAN CAL (30/1) is a very cool horse, and I think his California form is pretty darn good—but “pretty darn good” California form doesn’t hold water at the Breeders’ Cup. If he wins, I’ll be celebrating with my buddy Andrew Brown, who owns a whisker of him. GRADE: X.
#7 SEAGULLS ELEVEN (IRE) (15/1) has been facing some tough cookies overseas, and he is probably sitting on a peak effort in the third start of his form cycle. I know Henri Matisse (Ire) just beat him two back, but this guy wasn’t disgraced. I also like that he has a win on good-to-firm ground. GRADE: A.
#8 MINARET STATION (30/1) has won two in a row, but it’s curious to me that he was 38/1 in the Bourbon (G2), yet he won like an even-money shot. He crushed that big field. Was it an anomaly? Or is he just that good and no one knew it? I kind of think that last time was the time. GRADE: X.
#9 THE WACO KID (IRE) (20/1) won a Group 3 overseas last time, but it seems like his best work has come with cut in the ground. I’m fine taking on this Euro. GRADE: X.
#10 MENTEE (15/1) will have to show he can carry his speed two turns, and with this draw, I’m not sure he’ll be able to do that. He’s never been two turns, and even though he should make the running, he’ll have to use energy from out here—and he’s got some good horses who are planning on running him down. GRADE: X.
#11 NEW CENTURY (GB) (5/2) won the Summer (G1) easily at Woodbine, but he did get the right pace set-up. There’s also a chance that he regresses off that. Sure, his Euro form is also really good, and he’s a classy horse, but given the post and a few other questions, I think you should take him on for your topline tickets. GRADE: B.
#12 AOMORI CITY (FR) (10/1) drew a tough post, but this Group 2 winner goes out for Appleby and Buick—and that’s all I need to know. GRADE: A.
#13 HENRI MATISSE (IRE) (6/1) has run some big races overseas, but he’s also a bit of a goofball, which is why O’Brien tried blinkers last time. That didn’t work, so they come off today, which I think is a good move—but I don’t like that this guy needed them in the first place. I hate to bet against this combo, but I have some concerns. GRADE: B.
#14 TENACIOUS LEADER (15/1) ran a good second in the With Anticipation (G3) two back, but he was in contention late and got outgamed as the favorite. He’ll have to use some energy to get forward position, and then what kind of trip will he get? GRADE: X.
#15 SABERTOOTH (30/1) (AE) is still a maiden, so this is a tough ask. I know he always fires and comes running on late, but how is he going to outkick the best in here from this post? GRADE: X.
#16 KALE’S ANGEL (30/1) (AE) ran a decent fourth in the local prep for this, despite a troubled start, so I respect the fact that he tried all the way to the wire. Still, he’s up against it today from out here and against this group. GRADE: X.
MATRIX
This bet depends on how much you are willing to spend on beating Eastern Avenue and Chance McPatrick. You might disagree with my assessment, and that’s fine, but I think this is an opportunity. If you want to single, Lake Victoria (Ire) is an obvious choice to start things off, but I also think Aomori City (FR) offers tremendous value as a single in the pay-leg.
