We’ve tried to leverage some new technology to generate transcripts. These notes will not be perfect, but hopefully, they will supplement the discussion.
We will have several of these and plan to cover a number of different wagers across the two days.
Mikey P. Mike Pribozie here for another In The Money Plus show. I'm doing several In The Money Plus shows here for Breeders' Cup 2024. And we're going to focus on wagering strategies because there are so many different bets that you can play during the Breeders' Cup. there There's all turf pick threes, pick fours, and tons of pick fives that you can get involved with. Pick six is everything. So we're going to maybe look at a few separate sequences, talk to some of ah our experts. And the first one of these pods, I'm going to bring in a guy that played in the BCBC last year, um definitely has a fantastic turf opinion. So I wanted to get Michael Donable here to get his opinion for Friday and the turf pick three. Michael, welcome back to Plus.
Michael Domabyl
Yeah, thanks for having me. I think I've also got some experience covering $3 minimum all pick all turf pick threes. I have that put up plenty of plenty of blog blogs on the end of money so in the money media site about the Keeneland turf pick three. So we'll try to parlay that knowledge to to the Breeders Cup sequence.
MP
Yeah, and that's why you're the perfect person for this show. and The $3 minimum pick three, a little bit of a different animal. I love that. ah the the yeah The heavier minimum, I mean, regular pick threes in the Breeders Cup are 50 cents, if I'm not mistaken. So that $3 minimum pick three definitely makes, you know, ups that ante. I mean, you're looking at a six time higher minimum than you would on those 50 cent pick threes. And the strategy has to be completely different.
Michael Domabyl
Yeah, I think it forces good habits is what I like to say with this type of sequence because a lot of times you're tempted when it's a 50 cent minimum to include include any horse that you think has a chance but those combinations get quick, it get expensive really quick when you're talking $3 a pop. So it really allow ah focus um makes you focus in on what is your actual opinion in these races and then bet it accordingly.
MP
Well, Friday is especially difficult because we have the all turf pick three, it's races six, eight, and 10. Now these are these are two year olds and you have the juvenile turf sprint, you have the juvenile Phillies turf, and then you have the juvenile, ah the boys turf races, all big full fields, all extremely difficult races. ah Michael, what's more your approach? Are you more like ah a caveman ticket guy? Are you a guy that's gonna play several different tickets?
Michael Domabyl
i For this bet in particular, I'll play a few different tickets. um What I'll try to focus in on is making sure that my opinion is my opinion has to be rock solid in two of the three legs for me to hit it. so third leg If that happens in the third leg, i'll leave myself a little bit of a buffer.
Michael Domabyl
So there's two kind of principles i want I want to apply to this bet. That's the first one is I got to be right at least two out of three times. And then the second principle is I want to wait, even though there's a $3 minimum, I still want to wait my combinations differently depending on the strength of my opinion and then also the prices of the horses I'm including. So we'll talk about it in a little bit. but you know, the second leg of the sequence has a super heavy favorite in the number one Lake Victoria, who you kind of have to decide whether you're with or against. And for me, I'm, I'm with her. um So I'll be having to play combinations that include her for higher denominations than I do the other the other horses that I'm using more as backups in that race.
MP
Yeah, definitely that's going to be the biggest, I would say probably one of the bigger favorites, especially on this first day of the Breeders' Cup this year. Now, when you talk about these $3 minimum pick threes, and you mentioned you have to be right twice, but it's just hypothetically, if this were a horse you were really strongly against, that you would definitely want to oppose, would that make you want to play this bet more? Maybe attack it, put a little bit more of your bankroll into it?
Michael Domabyl
Yeah, I think if your opinion is that you ah are completely against Lake Victoria and you be have the ability to toss her and then include a few others, then you might want to, ah you know, reserve a little bit more of your bankroll towards hitting this bet because if you're right on that opinion, then this thing's going to pay.
Michael Domabyl
ah Probably four figures plus if if she doesn't win just because of how competitive the other the other fields are But like I said, you got to go with what your opinion is in these sequences for the most part And for her, I just think she's on par or maybe even a little bit better than meditate who came and destroyed ah The best we had to offer in the Juvenile Fillies turf two years ago um and that she drew pretty well ah Like Victoria drew pretty well in the one hole was as well. So she'll be tough to beat so I'll have to work around work around her a bit and and use the other creative opinions I have in the other two legs.
MP
Well, we'll get into the sequence a little bit here and we wanted these shows to be a little more, uh, you know, wagering strategies, you know, how we're going to attack these bets. But, you know, we have to talk about the races a little bit so that the races are six, eight, and 10 here on Friday. Again, two year olds, we start in juvenile turf sprint and Michael, I thought that, uh, This race was a little spready for me. I didn't I didn't really have a huge opinion. And, you know, they're going five furlongs, two-year-olds on the turf at Delmar. A lot of Europeans in this race, extremely difficult, I think, to narrow down.
Michael Domabyl
Yeah, i think it I think it can be, but for the purposes of this wager, especially with a heavy favorite coming up in the second leg of it, I wanted to kind of use the potential that a lot of people will be spreading in my favor. and I'm going to really focus in on two potential scenarios that could happen here, and I want and i think I'll have the winner if either of those scenarios occur.
Michael Domabyl
The first one is if but the number eight Ecoro Seig is actually as good as advertised and he breaks away from there and can and can go wire to wire. I think he's the better of the speed and I think his presence in the race is really going to cause Governor Sam to be up against it, who's the other speed. But I do think that there's a potential that a few of these go at it on the front end and so I want what I think is who I think is the best closer or at least the closer that offers the best value and that's the number nine shareholder so i'll just be using those two primarily in this in this pick three sequence and if one of those two don't win then I'm probably going to be down to only a couple combinations maximum on some backup lines. um But what I really like about the number nine shareholder is he reminds me a lot of Fierceness last year where he threw in a clunker the race before the Breeders Cup and then
Michael Domabyl
But if you cover that one up, then he's right there with the rest of them. He won on firm ground at Ascot. So um those two are going to be the two for me to kick kick it off. And and as we move, try to move on to the sequence and and narrow it in when when other people are spreading.
MP
Yeah, I'm curious what this pace is in this race, especially when you have Paco on Governor Sam, because I just, you know, he's going to go. And that's, you know, this, this horse is is a one way, you know, go to the front. I mean, he's one force straight. But I do think that this pace, especially if this Japanese horse is as advertised could end up being nuclear. So for me, I would probably be you know looking for you know play a couple different scenarios but if you do play that scenario that the race could melt down I do agree that your number nine could be interesting but i think others could be interesting too I mean there's a lot of euros that i think are interesting such as the two uh the seven is interesting here you get ah ryan more afraid no brian so you know that that's the a team I probably would have to use that one
ah The 12th, Ides of March, I think is another one. Hey, no, Brian, you know, you're looking at horses that maybe could be sitting kind of in that second flight behind those speed ones. That one could be another one that could use. So I would be a little more spready here. And I'd be looking for a meltdown because like you said, ah if this, if the Japanese horses as advertised and you have Paco in the race, that makes ah this that scenario quite possible.
Michael Domabyl
Yeah, i think i mean I think if you're gonna use a few, then you're gonna really need to be narrow in the next two races, ah depending on your opinion on Lake Victoria.
MP
Well, we're going to jump to that Lake Victoria race. And we've gone over it a little bit. But you you I asked you off air, are you for or against? You said you think that she wins. So that's certainly you know it is going to bring most of your money. Would you say 90% of your money runs through that one?
Michael Domabyl
Yeah, I would say about 90%. And so I'll use a couple horses as backups in case I get through the first leg with either my eight or a nine. But I would just be using these horses at the $3 mark, whereas I'm going to be using Lake Victoria with where shareholder and And a coral siege in the previous leg probably at the $10 denomination um and so the horses I would use as backups is the number four sit the in the number six Virgin Colada and then the number 13.
MP
I like that, that's nice.
Michael Domabyl
Uh vixen, I just think those are kind of those horses are all going to be bigger prices I think the way to play this race is if you're with Lake Victoria is to be against Kind of the horses that are going to be in the middle of the market just because you're not going to get the value on your opinion uh by just picking the second and third most likely winners I think those horses are interesting just coming from new york um yeah you know yeah you can go you can do worse than having chad brown and Flavian Prat on your side um and then vixen I was very interested in back in the in the natalma
Michael Domabyl
Um, I thought she couldn't lose that day. but She ended up getting beaten by her stablemate. Uh, but I just want to have a little piece of a ticket with her in involved in it. Uh, just in case my thoughts about her going into the last race actually come to fruition here.
MP
Yeah, this is a very interesting race. I like a couple others. And like you said about that the middle of the market, I like some of update the upper end to on the 11 fiery Lucy, that's just a trip note on that one. So if you go to the in the money plus website and check out some of the trip notes, check out the trip note on fiery Lucy, because she definitely You know, I think something that you could maybe deem a positive moving forward. That one's 30 to one morning line. The 12 Mayday Ready is a horse I've been on all year. I had her when she wanted Saratoga first time out. And then I had her in those back-to-back races. Another one that had difficulty in the last race. Another, you know, very difficult trip that she overcame. So I think that, you know, she's 20 to one morning line. Another one could be interesting. I could see her 13. I think that one could be a use. And then maybe a little 8, you know,
MP
There's another Aiden O'Brien, Heaven's Gate, another one that raced pretty well last time, and she certainly has heavily raced. Seven starts coming in here. of The fact that Aiden shows up with her, you know, you would think that maybe that she has had enough, but she's here. So that'd be another one I might use if you're trying to look for alternatives to the favorite. We'll go to Race 10 here to finish up, and it's BC Juvenile turf. Now, ah since you're so, I think, slim early, are you spreading here?
Michael Domabyl
Yeah, I think ah I still have to have an opinion here that I'm that considering one of my three opinions. So the first my first opinion would be either the eight or the nine in the first leg, and then you have a couple of backups. Then the second opinion is Lake Victoria in the second leg, and then you have a couple backups. My third opinion is I'm not conceding this race to New Century and Alcudra. I think that the summer that Both of them got a big pace set up to come into in that race. And I think that's kind of inflating the the commercial figures to some extent. And so my opinion is really to take kind of some other logical horses outside of the summer stakes and make them kind of the A's as this part of the part of this ticket. The first one is the number five, Zulu Kingdom. He just reminds me a lot of Chad's winner of the juvenile Phillies turf last year, hard to justify where.
Michael Domabyl
He's coming in with um with, ah you know, not the flashiest speed figures, but just u ultra game and in victory. um And, you know, the fact that Chad, you know, has lots of two year olds in his barn and this is the one that's showing up here. I think that's noteworthy. And then the other ah piece is going to be I like I like the horses coming out of the national stakes at the Cura on a September 15th, and that's going to be the number seven seagulls 11 the number 12 Almori City and the number 13 Henry Matisse and it's not necessarily because I liked that race necessarily but I just feel like that those are the class of the field coming over from Europe um I like for the top pick Amori City with ah with Buick stick choosing
Choosing him over Al-Qudra to some extent um and then I just think that if you if a lot of the narrative around this race is a matchup between New Century and Al-Qudra and if I think you can get around those and use the other logicals that can add enough equity to the sequence to get you paid.
MP
Yeah, I agree. I think you say, you know, you're on the favorite there in the middle leg. A lot of people and a lot of buzz are going to run and a lot of tickets are going to run through those horses coming out of the summer. So you sort of, like you said, you have to kind of, you know, find ways to zig and zag around the public if you do want to get paid. And I do agree with you. I do think that this race is, is one of those ones where you're either for or against those horses. And if you're against.
MP
You're certainly, I do think, ah have a chance to cash a big ticket. One horse that I'll just bring up here, especially since you like Zulu Kingdom as the 14th tenacious leader, this horse is going to be a huge price and was just a neck away from that one at Saratoga with anticipation. So much so that they tried the dirt. They tried to breed his futurity with this one. I actually didn't mind the story that horse in that race. They tried, didn't race very well. They're back to the grass here. They don't go away. They do show up in here. So this one is going to get ignored. You get IRAD. You have speed. You talked about you know, Chad's winner last year. Well, this horse could get a similar trip from an outside post, especially close to the front. I wouldn't sell this one short. That would be one that I would be interested in and and certainly would have plenty of combos through in this all turf pick three. Well, Michael, I do feel like this was very beneficial, this analysis of not only the sequence, but your strategies for these these upper level, ah higher minimum multi-race bets.
Michael Domabyl
Yeah, I think, uh, just kind of coming up with some principles to follow help helps me organize the bets in my head and, you know, just making sure every dollar you're spending here is going towards your opinion. Um, and whether that's necessarily matter in my case, sometimes that's knowing my limitations and knowing that I might not knock it out of the park and all three opinions, but if I can get two of my three opinions home and then I'll leave myself some room for error in the third leg.
MP
Well, Mike, thanks for doing this. Thanks to everybody for listening and subscribing to In of Money Plus. Go out and attack some of these multi-leg wagers and enjoy the Breeders' Cup. Build that bankroll Friday. We've got lots of huge races this weekend. We'll see you guys next time. Have a good one.
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