Belmont $3 Turf Triple Analysis
by Frank Scatoni
$3 All Turf Pick 3 at Saratoga/Belmont
Frank R. Scatoni
INTRODUCTION
You can’t ask for a better card on this Belmont Day at Saratoga, but with stakes races galore and big, full fields, you need to choose your spots wisely. That being said, it’s always fun to try bets that aren’t offered on the regular. There has been a recent uptick in the $3 Pick 3, and I’m here for it, since I think higher minimums reward good handicapping. I also like that tracks can be creative on big days with the three races they choose.
In this case, we’ve got a $3 All Turf Pick 3, being billed as the “Saturday Triple Play (All Turf)/Belmont Turf Triple.” As mentioned, it’s a $3 minimum wager with a takeout of 19 percent. Of course, this sequence is super challenging with competitive fields, but I thought there were some interesting horses to call out, so let’s see if we can connect the dots in Races 2,5, and 9 at…the…Spaaaaaaa.
At the very least, maybe I’ll talk you onto a horse that you might not have considered, especially since I really like some prices in the first two legs (while I thought the last leg was a total crapshoot!).
Leg 1/Race 2: $80K optional-claiming/N1X for 3-year-old fillies going 8-furlongs on the Inner Turf Course
*Note: I have listed horses in post-position order (with their official program numbers), since there are coupled entries and Main-Track-Only runners entered. Please consult the official track program when placing your wagers.
We kick things off with a terrific entry-level allowance for 3-year-old fillies going a mile on the inner turf course. There are some future stakes runners in here, and I won’t be mad at you if you decide to spread a bit to get out of the first leg, but I really like someone in here whom I think can be a key play, so that’s where most of my action will be. Note: if any of the races come off the turf, all bets are off!
In post-position order:
#3 TURF ROCKET (20/1) took a while to break her maiden, and once she did, she was pitched too high in a stakes race. This is a more sensible spot, but she looks overmatched to me. GRADE: X.
#4 STORM MIAMI (IRE) (10/1) is the gal I’m going to war with, since she sports one of my favorite angles. She prepped in an N1X against older horses, and she didn’t disgrace herself as the only 3-year-old in the field. I have to think that was a prep for this, since that was her first start in the States. GRADE: A.
#5 LADY DE BERRY (4/1), the first Chad Brown entrant, ran second in a Grade 3 last year before hitting the shelf. She was favored and should have won, but she had too much to do through a slow pace. I love when Brown lays up horses and brings them back on big days. I’m sure this gal will be ready to roll. GRADE: B.
#6 SPALIDAY (3/1), the second Brown runner, just broke her maiden in stylish fashion, but I’m not sure whom she was facing. Why is she favored over her stablemate at a morning-line of 3/1? That’s confusing to me, and if she’s that price, I’m not too interested. GRADE: C.
#7 BUTTERCREAM BABE (8/1) ran second in a Grade 3 as a juvenile, but her form since then has been a bit blah. Granted, she’s had outside posts to deal with, so she should show her best stuff today with a better post—and I’m sure that last race on dirt was a prep. GRADE: C.
#8 MUNNY GRAB (10/1) tried turf for the first time last time, and she ran the race of her life—but it was still only good enough for fifth. In her defense, it was a stakes race, and she was too far off a glacial pace, yet she still managed to pass a few horses. She can do better with a pace to run at. GRADE: B.
#9 SHE PROSPERS (30/1) just broke her maiden on synth. This seems like an ambitious spot. GRADE: X.
#1 CAMERA (7/2), who is coupled with her Eclipse stablemate, cost $1 million, so there are expectations here, but she has never been on turf, and she likes to be on or near the lead, and I’m having a hard time seeing anyone wire this field. GRADE: C.
#10 MOST OF ALL (20/1), the first Mott trainee, has blah dirt form, but they thought enough of her to try her in a Grade 2. She did try turf once, and it didn’t go well. She would be a surprise. GRADE: X.
#11 AGRA (8/1), the second Mott charge, looks a lot better than her stablemate, since she is entering this off a decent prep in her first turf route try. Still, she needs a step forward to beat the best in here. GRADE: C.
#12 TINA BALLERINA (12/1) got a perfect trip in her maiden breaker, and then she just ran evenly in her first try versus winners. She can do better in her third start off the bench, but if she tries to stalk from a wide position, she’s toast. GRADE: X.
#1A SOURCE (GB) (7/2), the second part of the coupled Eclipse entry, “won going away” in her debut on the synth in France last November. Clearly, someone saw something he/she really liked because she shows up here on a big day, trying turf for the first time. I bet she turns out to be a nice one, but she is going to need a lot of things to go right for her from out here, and 7/2 doesn’t excite me. GRADE: C.
#2 GOLDEN DEGREE—entered for Main Track Only.
#2B JUST MUSIC—entered for Main Track Only.