2024 Kentucky Derby Pace Analysis

From ThoroPACE

Tyler is here with a look at the 2024 Kentucky Derby Prep races and how the pace of those races will impact this edition of the Run for the Roses. But first…

PTF and JK just released a new video on the ITM YouTube Channel where they discuss the expected pace of the 2024 Kentucky Derby. Make sure to check it out and while you’re there, please subscribe. Also, leave a comment - Who will be on the lead going into the first turn on Saturday?

***While you’re there, watch the Kentucky Oaks video too!

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Before we look ahead to the 150th Kentucky Derby, let’s take a look back.

First, here is a quick reminder about our pace scale. ThoroPACE Pace Forecasts range from -35 (favors speed runners) to +35 (favors stretch runners). 

With that in mind, the table below lays out the ThoroPACE Pace Figure assigned to each of the 2024 Kentucky Derby Prep Races. 

When reviewing the Kentucky Derby Prep races, I first look for extremes—those races assigned a ThoroPACE Pace Figure color-coded in dark red or blue.

But that’s not the entire story, as we’ll discuss via the Louisiana Derby.

There’s no reason to bury the lede—the top two betting choices, FIERCENESS and SIERRA LEONE, were Pace Advantaged in their last race. Without appropriate context, most people would interpret the pair as being downgraded. We’ll get into that.

FIERCENESS – Florida Derby

Let’s start at the top. Fierceness is the likely Kentucky Derby favorite and exits a winning effort in the Florida Derby – a race with a Pace Figure of -29. This was a race that should have favored speed horses. And it did. Again, Fierceness will have a Pace Advantaged designation heading into Saturday’s race.

Fierceness broke alertly and won in wire-to-wire fashion. No matter which speed figure service you reference, this race was fast. But, it was earned under ideal circumstances.

And it’s unlikely he’ll see those conditions on Saturday. Fierceness is ideally drawn, with the other speed horses to his inside. Still, he’ll either be wide and in the clear or need to be used early to secure the lead.

CATALYTIC and GRAND MO THE FIRST sat just behind the eventual winner but were no match for the 2YO Champion off the second turn. Perhaps the result is an indictment of the field he beat instead of an endorsement of Fierceness's performance.

SIERRA LEONE – Blue Grass Stakes 

This year’s running of the Blue Grass Stakes was assigned a final ThoroPACE Pace Figure of +29. At first call, Sierra Leone was roughly seven lengths off the fast pace set by his stablemate, Top Connor.

While Sierra Leone got the setup required for his running style, he swung wide off the turn and paddled his way to a decisive victory. He, too, earned the Pace Advantaged designation. But, as we’ll discuss, he’s far from a toss.

Two other starters exit this race. DORNOCH and JUST A TOUCH. Both are worth discussing. 

Prior to the Blue Grass Stakes, Dornoch was sent to the lead early, resulting in three consecutive winning efforts. Interestingly, he was rated this time around at Keeneland. It didn’t work. Who knows what tactics they’ll employ on Saturday? The connections voiced their intention to send the horse, and the rail draw seemingly forced their hand. Still, the latest workout, where he was rated behind a mate, sends mixed messages. Dornoch will have a say in the race's outcome, though it’s hard to see him in the frame at the wire.

Just A Touch is a well-bred son of Justify, the horse that broke the “Apollo Curse.” This is Relevant because Just A Touch didn’t make the races until January. In The Blue Grass, he was prominent throughout, got first jump on the pacesetter, and finished strongly in defeat. While this race didn’t exactly fall apart, he will enter the Kentucky Derby with a Pace Disadvantaged designation—a theoretical upgrade. 

RESILIENCE – Wood Memorial

RESILIENCE, a progressive type trained by Bill Mott, won the 2024 Wood Memorial Stakes. The race was assigned a +29 ThoroPACE Pace Figure, which should have benefited stretch runners (closers).

The Wood was a slow race according to figure makers, except for BRIS, which was a clear outlier. 

The pace was fast, and Resilience was relatively close, which means this could have been a better-than-looked effort. 

As for those behind him, notably, SOCIETY MAN, they’d be hard to endorse going forward.

DOMESTIC PRODUCT – Tampa Bay Derby

From a ThoroPACE Pace Figure standpoint, the Tampa Bay Derby was the slowest of all prep races. DOMESTIC PRODUCT got the job done in a race with a Pace Figure of -32 (very speed favoring) - Despite being about three lengths off the early lead.

Essentially, it unfolded like a turf race that was run on dirt. So maybe it’s no surprise that a Chad Brown horse won.

By all accounts, this was a slow race. However, it likely doesn’t fully capture the winner's ability. Domestic Product was borderline to receive the Pace Disadvantaged designation.

Two back, Domestic Product finished ahead of Fierceness (the only horse in the field with that claim) in another race that favored speed types with a final Pace Figure of -32.0

His pedigree doesn’t scream 10F, and he’d need a Beyer jump of 20+ points, but he’s got outstanding connections, will be a big price, and is likely to face a much more favorable pace scenario in the Kentucky Derby. Finally, he arguably outworked his more fancied stablemate, Sierra Leone, on Saturday morning.

Domestic Product seems very live.

CATCHING FREEDOM – Louisiana Derby

The 2024 Louisiana Derby was assigned a neutral, +3 ThoroPACE Pace Figure. So, in theory, there’s not much to discuss about this race from a pace perspective. Not so fast.

CATCHING FREEDOM, the eventual winner, was nine lengths from the lead early in this race. HONOR MARIE was a couple of lengths and positions ahead. That one seemed to make the first move, but when Prat called on the Brad Cox trainee, he had a bit more punch.

Both of these horses have plenty of supporters. And both have a running style that would seemingly benefit from the likely pace scenario in the Kentucky Derby.

TRACK PHANTOM was the pacesetter in the Louisiana Derby and will add blinkers on Saturday. While no match for the top pair, he ran a solid race. Following his work on Sunday, trainer Steve Asmussen seemed pleased but commented that he’d “be very surprised to see him on the lead.” Our data is objective and doesn’t factor in trainer/jockey intent - so this horse is a tough read. And that complicates the overall picture of the race because he’d otherwise be our projected leader. He doesn’t have to be a pace casualty and might stick around for a long time.

Final Thoughts on The Kentucky Derby

The intent here was not to pick a winner per se. I wanted to walk through some of the Derby preps, highlighting horses that might offer value and others that might be vulnerable.

Even if we don’t consider the Japanese runners, the ThoroPACE Forecast for the 2024 Kentucky Derby is +35. Since T O PASSWORD appears to be a forward type, this race looks like it will be plenty fast early - especially following the post-position draw. 

For context, our ThoroPACE Forecast for the 2023 Kentucky Derby was +26.3, and the final Pace Figure was +23.1 (pretty much spot on). Additionally, the 2022 Kentucky Derby was assigned a +35 final Pace Figure.

Entering the biggest race of the year, our data suggests that the top two horses are downgrades, both coming off divisive victories. At least on the surface.

The beauty of ThoroPACE is that it’s contextual. If the race is anywhere near +35, it’s hard to back Fierceness as the favorite. Conversely, Sierra Leone, a deep closer, might actually get a better setup in the derby. Both were Pace Advantaged in their last race, but for very different reasons.

Fierceness just might be too good for these but it seems clear he will need to do something he’s never done before on Saturday.

Catching Freedom certainly feels like a reliable horse that could be used as a key in vertical wagers. His stablemate, Just A Touch, is a viable win candidate.

Based on our analysis, Domestic Product is clearly the value of the race.

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