2023 Breeders' Cup Wagering Strategies
Budgets of $250 - $500 - $1000
*Note - This is long but hopefully worth your time. The events of the past few weeks serve as a reminder of the fragility of these equine athletes, so assuming you have some success this week, do your part and donate to a reputable aftercare charity. Thanks - Tyler
If you like this format, make sure to like the post! This year, I’ve enlisted help with the Wagering Strategies. Eric DeCoster, the guy who demolished the Kentucky Downs meet, will be offering his thoughts and strategies to supplement the guide.
Ticket construction and overall wagering strategy are topics that clearly deserve more attention. However, the appropriate wagering strategy mainly depends on one’s budget and goals. The number of iterations is limitless, and as a result, it’s a topic that most pundits mostly ignore.
Most of the current talk (primarily on social media) on the subject comes as harsh criticism instead of constructive feedback. That is, the keyboard warriors assume they know what’s best for you despite having no knowledge of your bankroll and expectations. We’ll refer to them as the EV (expected value) Police. If they’re reading this, I expect to receive plenty of flack - I actually welcome it.
Along with Eric, I plan to cover a few different budgets for the Breeders’ Cup cards. We will outline approaches for budgets of $250, $500, and $1,000.
To understand the wagering strategy, we must explain our handicapping opinions so you can see how we plan to leverage them at the windows. You may disagree with our handicapping but might be able to gain insights into how we think through bet construction. Put differently, the idea here isn’t that you tail our suggestions but that you take your opinions and, hopefully, think about the best way to spend your budget.
Before we jump in, I want to provide a couple of generalities about bankroll management.
Review your Records
Regular ITM listeners know the importance of keeping wagering records. Luckily, most ADWs do the work for you.
Spend some time digging in and identifying your strengths. Specifically, you’ll want to arm yourself with your ROI by wager type. Generally, this is readily available and allows you to identify areas of strength and weakness.
Simplify your Approach
Part of the allure of Breeders’ Cup weekend to most horseplayers is that most races feature bulky, competitive fields and larger-than-normal pools. As a result, the payoffs can be huge, but do recognize the level of difficulty increases exponentially.
If you’re a horizontal player who likes to play the Pick 5, consider playing the Pick 4 instead. Likewise, if you typically only wager on the Pick 4, try focusing on the Pick 3.
By simplifying your usual approach, you might miss out on a larger score, but given a limited bankroll, it’s more likely that you might be undercapitalized and whiff entirely if you stick with your standard approach. This my annual reminder that the takeout on losing wagers is 100%.
If you disagree with this suggestion, surely you can agree not to go the other way. That is, if you’re usually a Pick 4 player, don’t be tempted by the Pick 5 or 6.
And the Breeders’ Cup is certainly not a time to forget about the simplest weapon in the wagering arsenal - The win bet.
Maximize your Opinions
It’s hard for many horseplayers to pass races once you’ve handicapped them and formed an opinion. This is true on a Thursday, let alone two of the biggest days the sport has to offer.
But it’s unlikely that your opinion is equally strong in all of the races, and a disciplined approach can be the difference between a winning and losing weekend.
You don’t need to participate in every Pick 3 or Pick 4. Identify your strongest opinions and figure out the best way to exploit that opinion in the pools.
To be clear, I’m not suggesting you limit your bankroll. Instead, I’m advocating that you wager in accordance with the strength of your opinion.
Don’t be a Hero
This will seem somewhat contradictory to what I just suggested, and it is, to a degree.
The Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup cards offer the most acceptable opportunities to spread.
Thus, a balanced approach using the last two concepts is generally my strategy for these big days.
Tyler’s Handicapping Assessment
Again, for the wagering strategies to make sense, we need to explain where we stand from a handicapping standpoint.
Opinions:
Juvenile Turf Sprint - Generally speaking, I don’t like Turf Sprints. Big Evs looks solid. Of the Weaver horses, I prefer No Nay Mets and Crimson Advocate. I won’t need to worry about ground loss, but I might be faced with backing several underlaid horses. No strong opinion here.
Juvenile Fillies - Tamara looks formidable but isn’t without questions. She must conquer two turns, which isn’t a guarantee. Likely upsetters won’t offer much value. I do wonder if Scalable could offer some value underneath.
Juvenile Fillies Turf - Carla’s Way looks well-meant. She Feels Pretty is tough to back as a short priced favorite, but her race at Woodbine was impressive. Gala Brand likely represents the value of the race. Specifically, the Mott trained filly closed into a glacial pace in the Ms Grillo (-32 on ThoroPACE) - her setup should be much different here. Finally, trainer Phil Bauer is no stranger to success, though shipping to California might be out of his comfort zone.